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Here are a couple of very simple questions. One, what are people most afraid of? Two, what is the most depressing time of the year?
Creepy crawlies is the answer to No. 1 and January, after the holidays, is the answer to No. 2. We know this because this is what Americans tell survey-takers.
But that's not really so.
The trouble with traditional surveys is that they are based on what people say, not how they actually behave, or what they really believe, and that's often quite different.
Fact: When it comes to fears, fearing of flying is at the top, but well up on the list are a host of social fears, such as a fear of intimacy.
Fact: Thanksgiving time is the most depressing time of the year, not January.
These truths come from the trails people leave after them as they search the internet, and they represent thousands upon thousands of searches.
“People are honest with their computers. They have no fear of being judged,” says Bill Tancer, general manager of global research at Hitwise, an internet tracking company, and author of the book “Click: What Millions of People are Doing Online and Why It Matters,” which came out last week.
Tancer reports that around Thanksgiving time there's a spike in searches for drugs to treat depression, more so than in January, though that's a time when failed New Year’s resolutions collide with mounting credit card debt.
Why Thanksgiving time?
The data is mute on this, of course, but presumably it stems from anxieties over the holidays. Writes Tancer: "A significant number of us turned to our search engines the week of Thanksgiving in hopes of understanding our holiday blues."
That ties into the issue of what people fear most, and as we note, it's not bugs, even if that's what people tell survey-takers.
To find the answer, Tancer and his fellow Hitwise researchers tracked the search term "Fear of," and among the top results were four social phobias: fear of intimacy, fear of rejection, fear of people and fear of success.
The result led Tancer to believe that we may be underestimating the number of people suffering from social phobias. It certainly goes some distance in explaining why self-help books top best-seller lists.
Here's another question: When do high school girls begin shopping for prom dresses?
You might think April or May, but Tancer's group found it's really in January. That's when searches peaked. Why? The likely reason is that's when their favorite magazines tip them to what's going to be the cool look come May.
Tancer, a life-long data geek, has spent his recent years analyzing the internet activities of 10 million people for Hitwise. About three quarters of this is anonymous, aggregated data from ISPs. The rest comes from folks that have agreed to be monitored and have supplied demographic data.
But as with all research, there's an art to it that goes beyond the sheer numbers. It's about searching the right terms in the right way. For instance, with depression, one might pull up a string of results about the Great Depression of the 1930s, or about holes in the ground.
But Tancer believes the real value of this form of research is in spotting coming trends across a range of activities. He's used his data to figure out who the early adopters are for certain sectors, including new media technology.
While not everything the early adopters rush to becomes the next big thing, looking at where they are going can be an indicator. The next thing to watch for is if the early mainstream sectors start to hit these sites.
Ultimately, Tancer believes that using internet data will be able to help marketers learn about where their products are in their lifecycle and how their brands are perceived.
Writes Tancer: "Simply stated, if you want to understand the new connected world and how we choose to live in it, look no further than our Internet behaviour; after all, we are what we click.”
***
Meanwhile, elsewhere in popcult, the new release “Bangkok Dangerous” finished No. 1 at the box office over the weekend, bringing in $7.8 million and becoming the lowest-grossing No. 1 movie in five years. That pushed “Tropic Thunder” to No. 2 with $7.5 million in ticket sales.
In DVD rentals for the week ended Aug. 31, according to IMDb.com, the comedy “What Happens in Vegas” debuted at No. 1, with last week’s No. 1, “Street Kings,” falling a spot to No. 2.
On iTunes this morning, Pink’s “So What” was No. 1, while “Whatever You Like” by T.I. fell from No. 1 to No. 3.
And in books, Stephanie Meyer’s “Twilight,” “Breaking Dawn,” “New Moon” and “Eclipse” made up four of the top five titles on USA Today’s book chart for the week ended Aug. 31, while another of her titles, “The Host,” remained at No. 5 on The New York Times’ hardcover fiction best-sellers list for the week ended Aug. 30.
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TOP MOVIES
Weekend Box Office Estimates
Weekend of Sept. 5-7, 2008
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Rank
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MOVIE
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Engagements
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Box office (millions)
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|
1
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Bangkok
Dangerous (Lionsgate)
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2,650
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$7.80
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2
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Tropic Thunder (DreamWorks)
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3,446
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$7.50
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3
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The House Bunny (Sony)
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2,736
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$5.90
|
|
4
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The Dark Knight (Warner Bros.)
