A seer's view: What
to look for in 2010
Here are the top 10 trends you should know about
By Diego Vasquez
Dec 22, 2009
If this year was defined by the recession, then next year may be defined by its aftershocks. In JWT's annual trend report listing 10 things to watch for in the coming year, three of them relate to the recession and people's efforts to move beyond it, making the economic downturn the biggest single influencer. One trend, searching for stability, speaks to people's desire for security after a tumultuous two years. Another trend, reading the fine print, reflects consumers' continued concern with getting the best deal possible for the least amount of money or hassle. One more, maximum disclosure, is no doubt a left over from the financial crisis, in which it became clear that a good business means a transparent business. Other trends identified by JWT, which has been producing the report for five years, include more eco-friendly packaging, retooling for an aging world, and living life in real time. Ann Mack, director of trendspotting at JWT, talks to Media Life about what the trends mean, why they're important, and how Pepsi set a good example.
How much are these trends influenced by the recession?
The economy continues to be a common thread in our fifth annual year-end forecast of trends for the near future. As we approach a new decade, you’ll find that many of the trends we cite are consequences of the Great Recession.
As we entered the second half of 2009, glimmers of good news started peeking through the headlines. Global economists proclaimed a transition from recession to recovery—earnings started to improve, stock markets seemed to stabilize, real estate markets saw modest rises, and GDP numbers grew. And while overall anxiety levels remain generally high across multiple markets, they are starting to abate in the countries we regularly track through our 7-year-old AnxietyIndex.
Still, people are generally skittish—cautiously optimistic at best—as a projected jobless recovery increasingly appears to be a reality. As a result, expect consumers to search for closer-to-home, more sustainable signs of stability (e.g., an unemployed family member or friend finding work) before they ease up on their recessionary ways.
How much harder have consumers been working to understand the fine print in this recession? How has that changed from past years, and how will it increase next year?
The recession has created a broad class of consumers who are willing to put real time and energy into their purchases. In the next year, watch for this reading of the fine print, if you will, to extend beyond securing the best values to learning more about nutrition, environmental impact and ethical business practices.
What’s driving this trend are a few factors: First, today’s consumers have grown more skeptical and distrustful in an era when big institutions from Wall Street to China’s dairy producers have failed them; they’re growing more apt to question claims, scrutinize labels, conduct online research or consult friends.
Second, ailing service industries like banks and airlines are imposing a complex raft of fees and conditions on customers; failure to pay close attention can be costly.
Third, advocacy groups are urging consumers to avoid an array of offending products or ingredients.
And fourth, consumers are overloaded with more products and more information than ever, from calorie counts to carbon emissions to everything in between.
How will we retool for an aging world?
As the world’s population grows older than it’s ever been, watch for a proliferation of products and services that cater to this demographic as they strive to live independently for as long as they can.
The demand for more senior-friendly products and services will only continue to grow, forcing businesses—traditionally so obsessed with youth—to retool in a bid for a bigger share of this burgeoning market. Makers of everything from homes to cars to consumer goods, along with retailers and service providers, will increasingly focus on innovative solutions for older consumers, in the process benefiting the general population as well.
One area of opportunity, for instance, is helping seniors “age in place:” to remain in their homes and communities, taking care of their own daily needs. With older cohorts increasingly living on their own, many by choice, they need an array of products and services to help them lead independent lives.
Industrial designers are coming up with some relatively simple tweaks: Thermador has designed a glass cooktop that automatically shuts off when cooking is completed; Whirlpool offers pedestals for its washers and dryers that reduce the need to bend over and chimes to indicate washing temperatures for people with limited eyesight.
What is trickle-up innovation and where will we see it?
Products designed for emerging markets are increasingly filtering into the developed world, where consumers are welcoming them as cheaper and simpler alternatives to existing choices. That’s what we mean by trickle-up innovation.
The four billion “bottom of the pyramid” consumers of developing nations are driving the development of products that fit their unique needs; at the same time, newly thrifty consumers in mature markets are embracing “good enough” products. As a result, innovative products from emerging markets will find global success.
Take the $2,500 Nano car from India’s Tata Motors, for instance. Designed as an ultra-affordable transportation option for India’s masses, the Nano is expected to trickle up to Europe by 2011.
How will visual fluency play an increasing role in our lives?
When it comes to complex issues, from the global economy to the health care crisis, people in today’s scarce-attention economy prefer a graphic synthesis of information to an avalanche of reading material. Increasingly, information that was formerly relegated to the written or spoken word, at best accompanied by a talking head, B-roll or generic imagery, will need to be presented in a more easily digested graphic form.
Communicators across all sectors will need to find innovative visual ways to convey information. As a result of this trend, the roles and functions of people who work in communications—designers, writers, journalists, researchers, analysts, etc.—will continue to overlap and hybridize. At the same time, with the development of easier-to-user tools and more data becoming public, amateurs will create their own visual contributions.
Why will we see an increased focus on life in real time? Can you give an example?
Thanks to the steady rise of social media—especially Facebook and Twitter—and the web 2.0 culture of sharing, collaboration and conversation, what’s being called the Now Web or the real-time web is only going to become more dominant.
Characterized by constantly updating streams of information, conversation, memes and images, it’s very different from the static pages that once defined the web. The stream of information that people consume, produce and share online is flowing ever faster.
Before the Now Web, for example, it’s unlikely the Susan Boyle video would have racked up millions of YouTube views in a matter of days; Boyle’s moment became part of the mass Now.
The proliferation of smartphones is also driving the trend, enabling real-time connectivity and instant text, photo and video updates. Location-based or location-aware mobile mapping services are helping people connect with friends on the go and interact with brands in real time.
What can media buyers and planners learn from these trends to help them in their jobs?
There’s a takeaway for each trend, but I’ll speak specifically to our “life in real time” trend here. Brands now need a new set of quick-response skills.
Consumers expect near-immediate brand response and an ongoing stream of dialogue with brands (what’s sometimes called social CRM). So brands must make customer service more real-time and inject themselves into real-time conversations.
Pepsi, for example, reacted quickly after Michael Jackson’s death, sending out a “Thank you, Michael” Tweet to acknowledge the King of Pop’s 1980s commercials for the brand.
In the world on the real-time web, it’s becoming increasingly more crucial for companies to truly listen to their customers, to turn on a dime without bureaucratic delays, and to flatten hierarchies to make this possible.
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