Perception: Eleven weeks into the writers' strike, and two weeks into the midseason, the broadcast networks are about to take a tumble in the ratings as their hit scripted dramas and sitcoms go into reruns and they roll out a slew of makeshift reality shows in their place.
Reality: While a number of hit shows are in fact going into reruns, this midseason will actually see more new scripted series than last year, along with the increase in reality shows.
And while ratings will take a hit as top shows go into repeats, the greater number of replacement shows should fend off any dramatic slippage in ratings for at least several months, according to a new analysis of the strike's impact by Magna Global, the media buying giant.
In January and February, six new scripted shows will debut, compared to four last year, and four new reality shows are set to premiere, compared to two last year.
At worst, Magna predicts network ratings will dip by 5 percent below their pre-strike projections in January and February, or about the normal attrition rate for the broadcast networks as viewers move over to cable and other media options.
It's too early to say just how well the new midseason shows will hold up--many have yet to air--but those that have premiered peaked viewers' interest, pulling often hefty audiences for their premieres. So the appetite is there.
Among them are Fox’s “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles,” which debuted on Sunday to the best ratings for any new show in two years. That followed NBC’s “American Gladiators,” which debuted earlier this month as the top new show of the year to that point.
But also working in favor of the networks are returning shows.
And while some are modest performers, such as CBS’s “New Adventures of Old Christine” and ABC’s “According to Jim,” others are huge magnets for viewers, led by “American Idol,” which debuts tonight, and ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars,” which comes back in March.
Magna's rosier ratings outlook follows a fall in which the broadcast saw only modest declines in viewership, and none of it resulting from the strike.
On average, ratings were down 6 percent for all viewers from the prior year when counting viewing of shows as they originally aired and seen in playback within seven days of the original airing. The 18-49 rating was down 5 percent.
Overall TV viewing, including cable, was actually up 1 percent over last season when seven days of DVR playback is included with live viewing.
The worry for the networks is the impact on ratings if the strike goes well into the spring.
By Magna’s estimate, ratings will go into a deeper slide in March, dropping 8 percent from the prior year. The slide will then worsen, with ratings falling 12 percent in April and 15 percent in May with the end of the regular season.
Overall, Magna figures ratings for the second half, from January through May, will be down 9 percent from the prior year.
