Cheery outlook
for world ad spending
A new forecast has it rising by nearly 7 percent
By Heidi Dawley
Jan 29, 2008
With the world's financial markets in a roil, and with more trouble expected to come, it might follow that, as many worry, the media economy will take a thrashing in the process.
But at least for now forecasters are continuing to see a robust 2008 for media around the globe.
The latest rosy forecast comes from GroupM, the giant media buyer, which is calling for global ad spending to increase by 6.8 percent this year, to $479 billion (see chart, below).
The forces driving that growth would seem strong enough to weather the shock waves from the shakeout in the financial markets, or that's the hope.
One force is the exploding growth of media in the developing markets, another the quadrennial effect brought by the presidential elections, Olympics and European football championships.
Yet another, and one that wasn't around the last time developed economies got the wobbles, is the internet.
“At a global level we are probably beating economic growth by a point or so, but we are relying on the developing world to kind of double its own weight to sustain that growth. And in the developed world we are really relying on the internet,” says Adam Smith, GroupM Futures Director.
“Both of these properties can claim some immunity from a retreat of the U.S. consumer,” he says, referring to fears that Americans, alarmed by the global financial turmoil, will begin to cut back dramatically on spending and thus bring on a full recession.
Smith is forecasting that internet and TV will be the primary engines of global ad growth, representing the vast majority of new media spending this year, and TV will get the larger share, about half, with much of that in the developing nations.
The internet will account for 28 percent, and it will be the leading engine of growth in the developed world, particularly in Western Europe, believes Smith.
In all, Smith expects the internet to account for about 10 percent of ad spending worldwide in 2008 and that it will grow by 22 percent this year over last.
Internet growth will slow in the U.S., to a pace of just 11.6 percent, and down from 14 percent in 2007, signifying a maturing market.
For Western Europe, he forecasts growth of 31.2 percent in 2008, slightly down from the 36.8 percent he expects that the region to hit in 2007, the decline also the result of maturing.
The puzzler in all this is just what impact a major slowdown might have on the internet. It's hard to say in part because it would be the first time the web was a significant enough media player to see the effects.
But Smith senses the internet would fare decently, and for the same reasons advertisers have been attracted to it in good times: the ease with which one can measure return on investment. More measurable mediums, like direct mail, tend to be more resilient during hard times.
But that's by no means certain. Jonathan Barnard, head of publications at ZenithOptimedia, thinks it could also happen that advertisers abandon the internet as too experimental and return to traditional media.
Barnard says it could go either way, and at this point no one knows.
There would appear to be less worry about oft-mentioned quadrennial effect, at least for media economies of the developed countries. If the past can be counted on, spending on the U.S. presidential election and the Olympics stand to be strong even if the economy isn’t.
To some degree, growth in the developing countries would also seem insulated. Smith says that in the past slowdowns have typically been the result of local problems, not global downturns.
Developing countries comprise about 25 percent of the global ad economy and are expected to furnish about 50 percent of new ad dollars this year.
Meanwhile, in online ratings for the week ended Jan. 20, according to Nielsen Online, Google claimed the top spot among parent companies, followed by Microsoft, Yahoo, Time Warner and News Corp. Online. The top five brands were Google, Yahoo, MSN/Windows Live, Microsoft and AOL Media Network.
NexTag was the No. 1 advertiser with 6.95 million impressions, followed by No. 2 Experian Group Limited at 6.39 million. With 32.78 million ads served, Yahoo was again the top advertising site, well ahead of No. 2 AOL.com at 1.66 million.
Sessions per person per week were even to the previous week at 17, and domains visited per person were up one to 41. PC time per person inched up 1.4 percent compared with the previous week, to 18 hours and 37 minutes.
|
Top 25 parent companies
Through Jan. 20 |
|
#
|
Parent
|
Unique Audience (000)
|
Reach %
|
Time Spent per Person (hh:mm:ss)
|
|
1
|
Google
|
87,669
|
63.9
|
0:34:39
|
|
2
|
Microsoft
|
84,486
|
61.5
|
0:46:13
|
|
3
|
Yahoo!
