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feeling the same chills


As in the U.S., recession is taking a deep toll

Nov 13, 2008
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As in the U.S., so in Britain. As the weather turns cold, the economy here turns even colder, with yet more news of sinking revenues and cutbacks, and the cost is being felt directly by UK media.

Just yesterday, it was reported that unemployment has reached an 11-year high, that Virgin Media, a major cable operator, was axing 2,200 jobs, that Yell, a yellow pages company, was chopping jobs as well, and that a string of regional newspapers was reporting a 15.5 percent falloff in ad revenue through the first 10 months of the year. We also learned that Britons were planning to spend 7 percent less this holiday season.

And that's just one day of bad news after many.

“The British economy seems to have gone into recession earlier than other Western markets, and some people are saying that we are going to suffer for longer as well,” says Jonathan Barnard, head of publications at ZenithOptimedia in London.

“So certainly the advertising market is suffering from both the TV weakness and the strong downturn in the economy.”

Indeed, the Bank of England now confirms the UK is in a recession, its first since 1991, that it will be until well into next year, with the economy contracting by as much as 2 percent. In fact, the country is expected to be the hardest hit in Europe, according to the European Commission.

No surprise then that consumer confidence is at a record low and spending is stalling badly.

Last month's retail sales were down for the first time in three years, and a new study from consultants Deloitte says that consumers plan to spend about 7 percent less than last year on presents, food and socializing over the holidays.

This comes at a time when the UK ad economy was already suffering. Feeling the worst of it are newspapers, magazines and TV, says Barnard. In fact, ad spending on TV hasn’t grown since 2005.

Only part of it is the poor general economy. Another key force, as in the U.S., has been the shift of ad dollars to less-expensive media, such as the internet, with the effect of pushing down the prices across all media. The UK is hurting more in part because the internet has gained deeper penetration here than elsewhere in Europe.

“The vast inventory available on the internet has pushed down prices in traditional media,” says Barnard.

ZenithOptimedia is now forecasting the UK media economy to grow by 0.4 percent this year, but take out the internet and that figure falls to minus 5.1 percent. The internet is forecast to grow at 24 percent.

Next year, spending on TV is forecast to fall another 3 percent, newspapers 2.2 percent and magazines 2.3 percent.

Forecasters now think 2010 will be the year when growth resumes, which is about when the U.S ad economy is expected to revive.

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Heidi Dawley is a staff writer for Media Life.




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