Dear Rachel,
I know this is a very general sort of question, but when do you expect to see media people getting raises again? We’ve been frozen here at our agency for some time, and I gather from Media Life stories on the job market that’s pretty much the story everywhere. I'm a planner. Any insights? -- Looking for More.

Dear Looking,
Since your question is very general, I will give you a general answer: sometime this year, most likely.

Everything depends on the pace of the ad recovery, which is now underway by all accounts. The general consensus among media economists has been that it’s going to be a slow recovery, but in fact the ad economy has been picking up quicker than many thought, which has led some forecasters to revise their outlooks for the better.

That in itself is encouraging.

As ad spending picks up, media departments, after being leaned out for so long, will begin staffing up again, and that will create demand for talent, which will drive up starting salaries for new hires.

In time that will begin to affect salaries for existing employees. Management will know that unless it loosens the purse strings and begins handing out raises again, they’re at risk of people leaving for new, higher-paying media positions at other agencies.

I believe we’ll begin to see that happening at some point this year. Just when will vary by agency and by market and also by skill.

A few weeks back, I responded to a question similar to yours: When will the job market open up again for media planners and buyers?

As I wrote then, the rosiest prospects are for planners with digital backgrounds. That’s where the most immediate demand is. Planners without digital experience are going to have to wait longer.

And as for media buyers, well, the wait’s going to be a lot longer, according to recruiters I’ve talked to. Because of consolidation and other factors, there are simply fewer buyer jobs out there, and recruiters don’t expect that to change for many months.

So you can draw from this that raises will go first to planners with digital experience, then to planners without digital. Buyers will have to wait much longer.

But of course, I'm speaking very generally here. If I were you, I'd begin sniffing about to see how your agency is doing in terms of recruiting new clients and getting existing clients to increase their business. That should give you a good sense of when you and your co-workers will starting seeing fatter pay envelopes.