|
76,993
|
56.1
|
3:06:39
|
|
4
|
Time Warner
|
67,532
|
49.2
|
1:28:48
|
|
5
|
News Corp. Online
|
43,409
|
31.6
|
0:48:02
|
|
6
|
eBay
|
33,518
|
24.4
|
0:56:30
|
|
7
|
InterActiveCorp
|
30,275
|
22.1
|
0:12:41
|
|
8
|
Amazon
|
27,621
|
20.1
|
0:12:33
|
|
9
|
Apple Computer
|
24,823
|
18.1
|
0:31:24
|
|
10
|
Wikimedia Foundation
|
23,036
|
16.8
|
0:10:41
|
|
11
|
Walt Disney Internet Group
|
21,927
|
16.0
|
0:19:51
|
|
12
|
Landmark Communications
|
21,828
|
15.9
|
0:10:16
|
|
13
|
New York Times Company
|
21,562
|
15.7
|
0:11:26
|
|
14
|
AT&T Inc.
|
17,549
|
12.8
|
0:20:17
|
|
15
|
RealNetworks, Inc.
|
17,176
|
12.5
|
0:23:21
|
|
16
|
E.W. Scripps Company
|
14,341
|
10.4
|
0:08:45
|
|
17
|
Bank of America
|
13,592
|
9.9
|
0:22:43
|
|
18
|
Comcast Corp.
|
12,313
|
9.0
|
0:30:49
|
|
19
|
CNET Networks
|
12,278
|
8.9
|
0:06:15
|
|
20
|
Verizon Communications
|
11,775
|
8.6
|
0:18:46
|
|
21
|
United Online
|
11,575
|
8.4
|
0:35:05
|
|
22
|
Viacom Digital
|
11,508
|
8.4
|
0:27:03
|
|
23
|
Gannett
|
10,900
|
7.9
|
0:11:20
|
|
24
|
Facebook
|
10,505
|
7.7
|
0:27:58
|
|
25
|
CraigsList
|
10,015
|
7.3
|
0:35:44
|
|
Source: Nielsen Online
|
|
Top 25 brands
Through Jan. 20 |
|
|
Parent
|
Unique Audience (000)
|
Reach %
|
Time spent per person (hh:mm:ss)
|
|
1 |
Google
|
81,537
|
59.4
|
0:26:23
|
|
2 |
Yahoo!
|
75,731
|
55.2
|
3:09:18
|
|
3 |
MSN/Windows Live
|
60,635
|
44.2
|
0:46:23
|
|
4 |
Microsoft
|
56,275
|
41.0
|
0:18:55
|
|
5 |
AOL Media Network
|
53,974
|
39.3
|
1:40:22
|
|
6 |
Fox Interactive Media
|
37,033
|
27.0
|
0:51:20
|
|
7 |
YouTube
|
30,345
|
22.1
|
0:23:57
|
|
8 |
eBay
|
28,145
|
20.5
|
1:00:32
|
|
9 |
Apple
|
24,823
|
18.1
|
0:31:24
|
|
10 |
Wikipedia
|
22,648
|
16.5
|
0:10:43
|
|
11 |
Amazon
|
22,203
|
16.2
|
0:12:22
|
|
12 |
Weather Channel
|
19,705
|
14.4
|
0:10:37
|
|
13 |
Ask Search Network
|
17,286
|
12.6
|
0:12:56
|
|
14 |
Real Network
|
17,159
|
12.5
|
0:23:22
|
|
15 |
CNN Digital Network
|
16,805
|
12.2
|
0:19:34
|
|
16 |
Blogger
|
16,201
|
11.8
|
0:06:59
|
|
17 |
About.com
|
14,888
|
10.8
|
0:03:49
|
|
18 |
Bank of America
|
13,216
|
9.6
|
0:22:42
|
|
19 |
AT&T
|
12,783
|
9.3
|
0:24:37
|
|
20 |
Facebook
|
10,505
|
7.7
|
0:27:58
|
|
21 |
Craigslist
|
10,015
|
7.3
|
0:35:44
|
|
22 |
Comcast
|
9,704
|
7.1
|
0:37:08
|
|
23 |
IMDb - Internet Movie Database
|
9,383
|
6.8
|
0:07:38
|
|
24 |
Disney Online
|
9,365
|
6.8
|
0:22:41
|
|
25 |
Chase
|
9,202
|
6.7
|
0:16:12
|
|
Source: Nielsen Online |
|
Top 25 advertisers
(excludes house ads)
Through Jan. 20 |
|
#
|
Company
|
Impressions (000)
|
|
1 |
NexTag, Inc.
|
6,950,658
|
|
2 |
Experian Group Limited
|
6,393,758
|
|
3 |
Netflix, Inc.
