Research
On broadcast, expect one breakout hit
By Louisa Ada Seltzer
Sep 8, 2009 - 8:28:20 AM

Cable had a strong summer, and the broadcast networks a not a very good one.

But with fall here and the new TV season about to begin, media planners and buyers are pretty high on the new shows rolling out, perhaps surprisingly so considering the ongoing decline in ratings.

They expect at least one breakout hit show this fall, and this after several years with very few to speak of.

They're also not all that down on the new "Jay Leno Show" airing on NBC weeknights, despite the belief of many that the show will do very poorly in the ratings.

Those are two of the outcomes of a survey Media Life posted over the long Labor Day weekend asking readers what they expected to be the big stories in media over the coming several months.

Asked whether there would be a breakout hit this fall, the largest share, 52 percent, agreed with this statement: "Yes, there is a promising group of shows this year, and I think, with people staying in to save money, we'll see at least one really catch."

Fewer than a third, 31 percent, said the very idea of a hit as such was passé, agreeing with this statement: "No, there's no such thing. Viewing is so fractured, between online and time-shifting options, that the term 'hit' is relative these days."

The smallest share, 17 percent, thought the new shows simply weren't hit material. They agreed with this statement: "No, but not because the broadcast model has changed. I just don't see any of these new shows catching."

Will Jay Leno soar or not? That question got a mix of answers. Clearly readers are divided on that show's prospects as a talk show running in primetime.

But the largest share of respondents, 45 percent, didn't think it would bomb. The agreed with this statement: "It will draw so-so ratings but it won't be a dog. They'll cancel it quietly in a few years and move back to the regular model, but the network is to be commended for trying something new."

And a surprisingly large share thought the show would do well, 26 percent. They agreed with this statement: "Soar. Remember, it doesn't have to get huge ratings to be cost-efficient for them. If it performs even decently, and if advertising continues to struggle, other networks are going to consider this model."

Fewer than a third, 29 percent, thought it would do very poorly, agreeing with this statement: "This was a colossally bad move on NBC's part. Its ratings will be terrible, after some initial curiosity, and I think it will be remembered as the move that really killed the network."

On another timely topic, Media Life asked readers which show would emerge as the king of late night.

The answer will not make Conan O'Brien very happy. CBS's "Late Show with David Letterman" was the first choice by far, at 69 percent. ABC's "Nightline" came in at 24 percent. NBC's "Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien" got just 7 percent of the vote.

Moving beyond television, Media Life asked readers whether BusinessWeek would find a buyer and survive in some form.

Most think not. More than 38 percent agreed with this statement: "Yes, it will find a buyer, but that buyer will either merge it with an existing title or scrap it for its assets. BusinessWeek as we know it will be gone."

And another 34 percent agreed with this statement: "No. If McGraw-Hill can't find a suitable deal, it will close the magazine, like so many other titles these days."

The smallest share, 27 percent, thought the magazine would survive intact, agreeing with this statement: "Yes. The publication has too much history and name value to not continue as a vibrant title. A buyer will come forth with deep enough pockets to carry it back to profitability."

Media Life also wanted to know what media planners and buyers thought regarding the whole debate on publications erecting pay walls and charging for access to their online content. Is this the next big thing? Will we see a wide-scale emergence of pay walls in the fall?

Not really.

Just 7 percent thought so, agreeing with this statement: "Yes. This is the model of the future. Papers that have already done so are seeing great results. See the increase in circulation at the Newport (R.I.) paper."

The largest share of respondents, 52 percent, agreed with this statement: "Yes, but it won't be wide-scale. We will see a lot of testing, similar to what the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is doing, where some content is walled off but much remains free to avoid alienating readers."

And the next-largest share, 25 percent, dismissed pay walls outright.

They agreed with this statement: "No, it's all talk. The real issue, which is being talked about a lot less, is that to charge for content you have to offer content people will pay for, and publishers are understandably reluctant to put their content to the test."

The remaining 16 percent saw pay walls coming down the road, if at all. They agreed with this statement: "No. I think right now this is all talk. Maybe a few years from now, if magazines and newspapers are still really dogging, this will become a reality."

In radio, there are lots of concerns about the future, but media planners and buyers don't find any of them all that gripping.

Asked to pick the big development in radio for the fall, the largest share, 41 percent, chose "There won't be any."

A fourth, 24 percent, thought the big story would be satellite radio going under. After that, at 16 percent, came: "More controversy over the PPM." Some 8 percent thought Don Imus would make the news saying something offensive.

The last question Media Life asked readers was how they thought the year would finish out for the media economy.

The answer, in brief: not good.

The largest share, 32 percent, thought 2009 would turn out to be a really bad year, agreeing with this statement "Based on the disastrous second quarter, bet that 2009 ad spending will finish well below 2008--and most forecasts."

The second-largest response, at 28 percent, was: "Who the devil knows?"

Yet there was a large number of respondents who do see things getting better. Just under 14 percent agreed with this statement: "The U.S. economy is on the mend and ad spending will follow, with spending ending flat to 2008," while another 22 percent agreed with this statement: "We will start to see a modest recovery in the fourth quarter."

Just 5 percent were optimistic as to how the year would turn out, agreeing with this statement: "Media folks are way over-spooked by the sour second quarter. Fourth quarter will see a surge in ad spending."