Media economy
More bad reports on the ad economy
By Heidi Dawley
Dec 8, 2008 - 9:02:57 AM

For media people it's been a tough fall, and today could bring more grim news about ad spending.

Two forecasts with little cheer for the media economy are out and a third, due out later, promises to delivery more of the same.

Media people can expect to see even more cuts in ad spending as a result of the financial turmoil that's rocked the nation in recent months.

ZenithOptimedia, the media arm of Publicis, is now forecasting ad spending in the U.S. will shrink by 3.8 percent this year, while WPP’s GroupM expects just 0.3 percent growth.

But there is some sign of hope: A recovery could start sooner than many have expected, midway through next year.

ZenithOptimedia’s forecast for 2009 looks dire at -6.2 percent, but the majority of the pain will be felt in the first half, with improvement beginning in the second half.

“It is likely to be a very mild recovery to begin with,” says Jonathan Barnard, head of publications at ZenithOptimedia in London. “But there might be mild growth year-on-year compared to a tough time a year earlier in the second half of 2009.”

Both the Zenith and Group M forecasts expect the U.S. and global media economies to decline for the first time since 2001, but the forecasts vary significantly.

ZenithOptimedia forecasts that this year the U.S. ad economy will be down 3.8 percent, leading into next year's 6.2 percent decline. But by  2010, recovery will set in and forecasters foresee growth of 2.1 percent. Just two months ago ZenithOptimedia was forecasting ad spending growth of 1.8 percent in 2008 and 0.7 percent in 2009.

GroupM forecasts that U.S. ad spending will be up 0.3 percent to $162 billion this year but will slump by 3.0 percent next year, hitting $157 billion.

For comparison purposes, in 2001 the ad economy dropped 6 percent in the U.S., after growing 12.0 percent the year before, according to ZenithOptimedia. In 2002 it grew 1.7 percent.

The ZenithOptimedia report forecasts TV, radio, magazines and newspapers will all be in negative terrain in both 2008 and 2009. Of these, times look toughest for newspapers, which are expected to decline 12 percent this year and 15 percent next.

Meanwhile, outdoor, the internet and cinema are forecast to grow in both years despite the current sour economy.

Growth for the internet is forecast to remain in the double digits, at 21.1 percent in 2008 – a figure which has not been downgraded in this report. Growth is expected to hit 18.1 percent in 2009. “There are some aspects, like measurability and accountability that help. But you have to also remember that it is a very young medium still in the history of advertising,” says Anne Austin, senior publications executive at ZenithOptimedia. “It is still finding its natural level.”

GroupM is also forecasting ad spending growth for the internet. It foresees growth of 16.0 percent this year and 5.0 percent next in the U.S.

Magna’s media forecaster, Robert Coen, is expected to add his forecast to the mix some time today, and it could well hit negative territory. In July, he cut his growth expectations to 2.0 percent from the 3.7 percent he had anticipated a year ago at this time.