Media economy
Readers: Yes, we're still toughing it out
By Louisa Ada Seltzer
Oct 27, 2009 - 8:50:17 AM

Four months ago, Media Life polled media planners and buyers about how they were faring through this ad recession, now a couple of years old and arguably the longest since World War II, if not the worst.

What was surprising was that for all the layoffs and travails, including longer hours and fewer if any pay raises, Media Life readers were holding up surprisingly well. They were not grumbling nearly as much as folks in other areas of media, such as newspapers, where the cuts have been deeper and more widespread.

Media Life can report that in the time since, morale appears to have held up pretty well.

The most notable change is that media people don't see a recovery in the ad economy coming as soon has they had back in June. Then the largest share of respondents, 40 percent, thought the ad economy would begin to recover in the first half of 2010.

In the more recent poll, which ran last week, an even larger share, 55 percent, believed recovery would not begin until the second half of 2010.

The next-largest group, 22 percent, thought recovery would begin in 2011.

Just 7 percent saw it beginning in the first half of 2010, and more ominously, 11 percent agreed with this statement: “Frankly, not ever. We are seeing a massive shift away from traditional advertising as we know it." That's up from 9 percent in June.

Also what changed in the four months is how planners and buyers are viewing the performances of top agency managers. They're not as impressed.

Readers were given four statements reflecting how well, or not well, managers were dealing with the ad recession, and asked to choose one.

Back in June, the answer that drew the highest response, 41 percent, was: "Just so-so. We sense the top people are too busy shoring up the business to spend much time on morale issues. Some of us are holding up better than others."

Second, at 29 percent, was: "Terribly. They say next to nothing, and then the cuts come. No one knows where he or she stands."

In the more recent poll, the ranks changed, with the "Terribly" response the first choice at 35 percent and "Just so-so" at 31 percent.

The fourth choice in both polls was: "In a first-rate fashion. Management has shown real leadership in keeping us advised of where the business is, and they've gone out of their way to help those who have been laid off," but that response dropped slightly in the more recent polls, to 13 percent from 15 percent.

The third choice in both polls was: "About what you would expect. They’ve been good to people who’ve been let go and they’ve made some efforts to keep us informed of where the business is." But oddly, while it appears more people think management is doing a terrible job, more people also seem to think they're doing what you'd expect. That response rose from 15 percent in June to 22 percent.

As far as job cuts go, it still appears that media departments continue to escape the worst of this ad recession. Back in June, 44 percent of respondents reported major cuts at their agencies in the past year or so. But the remainder reported either no cuts or few cuts.

That has not changed very much. Now 48 percent report major cuts in the past year or so, but the majority continue to report either few cuts or no cuts.

Morale appears not to have suffered at all. Back in June, nearly half of respondents, 47 percent, characterized morale as: "Just so-so. Some of us are holding up better than others." That figure is now 48 percent.

In June, 21 percent characterized morale at their agency as: "Terrible. People are nervous about coming to work lest they learn that they're being laid off that day." That figure has not changed.

In June, 27 percent characterized morale as: "Decent, all things considered. While we've seen some layoffs, there's no real sense that further jobs are at risk." That figure has dipped to 23 percent.

In June, 4 percent characterized morale as: "High, in a word. Business is good and we are all too busy to think of much else but the work in front of us." That figure is now 8 percent.

Back in June, few people were seeing pay raises, and that has not changed. Back then, 69 percent of respondents agreed with this statement: "Salaries have been frozen for some time." That figure is now 67 percent.

Lastly, it appears that business hasn't gotten any better in the past four months.

Readers were asked: Have you seen any improvements in the business your agency is doing in recent months to suggest the ad economy is finally recovering?

Back in June, 43 percent of respondents reported that business was flat, 19 percent thought business was worse, 34 percent saw a slight improvement, and 4 percent reported a real surge in the past month or so.

In last week's poll, 46 percent reported that business was flat, 13 percent that it had gotten worse, 33 percent that it had improved slightly, and 8 percent that business had surged recently.