The big story in
2010: The ad recovery
Look to the second quarter for the first signs
By Louisa Ada Seltzer
Jan 5, 2010
After such a dismal 2009 for media, folks are looking for any signs of relief, and the best guess at this point is that relief will come in the second quarter of 2010 in the form a rebound in ad spending, or at least the early signs of one.
Or at least that's outlook of media planners and buyers as they look forward to the coming year. In a readers' poll posted over the holiday break, planners and buyers were asked to opine on what 2010 held for media.
Recovery was high on their list.
Asked when they expected to see the first signs of recovery, the largest share--30 percent--saw it coming in the second quarter, with third quarter coming in second at 22 percent. Nearly 11 percent saw it coming even sooner, in first quarter.
But close to 15 percent believed it would not come until the fourth quarter, and a slightly larger share, 17 percent, thought a recovery would not come until 2011.
And what will drive that recovery?
Probably not a rebound in auto ad spending, though that would certainly help.
Readers think the big driver will be heavy election spending, led by Republicans pouring in money into the midterm elections hoping to play off those disillusioned by the Obama administration and Democrats in general.
Nearly a third of respondents, 33 percent, saw election spending as leading a recovery, while just 15 percent thought automotive would be the driver.
In fact, automotive came behind both improvements in local media spending and gains in television spending, which each got just under 16 percent of the vote.
Gains in online spending came in at 12 percent, while a recovery in newspapers, magazines and radio, the worst-hit media, got the smallest number of votes, just 6 percent.
The Winter Olympics are coming up shortly, but media people don't think they'll quite live up to Beijing two years ago.
Asked how well they thought the Games would do, just 18 percent of respondents thought they'd be a big success, agreeing with this statement: "NBC did very well with the 2008 Summer Games, and I expect this year's Games, taking place in North America during a time when we could really use something to draw together a recession-ravaged nation, to perform well, too."
Nearly two thirds, 59 percent, agreed with this statement: "Neither a success nor a failure. I think the competition, mostly 'American Idol,' will once again lead to all-time lows for the Games, but it will give NBC a larger-than-usual audience for promos of its new and returning shows."
And 23 percent thought the games will be a big disappointment, agreeing with this statement: "The network has already admitted it will lose $200 million on the Games. What more is there to say?"
An issue on media people's minds at the start of each new year is how well Fox's "American Idol" will hold up in the ratings, and this year the issue is whether new judge Ellen DeGeneres will help or hurt the show.
The answer appears to be neither. Nearly half of respondents, 45 percent, agreed with this statement: "Ratings will be about flat to last year. It's about the singers, not the judges."
The next-largest share, 28 percent, thought she would hurt the show, agreeing with this statement: "DeGeneres is great, but she was a ludicrous choice for this show. We'll see a substantial ratings dropoff."
A slightly smaller share, 27 percent, saw DeGeneres as a plus, agreeing with this statement: "DeGeneres is just what this aging show needs to spice up the format."
When it comes to aging shows (other than "Idol") there's always the question of which one is most likely to see a steep slide in ratings in the coming year, and this year that dubious honor goes to ABC's "Desperate Housewives."
But it's by a narrow edge. "Housewives" got 25 percent of the vote, just ahead of the CW's "America's Next Top Model" at 21 percent and Fox's "24" at just over 20 percent. And not far behind at 15 percent was NBC’s “Law & Order" franchise.
The show voted the least likely to see a decline was TNT's "The Closer."
Readers were asked which big magazine titles they expected to see fold, and as one might expected the answers were all over the place, but several titles kept popping up on people's lists: Newsweek, Playboy, TV Guide, Entertainment Weekly and O, the Oprah Winfrey magazine.
In TV, one of the big stories of 2009 was the debut of Jay Leno's 10 p.m. weeknight show, and the big question in 2010 is whether it will last the year now that NBC is coming under the control of Comcast.
The answer would appear to be likely not, as least as media planners and buyers see things.
Nearly two thirds of respondents, 60 percent, believed the show will be gone by the end of the year, with just 40 percent thinking it will survive.
And what should media people watch for in TV in 2010?
The biggie: Even more time-shifted programming, through DVRs and online.
That was the choice of 65 percent of respondents (they were to choose one or more answers).
Next, but well down in votes--39 percent--was the ongoing panic over a lack of replacement for "Oprah" among local affiliates when her syndicated show ends.
Third at 29 percent was the rise of more second-tier networks as viewership thins out for top-tier networks, and fourth at 26 percent was the decline of "American Idol" as TV's top show.
The top trend in newspapers, in the view of 58 percent of respondents, will be more papers switching to online-only publishing. That came ahead of more newspapers closing at 53 percent and more circulation slides at 39 percent.
What we're less likely to see in 2010 are more newspapers simplifying their rate cards. That got 21 percent of the vote. And we probably won't see a rebound in newspapers' online advertising revenue, in the view of media planner and buyers. That got just 8 percent of the vote.
Trends to watch in magazines will be similar. The big trend will be the folding of more titles, at 51 percent of the vote, just ahead of a new round of titles folding their print editions to go online only, at 48 percent.
Third, at 35 percent, came a thinning out of the newsstand celeb titles, and fourth at 30 percent came a surge in online-only magazine launches.
While there's been much talk of pay walls for magazines and newspapers, media people do not see them as a big trend in 2010 for either.
For magazines, just 25 percent of respondents saw pay walls as a big trend this year, while just 33 percent saw it as a trend in newspapers.
Readers have varied opinions on what the defining media story of 2010 will be. Many expect Comcast's acquisition of NBC to have a huge impact on the state of media, while others foresee another NBC story rising to the fore -- the cancellation of "The Jay Leno Show."
Others believe that Tiger Woods' return to golf, whenever that happens, will generate the most media coverage.
And some forecast a media economy recovery driven by online advertising as print continues to suffer.
Others had more outlandish predictions for the coming year's top story.
"All the long-standing magazines being shuttered," suggested one reader.
"The removal of Conan [O'Brien] from 'The Tonight Show,'" predicted another.
"Coverage of a possible war in Iran," said another.
And yet another: "Tribune will close most of its newspaper operations."
As for how ABC hit "Lost" will wrap up its final season this spring, readers had dozens of theories. The most popular was that the series was all a dream or a hallucination by one of its cast members.
Others predicted a less clichéd finish.
"Because of the time loop, we see the characters' lives as if the island never happened and we see that they will still meet and interact," suggested one reader.
Said another, "The black shadow and the polar bear will dance a jig on John's grave." And another: "Beach wedding for Kate and Jack."
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