A few weeks back, the big question among media buyers was how the broadcast networks would play the upfront market. In light of the weak ad economy, would they bow to pressure from buyers and accept lower prices, hoping to sell as much ad inventory as they could?

Or would they hold out for higher prices, and hold back inventory if they couldn't get them?

We now have the answer. The networks will go for the dollars.

While no deals have been done yet, in discussions with media buyers the networks appear to be aiming to raise prices by 5 percent or so from last year.

“The networks are trying to hold out for increases,” one buyer tells Media Life. “They are talking that way.”

Several factors appear to be behind the networks’ strategy. For one they clearly think the U.S. economy is improving, and it's also likely they've come to believe there are more ad dollars out there than media people were thinking only a few weeks ago.

Indeed, just a few weeks ago, media people thought network upfront sales would tumble this year, perhaps coming in as much as 20 percent lower than last year. More recently, the thinking has been that sales will come in flat or down slightly.

Another factor working in favor of the networks is that prices having been inching up in the scatter market, where inventory not sold in the upfront market is auctioned off through the year.

“Scatter pricing is still a few percentage points above last year's upfront, which typically signals current-year upfront pricing levels,” notes David Joyce, an analyst with Miller Tabak.

When scatter prices are strong, the networks know they can hold back inventory and sell it later in the year, likely at a premium. They also know that high scatter prices have a way of herding buyers into committing client dollars in the upfront for fear of having to pay more later in the year.

Typically, the networks sell about 75 percent to 80 percent of the coming year’s ad inventory in the upfront market.

And in strong years, they usually do so while reaping hefty gains in prices, with the effect of driving up total ad sales from the prior year.

But in a down market like this one, facing pressure from buyers, they must make a choice over whether to sell all they can at whatever prices they can get or hold out for price increases and sell only as much inventory as they need to at those prices, betting that prices will rise as the economy improves.

That appears to be the case this year, as Joyce observes. “The networks are likely to sell less inventory now, which will create more demand in later quarters when the economy's better,” says Joyce.

Advertisers spend about $20 billion in the TV upfront across broadcast, cable TV and syndication. A few buyers say budgets this year may be down about 5 percent from last year. But some are now saying spending will possibly be flat or only slightly down.

A big factor behind most of the early dour forecasts for the upfront was the budget slashing by Detroit automakers, but buyers are saying that other ad categories are increasing their spending, with the effect of making up for a good share of those cuts.

Among the advertisers coming in with more money are movies and some of the foreign carmakers. They see the domestic car companies’ financial troubles as an opportunity to snag market share. They’ll spend accordingly.

Most years the upfront would be well underway by now.

But buyers say they’re still waiting on budgets from some of their clients. The weak economy has understandably made a few advertisers skittish about committing millions of dollars in the upfront when it’s unclear when the economy will come out of recession.

“I wouldn’t say we’re at a standstill,” says one network negotiator. “There are definitely conversations going on.”