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Forecast: China's
not looking as rosy


Carat lowers spending outlook for this year and next

Aug 27, 2008

China may be basking in a post-Olympic glow, but not all the news on the country today is positive.

A new global ad spending report has downgraded growth forecasts for the country for both this and next year.

Carat, the global media buying agency, has cut its 2008 estimates for year-on-year ad spending growth in China from 19.7 percent to 18.2 percent.

Its forecast for next year has been slashed even more heavily, from 13.2 percent growth to 10.9 percent.

Carat cites several factors, and one is what it sees as the continuing fallout from the May earthquake. The other is a steeper-than-expected dropoff in ad spending now that the athletes and cameras have left the Bird’s Nest stadium.

These figures come as part of a global forecast that has knocked down predictions for worldwide ad spending for both this year and next.

"It’s clear that the worldwide economic issues affecting businesses are having an impact on where and how advertisers spend their money," says Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Aegis Media, parent of Carat, in a statement.

"It is also significant that the U.S. and the U.K., as the highest spenders on advertising in their regions, are showing reduction in our forecast. But overall the picture is still one of growth."

Carat has pushed down its global growth forecast for 2008 to 4.9 percent from the 6.0 percent it forecast earlier this year. Next year the markdown is smaller, with growth expected to hit 4.8 percent around the globe rather than the previously forecast 4.9 percent.

The main reason for the marked-down growth expectations in 2008 is the slower-than-expected performance in the U.S., the UK, Spain and China.

For the U.S. the 2008’s forecast has dropped to growth of 2.1 percent, from the previous forecast of 3.8 percent. That’s thanks to the fact that newspapers, magazines and radio all have shown declines this year. TV, however, will still grow, spurred on by the presidential elections and the Olympics. The internet, too, is expected to do well.

But Carat has upped its forecast for the U.S. next year, with growth expected to exceed this year. Carat believes growth will hit 3.1 percent, rather than the previously forecast 2.6 percent, in 2009.

Looking at the global forecast, the figures show that ad spending for all media, barring newspapers, is expected to grow. The internet is expected to lead the growth table globally, up 23.7 percent in 2008 and 18.6 percent in 2009.

It is expected to be followed by cinema, which is forecast to grow 13.2 percent in 2008 and 13.3 percent in 2009. TV is forecast to be the next-fastest grower, up 5.9 percent in 2008 and 5.5 percent in 2009.

Outdoor is expected to grow 5.0 percent and 4.6 percent in the two years, respectively. Radio is forecast to grow 3.3 percent in each year, while the forecast for magazines is for growth of 1.7 percent in 2008 and 2.3 percent in 2009.

Newspapers, however, are expected to slump by 0.8 percent in 2008 and 0.2 percent in 2009.



Heidi Dawley is a staff writer for Media Life.




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