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Radio would also
suffer in an NFL lockout


Football games typically dominate the airwaves

Mar 14, 2011
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If NFL owners and players do not reach an agreement, causing cancellation of some or all of the 2011-'12 season, television would take the big hit, but radio would also suffer.

While folks may think of football as a TV sport, games are also heard over the radio, and they draw huge audiences, with the games dominating the times they air in those markets

Stations in cities like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and many others can average a 40 share or more among men ages 25-54 during games.

“Just like TV sees huge numbers, the same applies to radio. No other programming moves the needle like the NFL does,” says Arbitron’s Chris Meinhardt.

Because of the NFL blackout rule for TV, which requires games to be sold out in advance for them to be broadcast on TV, some struggling teams score even bigger ratings on radio. “If the game's not on television the numbers tend to be much higher than expected,” says Meinhardt.

Of course, big numbers mean big revenue. 

Bob Snyder, president of Snyder Sports Audio, who consults teams and stations on broadcast rights, estimates the average revenue football generates for a team’s flagship station at somewhere between $4 million and $5 million dollars annually.

Losing those dollars would certainly impact top-line revenue, but Snyder says that doesn’t necessarily mean a squeeze to the bottom line. That depends on the station’s deal with the team and how well the team is doing.

“Some broadcasters have struggled over the last few years, barely breaking even or losing money on the relationship,” he says. “In that case the loss of football would actually be a cost savings.”

By his calculations 15 of the 32 NFL teams receive fees from their radio broadcast partners in return for the rights to air the game and sell ad inventory. These are the stations whose bottom line may or may not be hurt depending on the amount they pay the team compared to the revenue they generate.

Regardless, these stations are better off than the TV networks who may have to pay the league even if the season is cancelled. “Historically, local radio broadcast rights include clauses where by the broadcaster has no liability if there are no games,” says Snyder.

Another 11 teams retain most, or all, of in-game inventory. In these cases the flagship station would lose only the fees they charge the team for airtime and the ratings bump the games deliver.

The remaining six teams split sales duties and revenues with the station, so the lost revenue will definitely impact the bottom line.

Regardless of how the rights deal is structured, the people who stand to lose the most are on the front line; the station’s sales staff. Football advertising can equate to $750,000 or more in sales commissions for an average-sized staff. “With 10 sellers that can be a loss of $75,000 or so, which can really affect a family, “says Snyder.

The 32 flagship stations are not the only ones who stand to lose. Each team has a network of regional affiliates, around 30 stations on average, that carry the games. That’s nearly 1,000 additional stations that would be hurt by a lockout.

While the structure of these deals can vary widely, almost all affiliates retain some amount of in-game inventory to sell locally. The opportunity to be the local outlet for such a big brand can represent a significant revenue opportunity for smaller-market stations.

Then there are the league’s national syndication deals. Westwood One, the league's primary national radio partner, recently negotiated a new deal estimated to cost the syndicator between $15 million to $20 million annually.

Like the local stations, if there are no games, Westwood One is not on the hook for any money. That would make the loss of a season easier to weather, but it would still represent a loss of revenue.

The final piece of the puzzle involves where those advertising dollars will end up.

The question for which there is no clear answer is where radio ad dollars that traditionally go to football would go in the event the season is canceled. 


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Mike Stern is a Chicago writer.




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