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The big 2008 story:
The ad slowdown


Say media planners and buyers in a Media Life poll

Jan 5, 2009

Looking back a year ago, media people believed the writers' strike, then ongoing, was the big story that defined 2007 in media and would likely define 2008 as well.

How prescient they were.

Though settled in the spring, the strike and its effects are still being felt across the media marketplace, most notably in the weaker ratings for the broadcast networks through the fall.

Weighing in once again, media people are ranking the strike as 2008's biggest media debacle, and by hefty margins.

In a Media Life poll posted over the holidays, 46 percent of respondents placed it at the top of their list. Nothing else came even close. No. 2, at 12 percent, was the rash of broadcast flops during the strike. All the other choices saw single-digit percentages, from the PPM flap in New York to the Tribune Co. bankruptcy filing.

But the big story of 2008, no surprise, was the slowdown in ad spending, in the view of media planners and buyers. In the polls, 29 percent of respondents ranked it No. 1, ahead even of the strike and its aftereffects, which came in at No. 2 with 21 percent of the vote.

No. 3 was the layoffs across media, at 17 percent, and fourth, at 9 percent, was the suffering of newspapers amid declining circulation and ad revenue.

The biggest media casualty of 2008 was the drying up of automotive advertising, which was felt all across media, at 39 percent, just ahead of media layoffs at 32 percent. No. 3, at 22 percent, was the death of "Meet the Press" host Tim Russert.

Noncontenders, receiving very few votes apiece, were the closing of magazines from Radar to Playgirl, the exit of Bonnie Fuller from Star and the folding of The New York Sun.

Media planners and buyers rank CBS as the top broadcast network of the year at 37 percent, with Fox second at 26 percent and ABC third at 20 percent.

NBC came in a 6 percent, just ahead of the CW and Ion at 4 percent. MyNetworkTV got 2 percent of the vote.

Media people chose AMC's "Mad Men" as the show that defined 2008 in television, at 33 percent, giving it a sizable lead over the Olympics at just over 21 percent. Third, and right behind at 21 percent, was NBC's "Saturday Night Live," which picked up plenty of buzz this year, especially during the elections.

Readers were asked to name the magazine closing that most surprised them. Nearly two thirds, 66 percent, chose none, agreeing with this statement: "Nothing surprises me at this point."

As to the big story of the coming year, media people were all over the place, but much of their concern is the weakened U.S. economy and how that will play out in the media marketplace, or as one reader put it, "how the media handle the economic meltdown." Wrote another: "Anything relating to Barack Obama and the economy."

In television, the big story of 2009 will be even more time-shifted programming, through DVRs and online. Nearly two thirds, 57 percent, chose that as the story to follow in the coming year. No. 2, at 53 percent (readers were asked to choose one or more responses), was the analog-to-digital TV switchover, and third was the rise of more second-tier networks as viewership thins out for top-tier networks, at 31 percent. Close behind at 30 percent was the fading of Fox's "American Idol," after years of being the No. 1 show.

The big newspaper story of 2009 will be the increasing number of newspapers making the switch to online-only publishing, at 65 percent. No. 2, at 50 percent was more big circulation slides. And third was more newsroom layoffs, at 40 percent.

Readers expect to see much the same thing in magazines. At 59 percent was more titles folding their print editions to go online only and at 55 percent was a new round of titles folding. Third at 40 percent was further declines in ad pages and ad revenue.



Louisa Ada Seltzer is a staff writer for Media Life.




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