There were arguably only two breakout hits on broadcast last season, NBC’s “Heroes” and ABC’s “Ugly Betty,” and online market research company BrandIntel correctly predicted both of them based on preseason online buzz. Now the company has released its buzz-tracking numbers for this fall season, and it looks like ABC is in good shape again. The network has the two most-anticipated shows, “Grey’s Anatomy” spinoff “Private Practice” and the drama “Pushing Daisies,” according to BrandIntel’s analysis of online discussions on blogs and social media sites over the past three months. BrandIntel also found that this fall’s new shows are generating much more excitement than last year's, with discussions about them up 300 percent compared with this time last year. That should prove a comfort to the broadcast networks, which saw sharp viewership declines last spring and are just now ending a disappointing summer. Michael Coristine, BrandIntel’s media analyst, talks to Media Life about why buzz is up, what shows will be the big fall hits, and why CW’s “Gossip Girl” could be among them.
You found that discussion of the fall season has jumped 300 percent over last year. What do you attribute that to?
The networks have done a great job in releasing rich content (e.g., previews) much earlier than last year.
This has allowed potential viewers to become more engaged in the major characters, as well as many unknown actors, much sooner than in past years. The end result is a much greater platform for positive word-of-mouth to spread.
Does that bode well for this fall's crop of new shows?
Anytime viewers have more time to become emotionally invested in characters, as well as storylines, their engagement in a given show is significantly higher. More time to build engagement among potential viewers can only help the new fall offerings.
Two ABC shows, "Pushing Daisies" and "Private Practice," are the two most-anticipated programs. What's the buzz on these two shows, and why are they getting so much attention?
“Private Practice” is getting buzz mostly due to its “Grey's Anatomy” association and cast, although there are some nervous rumblings, based on the reshoots and rumored unsatisfactory pilot among many potential viewers. Bottom line, the show should have a lot of people sampling it out of curiosity, but there are many skeptics who might quickly bail on the show if it disappoints.
“Pushing” is popular based on the quirky charm/feel of the show, its vibrant previews and the underrated cast of unknowns who have resonated well from previews. While many are optimistic, some fear that it may be too high-concept, but a healthy amount of viewers should be giving it a chance.
By contrast, NBC's "Bionic Woman" is also receiving lots of buzz but not all of it is positive. What is driving the buzz, and what does it mean for the show?
Guest star Isaiah Washington, who was fired from “Grey’s Anatomy” for using a gay slur, was driving a lot of the word-of-mouth, but this doesn't necessarily help or hurt the show. Awareness does not equal intent to view.
“Bionic Woman” has a lot of curious viewers, but the overall feeling is that it could go either way at this point.
Why has ABC’s sitcom "Cavemen" plunged so far in discussion volume?
There was a novelty associated with the strong awareness from the Geico commercials. However, intent to view was always low, based on the previews, which many viewed as not being funny.
It is as simple as that. The show has not made people laugh so far, and it is running out of time to reverse the negative word of mouth.
You found that comedies in general are not generating as much consumer discussion as in the past. Do you attribute this to the small number of new sitcoms, or the low quality of the ones being introduced?
Definitely the low number of sitcoms. Most of the sitcoms, especially “Back to You” and “Samantha Who,” are scoring well in sentiment.
Based on these data, which show do you see as fall's breakout hit? And which one do you think could really surprise people?
In addition to “Practice,” CBS’s “Cane,” Fox’s “Back to You,” ABC’s “Big Shots,” “Daisies” and NBC’s “Chuck.”
ABC’s “Dirty Sexy Money” should be a big hit, based on the healthy balance of demographic discussion and its high sentiment across the board. (The cast and recent previews have been well-received.)
CW’s “Gossip Girl” could surprise. What may have been perceived as a niche show for females aged 14-24 has also been generating strong word-of-mouth from females aged 25-34 and males under 34.
If it can capitalize on its unopposed premiere on Sept. 19 at 9 p.m., it has a chance to build out its audience before having to deal with “Practice” and “Bionic” on the 26th.