The broadcast networks are facing big challenges as they head into next week’s upfront presentations to media buyers, and the harsh economy is just part of it.
A worrisome issue is the prospect that primetime ratings could take a serious tumble next year, falling by as much as 10 percent in adults 18-49, by one prediction, nearly twice the average rate of decline in recent years.
Two factors would be driving that steep decline, and one is NBC's decision to drop scripted shows on weeknights at 10 p.m., replacing them with the new "Jay Leno Show." That's expected to lead to a significant drop in ratings through the week for NBC, and it will play out in lower ratings for broadcast overall.
But the second factor, less talked about, is the upcoming transition from analog to digital transmission.
The thinking is that a number of broadcast viewers who now don't subscribe to cable will switch to cable rather than go through the bother of either buying a new, digital-ready TV set or buying and hooking up the digital box they'll need to continue watching over-the-air TV on their old set.
The question is just how much broadcast will suffer from these two factors beyond the usual erosion of audiences--on average 6 percent per year--as viewers shift more and more of their viewing to cable and satellite.
The 10 percent figure comes from the Turner cable group and Jack Wakshlag, chief research officer at Turner.
Wakshlag is one of a number of media researchers who think "Leno" will pull considerably lower ratings for NBC, driving down broadcast ratings overall. Some viewers will shift to ABC and CBS but many others will flip over to cable networks.
Says Wakshlag: “I don’t think anyone at NBC is saying they’re doing this so their ratings are higher at 10 p.m.”
Some researchers think Wakshlag's 10 percent figure is too high, yet they concede both factors he cites stand to hurt ratings to some degree. The issue is how much.
“The loss of scripted programming on NBC will likely be somewhat offset by ABC and CBS, whoever comes out with the best programming,” says Shari Anne Brill, senior vice president and director of strategic audience analysis at Carat.
She is estimating that NBC’s Leno switch will pull down network TV’s overall rating in the 18-49 demographic by 1 percent to 1.5 percent, on top of the typical 6 percent.
She thinks that network ratings next year will fall somewhere between the normal 6 percent and Wakshlag’s 10 percent estimate, but probably closer to 6 percent.
Steve Sternberg, executive vice president of audience analysis at Magna, says it doesn’t make sense to predict ratings before the networks announce their fall schedules.
“It’s hard to predict without seeing the network schedule," he says. "There will certainly be a continued migration to cable, but not necessarily more than the past few years.”
As for the digital transition factor, Wakshlag says that of those broadcast-only viewers who have already made their decision whether to go digital or switch to cable, about 30 percent are switching to cable, and he reasons that share of these viewers will start watching more and more cable shows at the expense of broadcast.
He predicts that this will account for another 1 percent to 2 percent season-to-season decline in network TV’s ratings.
“In those homes, before they subscribed to cable, 100 percent of their time was watching broadcast TV,” he says. “Now they’ve become cable homes. Guess what happens? Two-thirds of their time is spent watching cable.”
