On the increasing
impact of DVR viewing
They're now in a third of all American homes
By Diego Vasquez
Aug 6, 2010
Years ago media people sat and worried about how DVRs would impact the television landscape, but these days there's not much question. It's had a huge impact, and it will grow even more over the next few years, with DVRs now in more than one-third of households. That's according to a new report by Horizon Media's Brad Adgate, who analyzed DVR ratings for shows airing on broadcast the past three seasons. He found, not surprisingly, that the number and percentage of time-shifted programs has grown, but also that shows' median age tends to decline when DVR viewing is factored in. "American Idol" was the most time-shifted program last season with 5.6 million total viewers, but NBC's "The Office" saw the biggest percentage bump, gaining 36.1 percent, or by 3.2 million viewers, 73 percent more than were time-shifting the show three years ago. Adgate, senior vice president of research at Horizon, talks to Media Life about what buyers and planners need to know about DVRs, why "Idol" is so likely to be time-shifted, and what milestone Fox will pass this season.
What did you think was most interesting or surprising about this study?
To me the most interesting factor was just how widespread DVR adoption has become. From what I’ve heard coming out of the TCA several network officials and studio heads are concerned about the impact DVR (and online) is having on TV ratings.
What's the most important thing media buyers and planners can take from it?
That DVRs are going to continue to impact TV viewing. Since November 2007 the household penetration of the DVR has almost doubled. More and more viewers are using the device and watching programs on-demand. This is not a VCR with 12 o’clock flashing all the time!
What shows see the biggest change in median age for their audience when timeshifting is added and why?
Many of the shows that see the biggest change in median age are "Grey’s Anatomy," "Survivor," "30 Rock" and "The Office." All see an age drop of about three years or even more, and those shows all air on Thursday night.
This is purely conjecture, but many young professionals go out on Thursday night with co-workers, so perhaps they are recording these programs and watching them later. For many shows, however, the decline in the median age is far more modest, generally in the range of one year.
What type of shows are most likely to see the biggest bump in time-shifted audience?
The programs that tend to see the biggest jump when DVRs are factored in tend to be higher-rated shows, or programs that are in a competitive time period. So in some instances the DVR allows viewers to watch shows that they would ordinarily miss, such as "The Office" or "30 Rock."
Did you see time shifting grow across the board compared to 2007, or was it a case of some shows that were already trending high growing even more?
Generally shows that were time shifted heavily in 2007-'08 are still heavily time shifted today although the rate has certainly increased as penetration has grown. Programs that have gained in popularity in recent years such as "The Big Bang Theory" and "NCIS" have seen a noticeable bump in time-shifted viewing. This could be another gauge of their growing popularity.
"Idol" had the largest audience bump from DVRs. Was that simply because of the sheer size of the "Idol" audience, which dwarfs nearly everything else? Or is "Idol" the exception to the general rule that people don't time-shift reality shows?
"American Idol" has had a strong time-shifted performance because of its popularity and also the program has a lot of, how do I say this, “dead air time.” In other words, if all you want to do is hear the singers and not watch the ads or the banter in between, the DVR is perfectly suited to meets those aims.
What do you think is more telling, the percentage of a show's audience that is time-shifted or the total number of viewers it gains from time-shifting? Or does it depend on the show?
I think percentage is more telling because it helps a network measure the popularity of a lower-rated show. Fox probably renewed "Dollhouse," a low-rated show in 2009-'10, in part because on a percentage basis it was one of the most time-shifted shows. Unfortunately for the program it wasn’t enough to keep it going.
Shows such as "30 Rock" and "The Office" have a high percentage of time shifting and are also two shows that have a high concentration of upper-income viewers. I think this is a direct correlation since the monthly [DVR]subscription rate is in line with a pay cable network subscription, another affluent indicator.
What type of shows do not get time-shifted much and why?
The programs that don’t get time shifted tend to be unscripted shows that are not a competition show. This would include "Cops" or "America’s Funniest Home Videos."
Live sports such as college and NFL football are not time shifted very much either. Also, the DVR is not used very often for ABC Saturday night movies or the other Saturday night repeat telecasts. In fact, Saturday appears to be the night when the DVR is not recording and perhaps is in playback.
Is there one Big Four network that tends to see more time-shifting than the others? If so, why?
All four major networks now have over 10 percent of their total audience time shifting. Of the four, Fox will probably be the first to surpass 20 percent in 2010-11. Besides "American Idol," "Fringe," "House," "Bones," "Lie to Me" and "Glee" are all heavily time shifted programs in the 25 percent or higher range. One reason for Fox being higher could be their younger median age relative to the three other major broadcasters.
How important is the DVR audience to the CW? How much of its audience does it make up?
During the upfronts the CW was the only network that spent a significant amount of time touting its on-demand capabilities, albeit online.
With a median age in the early 30s, its other video platforms are more important to them. In 2009-'10 DVR playback accounted for 24.4 percent of their total seven-day audience. Every one of their regularly scheduled and original series had over 20 percent of the total audience watching on a DVR. This even includes the quickly canceled "The Beautiful Life."
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