As of yesterday, the broadcast networks are bit better off going into the upfront negotations, thanks to data from Nielsen Media Research on average-commercial-minute ratings.

When those ratings are combined with live-plus-three-day DVR ratings as the new currency for upfront negotiations, the Big Four networks are seeing a slight bump in viewing over the old currency of live-only viewing and ratings based on actual shows.

For the first week of May, using the new currency, the Big Four networks averaged a 3.12 rating among 18-49s viewers, versus a 3.11 under the old currency, based on an NBC analysis of the Nielsen data.

The new currency of average commercial ratings and live-plus three days was agreed upon several weeks ago by the networks and the major media buying agencies, and it was a significant compromise.

Both sides were unhappy with the old currency, the networks because live-only viewing left out an ever-growing population of viewers watching shows on TiVos and other recording devices, sometimes days after the original airing, buyers because ad prices were being set on ratings for shows when what really mattered was how many people were seeing their clients' commercials. Presumably, that was a lower number.

In reaching the agreement, the sense was that the gains from added delayed viewing would offset the losses from using commercial ratings in place of show ratings.

But it was only recently that Nielsen has been able to provide the data that make the new currency even possible. It began releasing delayed viewing data for the first time a year ago December, and yesterday was the first time commercial ratings became available.

Alan Wurtzel, president of research and media development at NBC, says the fresh Nielsen data proves the value of the delayed-viewing audience. "Last year, advertisers insisted on live ratings because they said no commercial that is viewed on a time-shifted DVR has any value, but clearly the commercial ratings say that’s not true."

A number of reports came out over the past few months showing that commercial ratings in network primetime are about 5 percent lower than program ratings, and that left many believing that the networks would come out worse using the new currency.

That's turned out not to be the case. "The difference between live and live-plus-ACM ratings is roughly flat for primetime," says John Spiropoulos, vice president and group research director at MediaVest.

Nielsen yesterday reported that about 99 percent of viewing to primetime programs occurs within three days of the original broadcast, boosting the networks’ ratings over live-only data. On average, only 90 percent of viewing among adults 18-49 occurs during the initial broadcast of a primetime show.

"If you’re going to accurately measure television, the live data stream is irrelevant," says Wurtzel. "It’s being used less and less and as DVR usage increases, which it will, people will be watching live less and time-shifted more."

Not all broadcast programs fare well with the new currency but many do better with the new data than the live-only ratings.

Shows like NBC’s "The Office," Fox’s "Family Guy," the CW’s "Smallville," ABC’s "Grey’s Anatomy" and CBS’s "Numb3rs" see higher ratings using the live-plus-three-day commercial ratings than the live-only ratings.

"Office’s" 18-49 rating in the first week of May, for instance, went up 8 percent to a 3.36 compared to a 3.11 live-only rating. And "Family Guy’s" rating increased to a 3.63 from a 3.44 rating.

In general, sitcoms and dramas do better than sports and reality shows, which see a dip in ratings from program to commercial but don’t get much of a lift from DVR playback.

"These shows aren’t time-shifted as much," notes Spiropoulos. "There’s more urgency to watch [reality and sports] live, so they’ll have the declines in commercial ratings but they don’t have the time-shifted viewing to offset that loss."

The overall effect of the new ratings will be slightly beneficial to the broadcast networks when the upfront market breaks, possibly next week.

Most forecasters have been predicting that ad spending will increase about 3 percent over last year because of heavy demand for inventory from advertisers, despite an overall decline in network ratings of about 10 percent this past season, including the loss of one network due to UPN and the WB merging into the CW.

Media buyers in a recent Media Life Magazine poll said they expect to see expenditures increase about 1 percent to 3 percent.