The broadcast upfront market is about to break, but the cable upfront, which typically follows, looks to be stalled, with media buyers and sellers in a standoff.

The holdup is over just how Nielsen Media Research’s new average-commercial-minute ratings and digital video recorder ratings will figure in negotiations. It could be a week or more before it's resolved.

Media buyers, having come to agreement with broadcast networks, want the cable networks to accept the new ratings as the currency for this year's negotiations. The networks are holding out for using the old currency for another year.

The old currency is live ratings and ratings for actual programs. The new currency combines ratings for commercial pods with what's called live plus three-day ratings--ratings for live viewing but also three additional days of viewing of shows recorded on DVRs.

Nielsen only began releasing commercial ratings last week.

“There’s still a lot of debate,” says one network executive. “I think it’ll be executed the way it was last year with program ratings. The data isn’t far enough along for anyone to execute with it.”

But cable has a more practical reason for resisting the new currency.

With the broadcast networks, the new currency is in effect a wash. What they lose with the commercial ratings they make up for with delayed viewing. Commercial ratings on average are about 7 percent lower than network program ratings. But the networks pick up a lot of audience that was not previously measured with the addition of live plus three. Some shows get a lot of DVR playback.

There's no such wash for cable. The networks see an even greater loss of audience using commercial ratings. Cable’s commercial ratings run 10 percent lower than program ratings, on average. And there's far less delayed viewing to compensate for that loss. Cable shows get very little delayed viewing.

Some compromise will be reached between buyers and cable networks. The question is when and under what terms. The cable networks are expecting the buyers to give in. One network executive says that if cable is forced to accept commercial ratings, buyers will simply end up paying more for what they get.

“The position cable is taking is that the inventory is more valuable if you’re only paying for commercials that are seen,” he says. “As a result, if they are more valuable, [networks] are going to charge a higher number.”

Several cable networks are adamant that they’ll only use the live program ratings. The decline in ratings from program to commercial is steep for some networks. A study by Magna Global found that Discovery, ESPN and MTV, for example, see declines of 13 percent or more.

Most media buyers say they will use the commercial-plus-three-day ratings no matter what.

“I just don’t see anyone giving cable a break,” says one negotiator. “If we are using commercial-minute ratings for broadcast, we’re going to use the same for cable. Whether or not that causes us to deadlock for a few weeks, I don’t know, but I don’t see any reason for letting them off the hook.”

He contends that even if buyers were to agree to the live-only ratings they will somehow have to be compensated for the falloff in commercial ratings, probably by paying lower cost-per-thousands than last year.

In any case, cable is still expected to see a slight increase in revenue over last year.

One reason is ratings. Cable’s share of the 18-49 primetime audience this past season was 43.2 percent, up from 41.3 percent last year, according to Turner’s analysis of Nielsen ratings. Broadcast TV’s share dipped to 38.2 percent, from 40.7 percent.

Moreover, advertising demand has been strong.

“We have seen a remarkably strong scatter market for four or five quarters in a row, and it’s only getting stronger,” says Bill Abbott, executive vice president of advertising sales at Hallmark Channel. “As a result, we think the upfront will be strong as well.”

Most forecasters expect cable TV’s revenue to increase about 3 percent.

Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen is projecting a 3 percent bump, to $7.5 billion. David Joyce at Miller Tabak & Co. is predicting an increase of 3.1 percent, to $6.6 billion. Forecaster Jack Myers expects to see a 1 percent increase, to $6.7 billion.

Upfront expenditures will be hampered as in recent years by an over-supply of rating points, however, and there’s no great urgency among media buyers to lock up inventory when plenty will be left over for negotiations in the scatter market.

“Cable suffers from there being too many choices,” says one buyer. “Nobody is a must-buy. There is so much inventory they are never going to catch a break.”