For 19 straight months, radio has seen year-to-year revenue declines, and the outlook is not much brighter for 2009. Forecasters are calling for advertising spending to fall 6 to 16 percent from 2008, when the medium had already slipped 9 percent through third quarter. That has prompted radio stations to push greater integration with the internet, which remains one of radio’s few growth areas. Meanwhile, 2008 also brought turmoil in radio measurement, with the rollout of Arbitron’s portable people meter across a dozen new markets despite challenges by the New York and New Jersey attorneys general. Nielsen, sensing an opportunity, said it, too, would enter the radio ratings business, with a pilot program set to launch later this year. Finally, while XM and Sirius satellite radio services completed their merger, doubts about the subscription medium continued to grow as it became clear the country had entered a recession. Michael Harrison, publisher of Talkers magazine, talks to Media Life about the coming year in radio. This is the third in a series of 2009 previews with experts in different fields of media.
 
What was the biggest story in radio in 2008?
 
The biggest story on radio was the election. The election was huge on radio, in terms of talk radio. This election was a treasure chest of content.

The second biggest story was the economy, and of course the economy is now the story for talk radio. It’s very important.

As for music radio, I don’t know if it even exists anymore [laughs]. 

 But behind the scenes the problems facing all media based on advertising is very compelling. 

What is the single most important thing for media buyers and planners to know about radio right now?
 
In general, radio remains a frontline ubiquitous medium. It’s in people’s lives and it’s a wonderful tool for targeting specific demographics. It’s a great way to get to a specific niche of customers.
 
Talk radio is one of the best ways in all of media to reach affluent, active, educated adults.

And there are a lot of bargains out there right now.
 

How will the recession affect radio?
 
I see it affecting radio the same way it’s affecting newspapers, magazines and TV. It’s hurting operating budgets, and advertising is significantly down. And no one is sure when it’s going to get better. It’s causing cutbacks in personnel and it’s somewhat demoralizing.
 

What are three trends to watch for in 2009 in radio?
 
I think you’re going to see, on general radio, music programming becoming more creative, because I think it has too.
 
I think that talk radio is going to continue to play a major role in being the town meeting on politics, but we should see less partisanship and more populism.
 
The combination of the election of Barack Obama and the mutually shared pain of the recession is breaking down the old left-versus-right talking points that have dominated talk radio for the past several years.
 

What will be the single biggest change in the industry over the next few years?
 
I think you’re going to continue to see radio integrate with the internet. I think that radio is a leader in that, in that it’s sending a tremendous amount of listeners to the internet, and in turn it’s using it to cross-promote its broadcast product. So there will be a continued integration and we will see, because of the economy, that process stepped up.
 
The emergence of the media station, many of them heirs to radio stations, will be on the internet. Because it’s more than just radio, we’re calling them media stations.

The one good thing about the recession is that it’s forcing radio to deal with the internet in a more urgent way.
 

How is new technology influencing radio?
 
The new technology was one of the major influences of radio dealing with the internet before the recession, and now it’s being sped up. The new technology is not providing talk radio with as much competition as it is enhancement. That enhancement is applied on the internet.
 
The idea that radio stations can now offer multiple channels and more in-depth coverage, and also unlimited advertising inventory via the internet, is an incredibly liberating aspect to this new era.

Radio’s no longer limited to its local region, its power on the dial limited to only one channel. The idea of each station having its own media station component is even superseding HD [high-definition] radio, which at one time everyone thought was the answer.
 
We’re also seeing a continued devaluation of the broadcast license. So I think in 2009 we’re going to see the continuation of the era of deconsolidation, and the bright spot is there will hopefully be fresh money and a new enthusiasm about radio and radio programming on the part of new owners.
 

How big an effect will the portable people meter have on radio buying this year?
 
Everybody knows it’s a good idea that’s not fully worked out yet. It is a good idea to be able to record listening as it is, as opposed to a random group of people remembering what they listened to.
 
The problem with PPM is it is so dependent on proper placement and a large sample. So until Arbitron is able to satisfy those obstacles, there will be criticism, questions and a lack of complete confidence in PPMs.
 
Ratings are in a transitional period. I have my own doubts of whether radio, an unwired medium, can be accurately rated in this day and age.
 

What impact will Nielsen's system have, even though it won't be directly competing in the markets?
 
Well, competition is good in that it will cause both systems to be sharper and more accurate. However, Arbitron is really good at this, and Nielsen I think will have a tough time playing catch-up, especially in this economy.
 

Will Sirius/XM finally emerge as a viable challenger, or is it still struggling from the merger and the economy?
 
I think Sirius/XM will sink like the setting sun. And it has nothing to do with their programming, it’s about the platform.
 
First of all, the idea of having to provide this type of programming to a special appliance, a special radio, is not convenient or economically efficient. It can be done on the internet and people know it, it’s just a matter of when the internet is all over place, including in cars, which is happening rapidly.
 
Their major strength was the car, and the car is not strong right now. So their problems have only been multiplied and intensified.
 

Howard Stern recently hinted that he may retire soon. How would that impact satellite, if at all?
 
Sure, Howard Stern is still an attraction, and if he leaves that’s one less attraction. He won’t be the main catalyst to anything for satellite, but it’s another significant element, so it doesn’t bode well.
 

Are there any growth areas for radio revenue this year? Which ones and why?
 
In all down economies, there are some businesses that do well, and I think that radio is going to have to figure out where they are and gear marketing strategies to serve these industries.
 
Radio is resilient and if it can put its best foot forward and create packages that help companies reach targets, there will be deals out there because advertising must continue. I think that radio will be okay if it remembers what it is and it continues moving forward and serving its needs, not just for listeners but also for advertisers.
 
Times are tough, but there’s actually more need for advertising than ever before, and if radio can meet that need, it will be relatively successful.