Ray of light in the
global ad outlook
ZenithOptimedia knocks down 2009 ad spending outlook
By Louisa Ada Seltzer
Jul 6, 2009
You have to dig a bit to find it, but there is a glimmer of hope in the latest global ad spending forecast, released today by Zenith Optimedia.
Though the agency downgraded its 2009 global forecast from a decrease of 6.9 percent to a decrease of 8.5 percent, prompted by a disappointing first quarter, it suggests that the worst of the ad recession may be behind us.
“For all sectors the shape of the rest of the year is becoming clearer. Q2 was not quite as tough as Q1, and we have held our expectations for the rest of the year steady, as signs emerge that the downturn is approaching its nadir,” the report says. “The downturn started in Q3 2008, so from now on year-on-year comparisons will start to get a lot easier.”
Further, there are parts of the world where ad spending continues to increase, with 25 of the 79 markets that ZenithOptimedia tracks showing increases. Granted, most are smaller, young markets, but that number includes China, whose ad spending will jump 5.4 percent this year to overtake the UK as the world’s fourth-largest ad market.
The worldwide recovery will begin in earnest next year, the agency predicts, with global ad spending up 1.6 percent and 62 markets experiencing growth.
North America’s recovery will lag that of the rest of the world, however. ZenithOptimedia predicts that ad spending will decrease another 2.4 percent next year, following a 3.7 percent decline last year and a 10.3 percent falloff this year.
One area that will hold up well during this downturn is online, with expenditures still expected to grow by 10.1 percent worldwide this year, up from a prediction of 8.6 percent in April.
The news is not so good for newspapers, which will see ad spending shrink 14.7 percent this year and continue contracting through at least 2011.
Magazines, too, stand to suffer over the next year, with a decline of 16.7 percent this year. Still, they may bounce back quicker than newspapers, “since the experience of reading a magazine is less easy to replicate on the internet.”
Magazines will be up 1.5 percent by 2011, according to the report.
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