When digital video recorders were first released, media people viewed them as the commercial-zapping enemy. But as DVRs proliferate and more studies come out, there’s growing evidence that DVRs aren’t so evil after all. Commercial skipping is rampant, yes, but DVR viewers also tend to be more engaged. And the devices seem to be drawing in the younger viewers who have been fleeing broadcast for years. Those are some suggestions of a new study conducted by Magna Global, the giant New York media agency. It pegs current DVR penetration at 23 percent and predicts that will soar to 37 percent by 2012, at which point a quarter of all broadcast primetime viewing by adults 18-49 will be time-shifted. The study examined fourth quarter 2007 and first quarter 2008 and concluded that the average impact of DVRs on broadcast ratings falls between 10 and 20 percent. Steve Sternberg, executive vice president of audience analysis at Magna Global, talks to Media Life about DVRs’ young skew, the most popular DVRed shows, and why DVRs have a much bigger impact than VCRs.

 
What did you find most interesting or most surprising about this study?
 
Two things, which I guess can go in either category.

First, that program type is far more indicative than rating size in determining the degree of DVR playback, and second, the dramatic age difference between the live and the time-shifted audience.

For example, while the average broadcast primetime series draws more adults 65-plus than adults 18-34 (20 percent to 17 percent), the DVR playback audience is roughly one-third adults 18-34 and just 5 percent adults 65 -plus. Even the oldest-skewing shows tend to have more younger than older viewers when time-shifted.

DVRs may actually be adding younger viewers to the mix that were not there before.

What's the most important thing media buyers and planners can take away from it?
 
While significantly more research needs to be done in this area, I would speculate that when people watch a program they recorded for later viewing, they are actually more attentive than when they watch the program at the time it initially aired – for a few reasons.

The time-shifted viewer is more likely to have selected the program. It's the very definition of appointment viewing. You recorded something and decided to sit down and watch it now.

And people may be less likely to be doing other activities at the same time when they are watching something they recorded.
 
With C3, if someone is reported as having been exposed to the average commercial minute during DVR playback, meaning they could have fast-forwarded and chose not to, it seems logical that they would be more attentive to the ad than if Nielsen reports exposure during a live broadcast.

During playback, there is no reason to wait for a commercial break to leave the room, you can do so anytime and just pause the action.

You note that DVRs, while in a relatively small swath of households, are having a bigger impact than VCRs when they were in 90 percent of households. Why is that?
 
Ease of use with considerably less viewer interaction required. You don’t need to program a separate device to record something, no tapes to load and tape over – the “season pass”-type capability has been a game-changer.
 

What types of shows are most likely to be time-shifted? Why?
 
Sci-fi and action series, and serialized dramas.

That's partly because they tend to get a somewhat younger audience, and partly because viewers of these shows are more likely to want to see multiple episodes at a time.

We no longer have to tune in at the same time, on the same channel next week to see how the story continues.

Why don't we see more correlation between a show's live ratings and its DVR playback rates?
 
Why would there be?

There might be more of a correlation between time-shifting and a show’s percent composition among young adults, since they tend to time shift more. 

You note that live programming (LP) ratings were equal to average commercial minutes plus three days (C3) "for now." Do you expect that to change, and why?
 
Right now, about 40 percent of household viewing to the broadcast networks in primetime is time-shifted. As DVR penetration increases, live viewing will decline further, while time-shifting increases.

This will result in primetime broadcast C3 ratings generally being higher than live program ratings for the shows that are heavily recorded.
 
The impact will be so great on these shows that it will boost the average C3 rating for each network higher than the average LP rating (even though many series will continue to have little DVR activity).

This will not be the case for cable. Even though many original cable series such as “Battlestar Galactica” and “Psych” are starting to be recorded to a larger degree, most cable series are still not.
 

What programs saw the biggest DVR bumps overall?
 
It varied a bit by age group, but if we look at total viewers, the average show had 10 percent of its audience due to DVR playback.

Shows that had at least twice that percentage were, in order, “Heroes,” “Lost,” “Big Brother,” “The Office,” “America’s Next Top Model,” “One Tree Hill,” “Reaper,” “Friday Night Lights,” “Jericho,” “Beauty & the Geek,” “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles,” “Lipstick Jungle,” “Survivor,” “Prison Break” and “Gossip Girl.”