Media economy
Forecast: Ad $ will drop 7.6 percent
By Toni Fitzgerald
Aug 4, 2009 - 7:55:04 AM

It will be another two years before we begin to see advertising growth, and that’s after a brutal 2009 in which nearly all major categories will dip.

That’s the prediction of the latest Communications Industry Forecast from Veronis Suhler Stevenson, out today.

Ad spending will contract 7.6 percent this year, following a 2.9 percent decline in 2008. Next year will slip a more manageable 1 percent before finally increasing year-to-year in 2011.

The hardest-hit sector of media this year will be newspapers, off 18.7 percent to $35.5 billion, followed by consumer magazines, down 14.8 percent to $11 billion and radio, which will slide 11.7 percent to $15.8 billion.

Broadcast TV will also slip, down 10.1 percent to $43 billion.

The internet, which will rise 9.2 percent this year to $23.8 billion, and mobile, which will jump 18.1 percent to $1.3 billion, will lead the growth categories.

Last year’s ad spending declines tied in with less time spent overall with advertising-supported media such as newspapers and magazines. Instead, for the first time ever, consumers spent more time with paid media such as cable television and music downloads than ad-supported media.

Still, spending in the communications category as a whole increased by 2.3 percent last year to $882.6 billion. Though that was the slowest growth rate in seven years, it was growth nonetheless, and things other than advertising, such as marketing services, consumer sales, product sales and information sales, spurred it.



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