This is already the oddest television upfront market in recent memory, starting late, stalling, then starting again, all amid a sea of conflicting reports on whether buyers have the edge, or sellers, and just how much advertiser demand is out there after all.
Here's the latest update: The upfront is moving along, if at a snail's pace. Some broadcast deals are being done, but they're being done on the quiet.
Advertisers, responding to the weakened economy, are pressing buyers to wring deep cuts from the broadcast networks.
Sellers are willing to give in some on pricing but are rejecting big cuts. Buyers, stuck in the middle, are striking deals with sellers for low-single-digit price cuts, on average, but are understandably anxious to keep a lid on just what terms they worked out.
Deals are also being written in the cable upfront and starting to be written for syndicated television and Spanish-language TV.
The last upfront, kids TV, is stalled over a huge difference in what buyers are willing to pay and what pricing the kids’ networks will accept.
Buyers are looking for big breaks in prices. “We’ve told the [kids’] cable networks where they have to be,” says a media buyer. “Someone’s going to blink. Someone’s going to take it. Budgets are down across the board.”
This buyer says a big reason for the weak kids’ upfront is Wal-Mart, the No. 1 toy retailer, which he says has dramatically cut back on the number of toys it will carry this Christmas.
As for broadcast, buyers and sellers say NBC is fetching the lowest prices--roughly 10 percent below what ABC and CBS are asking for. And the network is taking an even bigger beating for ad inventory in its 10 p.m. weeknight timeslot, which Jay Leno is taking over in the fall.
In terms of pricing, ABC and Fox are seeing dips in the range of 2 percent in CPMs, or costs per thousand, what it costs to reach 1,000 viewers.
NBC is agreeing to cuts in the high-single-digit percentages for its 8-10 p.m. lineup.
CBS is asking for increases of 5 percent over last year, and buyers say it may come close to getting them, as the only broadcast network to post ratings increases last season.
In cable, deals are being written with CPM cuts of about 2 percent, on average.
The syndication upfront typically moves after broadcast and cable, benefitting from overflowing demand in good years and following broadcast’s and cable’s lead in price cuts in not-so-good years. A few minor syndication deals are close to being written. But it’ll be weeks before serious negotiations get underway.
“Given what’s being talked about with network TV, syndication isn’t anxious to move forward,” says one buyer.
In Spanish-language TV, most years its upfront unfolds over the summer. That will be the case again this year, with negotiations slowly getting started.
“Everything is behind schedule,” says Tom Maney, senior vice president of ad sales at Fox Sports en Espanol. “It’s moving at half the speed.”
Total spending in the Spanish-language upfront is expected to be down a few percentage points.
Buyers are looking for CPM rollbacks from last year, but negotiations are still in the earliest stages, says Leticia Juarez, vice president of media and promotions at Castells & Asociados in Los Angeles.
“The upfront is at a standstill,” she says. “It’s a wait-and-see situation. Clients are looking for discounts and we’re not eager to lock in prices because we feel that maybe we’re not where we need to be yet.”