|
3,764,913
|
|
4 |
Vonage Holdings Corp
|
2,040,842
|
|
5 |
InterActiveCorp
|
1,941,998
|
|
6 |
Countrywide Financial Corporation
|
1,906,895
|
|
7 |
Low Rate Source
|
1,344,582
|
|
8 |
HSBC Holdings plc
|
1,106,354
|
|
9 |
Echostar Communications Corporation
|
1,095,726
|
|
10 |
Apollo Group, Inc.
|
821,798
|
|
11 |
AT&T Corp.
|
657,478
|
|
12 |
Verizon Communications, Inc.
|
648,589
|
|
13 |
Scottrade, Inc.
|
618,372
|
|
14 |
Citigroup Inc.
|
597,072
|
|
15 |
Target Corporation
|
478,313
|
|
16 |
Wachovia Corporation
|
431,137
|
|
17 |
United Online, Inc.
|
417,085
|
|
18 |
Low.com
|
402,096
|
|
19 |
GiftFreebies.com
|
401,283
|
|
20 |
E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corp.
|
387,389
|
|
21 |
Fidelity Investments
|
362,852
|
|
22 |
Privacy Matters
|
343,019
|
|
23 |
eBay, Inc.
|
326,533
|
|
24 |
Dell Computer Corporation
|
302,676
|
|
25 |
TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation
|
300,240
|
|
Source: Nielsen Online, AdRelevance
Note: Nielsen Online, AdRelevance service estimated online advertising expenditures account for CPM-based image-based advertising. All reported estimated expenditures and impressions do not account for the following placement types: text only, paid fee services, performance-based campaigns, sponsorships, barters, in-stream ("pre-rolls") players, messenger applications, partnership advertising, promotions and email campaigns. AdRelevance currently does not report estimated spending for paid search advertising. Also, Nielsen Online, AdRelevance reporting data reflects advertising activity served on pages accessible via the World Wide Web and not within AOL's proprietary service. |
|
Top 25 advertising sites
(excludes house ads)
Through Jan. 20 |
|
|
Company
|
Impressions (000)
|
|
1 |
Yahoo!
|
32,777,903
|
|
2 |
AOL.com
|
1,655,416
|
|
3 |
MSN
|
1,419,177
|
|
4 |
MSNBC
|
1,193,176
|
|
5 |
MySpace
|
961,946
|
|
6 |
Comcast.net
|
617,846
|
|
7 |
eBay
|
594,896
|
|
8 |
Home & Garden Television
|
516,224
|
|
9 |
Juno
|
476,901
|
|
10 |
The Weather Channel
|
475,758
|
|
11 |
IMDb
|
471,693
|
|
12 |
FOXNEWS.COM
|
452,188
|
|
13 |
New York Times
|
452,118
|
|
14 |
NeoPets
|
451,608
|
|
15 |
NetZero
|
438,606
|
|
16 |
MyPoints
|
421,389
|
|
17 |
Facebook
|
405,266
|
|
18 |
CNN
|
394,890
|
|
19 |
Photobucket
|
326,879
|
|
20 |
Amazon
|
268,895
|
|
21 |
CNN Money
|
208,656
|
|
22 |
Excite
|
181,873
|
|
23 |
NFL.com
|
152,180
|
|
24 |
iWon
|
148,789
|
|
25 |
Verizon Online
|
146,501
|
|
Source: Nielsen Online, AdRelevance
Note: Nielsen Online, AdRelevance service estimated online advertising expenditures account for CPM-based image-based advertising. All reported estimated expenditures and impressions do not account for the following placement types: text only, paid fee services, performance-based campaigns, sponsorships, barters, in-stream ("pre-rolls") players, messenger applications, partnership advertising, promotions and email campaigns. AdRelevance currently does not report estimated spending for paid search advertising. Above data does not include any house advertising activity. Also, Nielsen Online, AdRelevance reporting data reflects advertising activity served on pages accessible via the World Wide Web and not within AOL's proprietary service. |
|
Average use
Through Jan. 20 |
|
|
Current Week
|
Last Week
|
% Change
|
|
Sessions/Visits per Person
|
17
|
17
|
0
|
|
Domains Visited per Person
|
41
|
40
|
2.5
|
|
PC Time per Person
|
18:36:59
|
18:21:57
|
1.36
|
|
Active Digital Media Universe
|
137,311,600
|
138,338,116
|
-0.74
|
|
Current Digital Media Universe Estimate
|
220,192,326
|
220,188,390
|
0
|
|
Source: Nielsen Online |
|
|
|
