The recession is having an impact far beyond how much money we have in the bank and whether we’ll be approved for a home equity loan. In the coming year, it will also influence all manner of consumers’ entertainment and leisure-time activities, as well as their careers, politics and home life. That’s according to the fourth annual trends forecast from JWT, which predicts that the recession will be key to understanding consumer behavior in 2009. Among the trends the study predicts: career reinvention as more people find themselves unemployed; the joy of simple living, such as enjoying a quiet cup of coffee; the small movement, toward downsized versions of cars, mobile phones or packaged goods; and the layering of different forms of media. Ann Mack, director of trendspotting at JWT, talks to Media Life about determining what trends are in, why authenticity matters during a recession, and what good things could come out of it.

 
How did you go about determining these trends?
 
I’m constantly out in the field, crisscrossing the globe, observing, listening and talking to influencers and experts of every stripe from those in publishing, music and politics to technology, beauty and art. I also tap into a global network of trendscouts who keep me up to date on developments in their region and/or country and inform me of if and how the trends I’m identifying here are translating there.
 
We also have very robust quantitative and qualitative methodologies that help to put real weight behind our observations.
 

What's going to be the biggest influencing factor on 2009?
 
Put simply: the economy. The financial fallout is far and wide, and next year promises no improvement. As a result, the state of the economy has influenced a number of our trends.
 
In 2009, we’ll see more consumer coping strategies dealing with the downturn. Among them is taking stock of simple pleasures: People are increasingly savoring life experiences rather than just blindly buying and spending. Many will also be evaluating their career decisions, as increasing numbers of jobs are in peril or already lost.
 

How are next year's trends different from this year?
 
This year you can’t escape looking at our trends through the lens of the recession. 
 

You list one trend as "distraction as entertainment."  What does that mean, and why will it be important?
 
Understanding that people do more than one thing at a time, content creators are turning what could be a negative (distraction) into a positive (an immersive experience). By layering a multitude of media into entertainment, they are creating content designed for simultaneous consumption and engagement.
 
So you have authors, like “Twilight’s” Stephanie Meyer, suggesting playlists to accompany her books. And you have game developers allowing for simultaneous game-playing, music-listening and social networking.

As a result, the bar in entertainment has been raised: Tech-savvy consumers are starting to expect that their entertainment will be a multimedia experience. Increasingly, books, music, video games and television programs extend the fan experience into other media, allowing readers, listeners, players and viewers to truly immerse themselves in an entertainment bubble.

More artists and creative producers will be required to get comfortable expressing themselves in a range of media.
 

We've heard people herald mobile devices as the next big thing before. Why will 2009 really be a breakout year for them?
 
The mobile device is becoming the “everything hub.” And what is driving this movement is the expansion of wireless broadband availability and the drop in the cost of advanced mobile phones.
 
Smart-phone penetration will start to reach critical mass (by 2012, sales of smart phones will exceed 700 million in the global market, as compared to about 190 million today, according to a Gartner Research projection). And standardized royalty-free open-source mobile platforms, such as Nokia’s Symbian or Google’s Android, will drive the smart phone’s dominance of the mobile market. If successful, these operating systems may lead to cheaper smart phones and increased functionality as developers can more easily create applications that function on a wide range of phones.
 
And finally, people are ready for it: They’re accessing retail web sites through their mobiles, conducting phone-based internet searches, not to mention emailing, taking and storing photos, playing MP3s and video, gaming and navigating (with GPS-equipped phones).
 

How can media people capitalize on the importance of recessionary living and simple pleasures next year?
 
Even before the economy turned sour, 24/7 high-speed internet and multi-channel TV were delivering a more-than-you-can-consume menu of virtually everything that has ever been produced in the way of music, movies, video clips, TV shows, and newspaper and magazine articles, not to mention vast amounts of user-generated content (blogs, photos, forums).
 
With the economy getting weaker, there will be more people with time on their hands looking for low- to no-cost media to keep them informed—or take their minds off things. In home, television will be getting a boost as analog broadcasts are phased out and countries shift to digital broadcasting. On the other hand, it’s likely to be a tough year for media such as newspapers and magazines, especially at a time when much of their content or similar content can be found for free online.
 

Why will authenticity be so crucial for brands in 2009?
 
In the wake of a financial crisis that has seen established institutions topple overnight and many others teeter on the brink, authenticity will become paramount for brands as they look to regain credibility and trust. While this trend will be most apparent in the financial sector, it will surface across a range of categories.
 
With ongoing revelations of corporate greed and misdeeds in the media, people are growing increasingly skeptical of any brand’s claims, whether it peddles shampoo or retirement packages. People are seeking—and demanding—reliability and accountability. Marketers will need to work even harder to prove their brand is the authentic one above all, especially given that “authentic” has become such a misused and overused label.
 

You predict redistribution of power will also be a biggie. Where will we see it, and how will it influence us?
 
You will see it across almost every sphere: economic, political and social. This trend will have far-reaching implications.
 
In business, after many years of prioritizing profits and shareholder value, employee value will be due for an upgrade. Why? The productivity growth and rising corporate profits of recent years haven’t gone hand-in-hand with more employee spending power—just more consumer debt. But in the bigger scheme of things, if consumers aren’t earning decent money, they can’t spend, and that means poor sales and poor profits for business.
 
Meanwhile, in the social sphere, we will see accelerating shifts of power to women and to ethnic minorities. In global politics, fast-growing emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, China and India will increasingly have more influence and a bigger role in running the world’s international organizations.
 

What's the most important thing media people can keep in mind regarding these trends in the new year?
 
For businesses, one of the guiding principles will be the pleasure/price ratio. Which properties in a given portfolio offer the greatest scope for real pleasure at an affordable price? How can the pleasure element be upped without significantly raising the cost?
 
Also, you have to keep in mind that, where there is adversity, there is opportunity. Some of the best business ideas and innovations come out of desperate times. So having open-mindedness can lead to great possibilities.