Who's really
time-shifting? Not just kids.
The biggest users of DVRs are 50 to 65 years old
By Toni Fitzgerald
Aug 12, 2010
There's a perception that DVR users are generally a young bunch, in their 20s and 30s, and that's why the median age for time-shifted viewing is a decade younger than the live viewing age. But actually the heaviest DVR users are ages 50-64. Thus it's more a case of who's not time-shifting that accounts for the lower median age. People over age 65 do very little time-shifting, but they do a lot of live TV watching, and so time-shifted viewership tends to be younger because it does not have that group pushing the median age up. That's just one of the observations in the latest median age report by veteran researcher Steve Sternberg, written for Baseline, a New York Times company. The report finds that the CW remains the youngest-skewing network, at 33, followed by Univision at 36, Fox at 44, NBC at 49, ABC at 51 and CBS at 55. NBC aged the most from the previous year, up two years, while CBS and ABC each aged a year. The CW, Fox and Univision were even to the previous year. Sternberg, who blogs at www.thesternbergreport.com, talks to Media Life about who's getting older, who may get younger, and why cable has an impact on broadcast.
Obviously you've been doing this report annually for a long time. What stood out to you from this year's report as most surprising or most interesting?
I think the thing that stands out most is that the average time-shifted median age remains about 10 years younger than the live median age.
And it's not really because DVR users are young. The heaviest DVR users are actually 50-64, but viewers 65-plus do very little time-shifting, and that's what brings the average median age down.
What's the most important thing that media buyers and planners can take from this report?
The broadcast networks seem to care more about the network standings than increasing their actual audience base. That's how they can keep aging and not do anything about it.
As long as a network wins among adults 18-49, no one seems to mind that half their audience is actually over 50. Media buyers and planners generally play into this, and as long as they don't put any pressure on the broadcast nets to get younger, they have no incentive to do so.
What trends in median age will you be following closely over the next year?
As DVR penetration increases, will the 10-year gap between live and time-shifted median ages during primetime start to narrow? I doubt it. Will Fox's average median age start to approach 50? Will any network manage to lower its median age? Which cable networks will have significant median age shifts?
Do you foresee any network's median age rising or falling based on prospects for fall's new shows? Why or why not?
ABC has a chance with "No Ordinary Family," "My Generation," and "Better with You." But those might be offset by "Body of Proof" and "The Whole Truth."
NBC might have the best shot at lowering its median age with "Undercovers," "The Event" and "Outsourced," and "The Apprentice" is usually on the under-50 side.
Have there been any shows over recent years that really had a big effect on a network's median age -- i.e. a show that was either much older or younger than the rest of the shows on the network?
ABC's "Dancing with the Stars," the network's oldest-skewing program, which airs twice a week, has contributed to ABC aging. Not just because it skews older, but because it also has an aging effect on whatever follows it. Other reality shows, like "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition," "Supernanny," "Wife Swap" and "The Bachelor," have aged dramatically over the past five years.
NBC, when they had multiple "Deal or No Deals" and "Datelines," started to age. And five nights of Jay Leno last season did not help NBC get younger. Game shows usually have median ages approaching 50 or higher, so scheduling more game shows might be less expensive, but it contributes to aging.
How do programming trends influence the networks' median ages? How have you seen that play out the past four seasons?
Except for the young-skewing CW, comedies are often the youngest series on the broadcast networks. Over the past few seasons we've had record-low numbers of comedies. Note that last season, "Modern Family," "Cougar Town" and "The Middle" were among ABC's youngest shows.
Serial dramas and sci-fi also tend to skew younger--ABC's "Lost" and "Grey's Anatomy" and NBC's "Heroes" were among their youngest-skewing programs. Both genres seem to be on the outs with the broadcast nets, in favor of procedurals and self-contained dramas, which tend to skew older.
And of course the influx of reality and game shows, always among the oldest-skewing genres, had a heavy influence on network median ages.
Why do you think NBC actually has the potential to get younger this coming year?
It's all based on programming. Its Thursday comedies remain young, "The Biggest Loser" remains the youngest-skewing reality show on the nets, and doesn't seem to be aging.
New series "The Event," "Undercovers" and "Outsourced" could all have median ages under 50 and five hours of Jay Leno, with median ages ranging from 51 to 56, should be replaced by younger series.
How has cable contributed to broadcast's graying?
A decade ago, the average home could receive only 60 TV channels, compared to roughly 140 today. During that same time, the percentage of homes that could receive 100 or more channels rose from 10 percent to 70 percent.
At the same time, there are more and more original cable series -- both scripted and unscripted -- which didn't really exist 10 years ago. There are now 35 cable networks that have average primetime median ages under 45.
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