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2,575
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$5.72
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5
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Traitor (Overture)
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2,108
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$4.66
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6
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Babylon
A.D. (Fox)
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3,425
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$4.00
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|
7
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Death Race (Universal)
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2,586
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$3.60
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8
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Disaster Movie (Lionsgate)
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2,642
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$3.30
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|
9
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Mamma Mia! (Universal)
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1,904
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$2.71
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10
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Pineapple Express (Sony)
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1,802
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$2.40
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Source: Yahoo Movies
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IMDb TOP DVD RENTALS
Week ending August 31, 2008
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Rank
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TITLE
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Last week
|
|
1
|
What Happens in Vegas
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-
|
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2
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Street Kings
|
1
|
|
3
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Prom Night
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2
|
|
4
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Smart People
|
4
|
|
5
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The Scorpion King 2: Rise of a Warrior
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5
|
|
6
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21
|
3
|
|
7
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Redbelt
|
-
|
|
8
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Nim’s
Island
|
6
|
|
9
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Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day
|
7
|
|
10
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Harold & Kumar Escape from
Guantanamo
Bay
|
8
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Source: IMDB
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ITUNES TOP 8 SONG DOWNLOADS
for week ended Monday, Sept. 8, 2008
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|
Rank
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TITLE
|
|
1
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So What, Pink
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|
2
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I’m Yours, Jason Mraz
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|
3
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Whatever You Like, T.I.
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4
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Just Stand Up!, Various
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|
5
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Disturbia, Rihanna
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|
6
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Paper Planes, M.I.A.
|
|
7
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In the Ayer, Flo Rida
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8
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Hot N Cold, Katy Perry
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|
Source: iTunes
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NEW YORK
TIMES BESTSELLING BOOKS
Week ending August 30, 2008
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|
Fiction (hardback)
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|
Rank
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TITLE
|
Last week
|
Weeks on chart
|
|
1
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Devil Bones by Kathy Reichs
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-
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1
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2
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The Gypsy Morph by Terry Brooks
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-
|
1
|
|
3
|
The
Guernsey Literacy and Potato Peel Pie Society by Mary Ann Shaffer and Annie Barrows
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3
|
5
|
|
4
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Silks by Dick Francis and Felix Francis
|
-
|
1
|
|
5
|
The Host by Stephanie Meyer
|
5
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17
|
|
Nonfiction (hardback)
|
|
1
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Stori Telling by Tori Spelling with Hilary Liftin
|
2
|
14
|
|
2
|
The Obama Nation by Jerome R. Corsi
|
1
|
5
|
|
3
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Are You There Vodka? It’s Me, Chelsea by Chelsea Handler
|
3
|
19
|
|
4
|
When You Are Engulfed in Flames by David Sedaris
|
5
|
13
|
|
5
|
The Case Against Barack Obama by David Freddoso
|
6
|
4
|
|
Fiction (paperback)
|
|
1
|
The Shack by William P. Young
|
1
|
15
|
|
2
|
The Choice by Nicholas Sparks
|
3
|
2
|
|
3
|
Barefoot by Elin Hilderbrand
|
4
|
12
|
|
4
|
Water For Elephants by Sara Druen
|
-
|
52
|
|
5
|
The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
|
-
|
51
|
|
Nonfiction (paperback)
|
|
1
|
Three Cups of Tea by Greg Mortenson and David Oliver Relin
|
1
|
83
|
|
2
|
Eat, Pray, Love by Elizabeth Gilbert
|
3
|
84
|
|
3
|
Mike’s Election Guide by Michael Moore
|
-
|
1
|
|
4
|
The Audacity of Hope by Barack Obama
|
-
|
36
|
|
5
|
A Long Way Gone by Ishmael Beah
|
-
|
4
|
|
Source: New York Times
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USA
TODAY BESTSELLING BOOKS
Week ending August 31, 2008
|
|
Rank
|
TITLE
|
Last week
|
|
1
|
Twilight by Stephanie Meyer
|
2
|
|
2
|
Breaking Dawn by Stephanie Meyer
|
1
|
|
3
|
New Moon by Stephanie Meyer
|
3
|
|
4
|
The Shack by William P. Young
|
5
|
|
5
|
Eclipse by Stephanie Meyer
|
4
|
|
6
|
8 Sandpiper Way
by Debbie Macomber
|
-
|
|
7
|
The Last Lecture by Randy Pausch and Jeffrey Zazlow
|
6
|
|
8
|
Nights in Rodanthe by Nicholas Sparks
|
8
|
|
9
|
The Edge of Desire: A Bastion Club Novel by Stephanie Laurens
|
-
|
|
10
|
The Choice by Nicholas Sparks
|
10
|
|
Source:
USA Today
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