Sports sorts are of the mind that Pittsburgh will walk all over Arizona in Sunday's Super Bowl, and blowouts have a way of translating into low ratings for whichever network is broadcasting the game. But media planners and buyers are not so sure of either a blowout or a tumble in ratings that would likely result.
Nearly two thirds of Media Life readers think the Steelers will win on Sunday, but more than a third, 37 percent, are giving the game to the Cardinals.
And while readers don't think the game will be close to last year's record tune-in--that game averaged 97.5 million total viewers--they think it will do decently for NBC, according to a Media Life poll posted earlier this week.
Nearly two thirds think the game will draw at least 91.1 million, and the largest share, 23 percent, think it will draw 91.1 million to 93 million viewers, while 20 percent think it will draw 95.1 million or more, putting it just under last year's game.
Some 12 percent think it will do even better than last year.
These numbers are significant because media people are particularly adept at predicting Super Bowl audiences. In more years than not, they come very close to getting it right. Last year, nearly three quarters of respondents in a similar Media Life poll predicted that game would set a new record.
Why this year's game will do well, in the opinion of readers, is who's playing, and that's the Steelers. While not a big-market team as such, the team is a popular one with a national following, and that's what counts, according to most readers.
Asked what makes for a good Super Bowl game, 53 percent agreed with this statement: "The matchup. If you don't have a popular big-market team, you don't have a game." Not far behind, at 39 percent, was this statement: "The game itself. If it's not close, people will drift away."
While much is made of the ads leading into each year's Super Bowl, media planners and buyers don't think the ads have any effect whatsoever on tune-in. Just 2 percent agreed with this statement: "The commercials. In a year of stupid ads, viewers will tune out early."
As for which commercials readers most anticipate, the Budweiser ads come out tops, as they do every year. This year 52 percent chose the Bud ads, while last year that figure was 60 percent. The year before it was 42 percent but still way ahead of anything else.
Interestingly, this year's No. 2 is Go Daddy at 16 percent, even though NBC cleared the ads with no objections, depriving the domain-name seller from all the pre-game publicity of prior years over its battles to win network approval.
Fully 90 percent of respondents plan to watch the game, with the largest share, 44 percent, watching at home. A slighter smaller number, 39 percent, plan to watch it at a party, while 8 percent plan on watching the game at a bar or restaurant.
Last year, 96 percent of respondents said they planned to watch the game, and the year before that figure was 99 percent.
In the post-game slot, NBC will be airing an episode of "The Office," and readers think the show will do well, perhaps even better than "House" did for Fox last year.
That show averaged 29 million viewers.
The largest share of readers, 44 percent, think "Office" will draw between 25.1 million to 30 million viewers, and 25 percent think it will top 30 million.
Fewer than a third, 31 percent, think the show will average under 25 million viewers.
