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Yet more bad news
on the first quarter


TNS reports a 14 percent decline in spending

Jun 11, 2009

By all accounts, the first quarter of 2009 was a bad one for the media economy. Now add another account, this from TNS Media Intelligence, which tracks ad spending.

It's reporting that ad spending sunk 14 percent in the first three months of the year, to $30.18 billion. That decline was even worse than that of the fourth quarter of 2008, when spending sank 9 percent. TNS calls the first quarter dip the worst since it began tracking ad spending in 2000.

The TNS report follows by days a similarly dour report from Nielsen of a 12 percent drop in ad spending during that period.

None of this bodes well for the ad economy and its long-hoped-for recovery. It's already the longest ad downturn since World War II, in the minds of some ad trackers. Jon Swallen, TNS's research chief, appears downright glum on prospects for recovery, noting that the second quarter has started off no better off than the first one ended.

Says Swallen in a statement: “While there are hopeful signs of general economic indicators bottoming out, the advertising sector still appears to be lagging behind. Available data from second quarter shows ad expenditures tracking on a comparable plane to recent months.”

The question no one can really answer is just how much of the first quarter's dreadful numbers reflect advertisers' reaction to the collapse of the U.S. economy in the fall versus on the ongoing, longer-term slowdown in ad spending.

Clearly, in the wake of the economic meltdown advertisers slashed spending even more than they had in previous months, just as they had in the months following the tragedy of 9/11 in 2001. And it appears they continued to hold back on spending well into the first quarter as they waited, along with everyone else in America, to see how the new president would set about rebuilding the economy.

What's unclear at this point is how much that wait-and-see mindset is still dictating ad spending decisions.

According to a variety of sources, media sellers are beginning to see early signs that advertisers are beginning to spend, based on some reports that consumers are opening their wallets again.

One encouraging sign is the spot TV marketplace, where units sold are on a par with last year, even though prices are well off, as a flush of new advertisers enter the market to replace much of the spending by Detroit.

TV held up better than most other areas of media during first quarter, according to TNS, with spending down 9.7 percent overall.

Radio had the steepest decline of any media, off 26.2 percent, while newspapers slid 25.5 percent.

Magazines were off 20.5 percent and outdoor down 14.6 percent, with online the only category to register an increase, up 8.2 percent.

 

Percent Change in Measured Ad Spending:
 Q1 2009 vs. Q1 2008 1

MEDIA SECTOR
· Media Type
(shown in rank order of 2009 spending)
% CHANGE
TELEVISION MEDIA -9.7%
·    Network TV   -4.2%
·    Cable TV -2.7%
·    Spot TV 2 -27.5%
·    Syndication - National 0.2%
·    Spanish Language TV   -15.4%
MAGAZINE MEDIA 3 -20.5%
·    Consumer Magazines -19.2%
·    B-to-B Magazines -25.5%
·    Sunday Magazines -23.7%
·    Local Magazines -25.3%
·    Spanish Language Magazines -20.5%
NEWSPAPER MEDIA 4 -25.5%
·    Newspapers (Local) -25.1%
·    National Newspapers -28.5%
·    Spanish Language Newspapers -21.6%
INTERNET (display ads only) 8.2%
RADIO MEDIA -26.2%
·    Local Radio 5 -26.8%
·    National Spot Radio -31.7%
·    Network Radio -11.2%
OUTDOOR -14.6%
FSIs 6 -0.2%
TOTAL -14.2%
S ource: TNS Media Intelligence
1. Figures are based on the TNS Media Intelligence Stradegy™ multimedia ad expenditure database across all TNS MI measured media, including: Network TV; Spot TV (135 DMAs); Cable TV (67networks); Syndication TV; Hispanic Network TV (4 networks); Consumer Magazines (226 publications); Sunday Magazines (7 publications); Local Magazines (24 publications); Hispanic Magazines (19 publications); Business-to-Business Magazines (362 publications); Local Newspapers (148 publications); National Newspapers (3 publications); Hispanic Newspapers (48 publications); Network Radio (5 networks); Spot Radio; Local Radio (32 markets); Internet; and Outdoor. Figures do not include public service announcement (PSA) data.
2. Spot TV figures do not include Hispanic Spot TV data.
3. Magazine media includes Publishers Information Bureau (PIB) data and reflect print editions of publications.
4. Newspaper media figures reflect print editions of the publications.
5. Local Radio includes expenditures for 32 markets in the U.S.
6. FSI data represents distribution costs only.



Louisa Ada Seltzer is a staff writer for Media Life.




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