Analyst: Broadcast upfront could fall up to 14 percent
In a poll last week Media Life readers predicted a weak upfront for broadcast this year. One of Wall Street’s most respected analysts agrees with them. Merrill Lynch’s Jessica Reif Cohen issued her upfront forecast this week, and she’s calling for a 2 to 14 percent decline for broadcast compared with last year’s $9.3 billion haul. Best-case scenario, the broadcast networks will secure $8.79 billion in the upfront market, where primetime ad time is negotiated following next week’s fall schedule presentations. In Reif Cohen’s worst-case scenario, the networks will pull in $7.73 billion. Fox, the only network to see ratings increase this year among adults 18-49, also will be the only network to see its upfront take rise year to year, up 2 percent. Reif Cohen predicts CBS, ABC and NBC will all fall slightly, while the CW will be down 15 percent. She’s more optimistic for cable, saying it could rise up to 3 percent over last year. The report cites “ratings declines, the disruption in the development cycle due to the recent writers’ strike and economic woes” as reasons for the broadcast upfront decreases.
En ‘Fuego’: Record debut for new Univision telenovela
Univision’s latest telenovela has started en fuego, which is Spanish for on fire. “Fuego en la Sangre” (“Burning for Revenge”) averaged 5.1 million total viewers and 3.0 million viewers 18-49 last week, its first week on the air, making it the highest-rated premiere week for a novela in the network’s history. The 9 p.m. series also averaged 1.9 million viewers 18-34, making Univision the No. 3 broadcast network last week in the timeslot. In that demo “Fuego” average more viewers than original episodes of the likes of ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars Results” and “Ugly Betty,” CBS’s “CSI: NY” and “NCIS” and NBC’s “30 Rock” and “My Name is Earl.” In fact, the first five episodes of “Fuego” all ranked in the top 20 programs of the week among 18-34s among all networks.
Stunner: Study finds Jon Stewart lacks as newsman
When is the news not the news? When it's being delivered by comedian Jon Stewart. But if Stewart isn't really a newsman, why is he held in such high regard next to such legit newsmen as CNN's Anderson Cooper and NBC anchorman Brian Williams? The Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism decided to find out. It undertook to study a year's worth of Stewart's "The Daily Show,” comparing it with the news reporting on traditional top TV newscasts. It looked at 2007 newscasts. The results were not all that surprising. And the findings would suggest Stewart is so popular because he is funny and has an easy time making it up as he goes along. It concluded that the Comedy Central show more closely resembled talk radio than network news, in no small part because of its focus on politics, primarily Washington politics, at the expense of a lot of other areas of coverage of the sort provided by the networks. It also notes that Republicans and specifically the Bush White House received harsher criticism and coverage than liberals. And unlike real news shows, the study found that Stewart's is inclined to blend fantasy with facts.
With two weeks to go, Fox zooms to big sweeps lead
With two weeks to go in the May sweeps, it’s a safe bet that every Big Five network will see declines versus the 2007 period. It’s also a safe bet that Fox will come out ahead. Through Wednesday night, the latest numbers available, the network, which has won the past three May sweeps periods, has staked out a large lead. It’s averaging a 3.5 adults 18-49 rating and 10 share, with No. 2 ABC at a 2.9/8. CBS is third at 2.6/7, NBC fourth at 2.0/6, and the CW fifth at 1.0/3. Every network is down from last year, though Fox has slipped the least, 17 percent. The declines can be attributed to everything from series lows for a number of top programs to increased digital video recorder usage to weakened schedules, the result of certain programs delaying their return from the writers’ strike until fall. The sweeps period ends May 21.
Clarification: 'We're not cutting 650 jobs in Tampa'
On Wednesday, Media Life ran a story headlined "New paradigm: Bloodletting in Tampa," in which it reported that the Tampa Tribune's parent company, Media General, intended to slash the ranks of its Tampa operations in half, cutting some 650 jobs. John Schueler, president of the Florida Communications Group, who oversees Tampa operations, says that is not the case. Rather, the company has tendered buyout offers to half its Tampa employees, some number of whom will leave the company. Schueler expects it will be fewer than 650, but he declined to say just how many jobs the company expects to eliminate. He says that figure will not be known until the company gets further into a restructuring of operations. He also says that if enough people don't accept voluntary buyouts, the company will then eliminate some positions.
