Buyers: CBS
will lose NCAA tourney
Most think the NCAA will opt out of its contract
By Louisa Ada Seltzer
Mar 18, 2010
CBS should savor this NCAA tournament. It could be the last one it televises for a long time.
That's the feeling of media buyers and planners responding to a survey Media Life ran earlier this week on March Madness.
Most, 57.8 percent, believe that the NCAA will opt out of its contract with CBS following next month's men's basketball final in hopes of pursuing a more lucrative cable deal.
Just 24.4 percent think the NCAA will not exercise its opt-out option, while 17.8 percent were unsure.
If the NCAA does opt out of the contract, the games will be headed to cable, readers predict, but not in a joint CBS-Turner Networks deal that's rumored to be on the table.
Instead, the majority of readers, 55.6 percent, predict that ESPN and sister network ABC will make a successful combination bid for the tournament. Another 28.9 percent think ESPN itself will win the rights.
A mere 13.3 percent believe CBS and Turner will earn the contract, while 2.2 percent think Fox will have the winning bid.
The buzz is that the NCAA will opt out of the contract in part in order to expand the field of teams from 65 to 96.
Asked to weigh in on that plan, 71.1 percent of readers said they think it is a bad idea, agreeing with this statement: "The field is already too diluted -- who wants to watch Big Sky versus NEC in the first round?"
Just over 13 percent think it is a good plan, choosing, "The more the merrier, and the more viewers who will want to watch their alma maters compete." Another 15.6 percent are not sure if it is a good or bad idea.
Most media people think that CBS has done a good job with the tournament, with 68.9 percent agreeing with this statement: "They do an excellent job toggling between the close games during the early rounds, their in-studio team offers great analysis, and announcers say what’s on their minds, no matter who they offend."
The other 31.1 percent say CBS "wait[s] too long to switch to close games from blowouts and their in-studio team is too long-winded."
CBS has also done a very good job of pumping up and improving March Madness on Demand, the live streaming site.
Asked to rate the success of MMOD on a scale of 1 to 10, nearly a third of buyers gave it an 8, with 13.6 percent rating it a 9 and 4.5 percent giving it a 10. Just 6.8 percent gave it a 3 or lower.
If this is indeed CBS's last year televising March Madness, the network will at least go out with decent ratings. Only 22.7 percent of readers think ratings will be down compared to last year.
Nearly 41 percent believe ratings will rise, citing increases for other top-flight sporting events in recent months, while 36.4 percent say ratings will be even to last year.
Of course some of those other top-flight events have become way too overhyped compared to March Madness, according to media people.
Asked which sporting event has become the most overhyped, 27.9 percent chose the Super Bowl, with the NBA finals close behind at 25.6 percent. The Daytona 500 was third at 18.6 percent, followed by the World Series at 14 percent. Less than 12 percent chose March Madness.
That may be because media people are fairly rabid NCAA tournament fans themselves. Almost 56 percent said they plan to watch most of the tourney, surfing for scores at work and turning on the games the moment they walk in the door.
Thirty-seven percent said they'll watch the tourney "if nothing better is on," while 7 percent of readers are so devoted they will be watching at work when they're sure the boss isn't watching them.
In fact, 40 percent of Media Life readers say they will use MMOD to keep up with the games, second among all new media devices.
Eighty percent of respondents intend to check scores online, while 36.7 percent will get scores on their mobile devices.
Nearly 27 percent will check out online highlight reels, and 20 percent will use free mobile apps, with just 6.7 percent saying they'll pay for the premium mobile app.
As for what brands make the most sense for an NCAA buy, readers had varied responses to the open-ended question.
Most said brands targeting men, including cars and beer, and several suggested luxury upscale brands and fast food.
But one buyer had a bit of advice for advertisers if the field should expand: "If it goes to 96, get out."
Finally, as to who will win the tournament, buyers seem confident that top seed Kansas will prevail. Fifty-one percent chose the Jayhawks to win their second title in three years, with Kentucky coming in a distant second at 22.2 percent.
Just over 13 percent chose Syracuse, and 6.7 percent picked Duke. Beware of the Big East: Several people also wrote in Big East champ West Virginia.
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