Media economy
Yet more bad news on the first quarter
By Louisa Ada Seltzer
Jun 11, 2009 - 8:36:02 AM

By all accounts, the first quarter of 2009 was a bad one for the media economy. Now add another account, this from TNS Media Intelligence, which tracks ad spending.

It's reporting that ad spending sunk 14 percent in the first three months of the year, to $30.18 billion. That decline was even worse than that of the fourth quarter of 2008, when spending sank 9 percent. TNS calls the first quarter dip the worst since it began tracking ad spending in 2000.

The TNS report follows by days a similarly dour report from Nielsen of a 12 percent drop in ad spending during that period.

None of this bodes well for the ad economy and its long-hoped-for recovery. It's already the longest ad downturn since World War II, in the minds of some ad trackers. Jon Swallen, TNS's research chief, appears downright glum on prospects for recovery, noting that the second quarter has started off no better off than the first one ended.

Says Swallen in a statement: “While there are hopeful signs of general economic indicators bottoming out, the advertising sector still appears to be lagging behind. Available data from second quarter shows ad expenditures tracking on a comparable plane to recent months.”

The question no one can really answer is just how much of the first quarter's dreadful numbers reflect advertisers' reaction to the collapse of the U.S. economy in the fall versus on the ongoing, longer-term slowdown in ad spending.

Clearly, in the wake of the economic meltdown advertisers slashed spending even more than they had in previous months, just as they had in the months following the tragedy of 9/11 in 2001. And it appears they continued to hold back on spending well into the first quarter as they waited, along with everyone else in America, to see how the new president would set about rebuilding the economy.

What's unclear at this point is how much that wait-and-see mindset is still dictating ad spending decisions.

According to a variety of sources, media sellers are beginning to see early signs that advertisers are beginning to spend, based on some reports that consumers are opening their wallets again.

One encouraging sign is the spot TV marketplace, where units sold are on a par with last year, even though prices are well off, as a flush of new advertisers enter the market to replace much of the spending by Detroit.

TV held up better than most other areas of media during first quarter, according to TNS, with spending down 9.7 percent overall.

Radio had the steepest decline of any media, off 26.2 percent, while newspapers slid 25.5 percent.

Magazines were off 20.5 percent and outdoor down 14.6 percent, with online the only category to register an increase, up 8.2 percent.