Here's one good thing about airing the Olympics during a recession: People are desperate to embrace something they can feel good about. While these Games haven't received nearly the buildup of those of past years, when buzz began building weeks in advance, media people expect they will perform decently, beginning with tonight's opening ceremonies. Like the 2002 Games in Salt Lake City that drew huge numbers, the Games are airing in North America and on the heels of a tough time for Americans. In '02, the Games came after the 9/11 attacks. This year they come as the country fights out of a battering recession. Sports have a way of bringing people together when things seem grim. Ratings for the most recent Super Bowl, World Series, NBA finals and NHL finals all rose over last year. Americans likely will rally around whatever positive stories come out of the Olympics, whether it's a good showing by one of the hockey teams or an unexpected medal in one of the skiing events. That may not lift ratings to '02 levels, but it should ensure that NBC meets its ratings guarantees to advertisers and gets broad exposure for all the new shows it plans to promote during the Games.  Veteran media analyst Karen McCallum, storyteller at Cliffdweller Productions in Albuquerque, N.M., talks to Media Life about how the winter storms could lift viewership, why America wants a feel-good story, and why "American Idol" may still top the figure skaters.

What are your expectations for this year's Olympic viewership compared to years past?

My expectations for this year are favorable, especially in comparison of winter versus summer Olympics. Apples-to-apples, I’m expecting a solid performance for a variety of reasons.

First of all, there's the proximity of the venue. It’s a very similar time zone to most U.S. time zones, so there won’t be much tape delay and issues we’ve experienced with Beijing.

But I think the larger driving force behind my expectations is that Americans are desperate, and we’re looking for a win any way we can get it. So a gold medal for an American is a gold medal for all of us.

And I’m definitely seeing the competitors ramp up. They’re getting very sensational to try to peck at some of the viewership that NBC will gain as sort of a launch platform.


It seems as though the buzz for the Olympics has been somewhat quieted, perhaps in part because of the huge amount of Super Bowl buzz the past few weeks. Do you think that will hurt the Games at all?

I don’t think so. I definitely agree that I haven’t seen the lead time that I would typically expect. And one of the reasons was the timing of the Super Bowl. So that stole a little of its initial thunder.

But the world is a very right-now place. There are a variety of reasons why viewers aren’t planning ahead like they used to, but I don’t think that will detract from viewership for the Olympics.

It’s going to be water-cooler conversation. People will be talking about the winners and losers. Maybe you don’t have the buildup, but it will come.


The last Winter Olympics, NBC was beaten several times by regularly scheduled programming like "American Idol" and "Grey's Anatomy." Do you think the competing networks will score such victories again?

I do. I don’t think the Olympics will win every time period every day.

But overall they remain a solid platform. They will have a significant impact on the February sweeps. That will mix the story up a bit when you look at ratings on an overall basis.


Are other networks attempting to compete more with the Olympics than in the past?

I’ve seen that more on a local basis, particularly with the news. The sensational aspect of the stories appears to be directly competitive with the benefit NBC’s news receives with the Olympics. I’m really seeing that more than usual, nobody’s walking away from the competition this time.


Could the snowstorms that are keeping people inside their homes the past couple days on the East Coast help viewership? That is, might people watch the Opening Ceremonies tonight and some events tomorrow, then get so interested that it keeps them watching after the snow is gone?

I do think the weather will have an impact on overall viewership. That’s nothing different than what we’ve ever seen.

For example, anytime you hit daylight savings time people are outside and watching less TV. Conversely, we’ve had storms and people can’t get out, and it’s freezing. People may curl up with a cup of hot chocolate on the sofa and watch the Olympics. That bodes well for NBC and it bodes well for advertisers.


NBC has already said it is going to lose money on these Games. What would constitute a successful Olympics for them?

The answer is within the target demographics.

The Olympics represent a success because of the penetration into traditionally hard-to-reach demos, including CEOs and affluent and well-educated viewers, which are hard to capture with traditional broadcast programming. For advertisers seeking that demo, the Olympics will still be a win for NBC.


How much of a lift will their new shows premiering after the Games get from Olympic promos?

That’s the other way in which NBC will benefit, just as CBS used the Super Bowl to launch “Undercover Boss.” It’s a platform to draw attention to new programming.

I would expect at least a 5 percent boost, which in this day in age, when people are scrambling for a tenth of rating point, is good.

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