Last year, 93.2 million Americans tuned in to watch the Super Bowl, a healthy audience for sure, and this year that figure stands to be topped as the New York Giants meet the undefeated New England Patriots.
Media Life readers believe the Patriots will win, agreeing with the odds-makers, but they see the big winner as Fox, which is broadcasting Sunday's Game.
In a survey posted yesterday, Media Life asked readers how big the audience for the game would be and fully half said it would set a new record, drawing 95.1 million or more, topping last year's 93.2 million.
Nearly three fourths, 72 percent, thought the game would pull in more viewers than the record 94.1 million who watch the 1996 game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
That's so even though most seem to think New England will gain a historic win. Two thirds of respondents give the game to the Patriots.
It's a given, proven out over years, that blowout Super Bowl games tend to do less well in the ratings than close ones.
And that's certainly the belief of many media planners and buyers. Asked to name the key factor in strong Super Bowl ratings, almost half, 46 percent cited the closeness of the game.
That ranks just behind the quality of the matchup--popular teams from major markets, at 48 percent, which is certainly the case for Sunday's game. That's consistent with findings in prior Media Life Super Bowl polls.
Interestingly, while so much is made of the Super Bowl commercials, few media planners and buyers think the ads have much to do with ratings for the event.
Just 2.5 percent agreed with the statement: "Another year of stupid ads and viewers will tune out early." That's also consistent with the results of earlier polls.
Sunday's most anticipated advertiser? Budweiser by a country mile.
Asked whose commercials readers most anticipated, they chose Bud by a wide margin, 61 percent. Pepsi came in a distant second at 16 percent.
That's consistent with prior years but more the case this year. Bud last year got 42 percent of the vote and 47 percent in 2006.
This year 56 percent of respondents plan to watch the game at home, which is consistent with prior years.
Yet more people say they will not watch the game, despite all the hype it's getting. This year that figure is 3.4 percent. Last year it was just 0.8 percent. In 2006, 7.7 percent said they would not be watching the game.
Come Monday, all the talk will be over the Patriots' victory and whether it's the best team in NFL history, in the view of 62 percent of respondents, way ahead of talk of the game itself, which came in at just 28 percent.
This year, certainly more than past years, media buyers think the Super Bowl is a good deal for advertisers.
Media Life asked readers: Prices for 30-second Super Bowl ads averaged a record high $2.7 million this year. Do you think that price is worth the money? Why or why not? What have you advised your clients about the Super Bowl?
Writes one: "As more people use DVR machines, this event is a must-watch live event where viewers tune in to see the special commercials AND viewers are trapped because they need to see what happens NOW, and not the next day.”
Writes another: “Yes. The Super Bowl is just that, super. Even ratings that are slightly below average are still spectacular.”
And another: “Yes, simply because it'll be the most viewed ever. Exposure doesn't get any bigger.”
Here are some of the other comments posted by readers:
“Absolutely worth the money. Short of soccer's World Cup, it's the most watched sporting event in the world. This year may prove to be the most-watched football game -- ever. It is a world-class marquee event for catching eyeballs whether it's converting new customers, building a brand, launching a new product or upstaging a competitor.”
“Yes because of the WGA strike.”
“If the agency and client play it right, the commercial's post-game buzz will make it well worthwhile.”
“Normally I would say no, but because the behind the scenes intrigue of this game is so large, the delivery will be better than years past.”
“It is only worth the money for certain brands who have built equity with the Super Bowl, like Bud, Pepsi, Doritos. For most brands it is not worth the money nor the trade-offs to other parts of the media plan that need to be made.”