When it comes to the media economy, bad news comes not in ones and twos but bunches, and the latest bad news came yesterday, though it was hardly a surprise.
Nielsen Monitor-Plus reports that 2007 ended all but flat in ad spending, up a modest 0.6 percent over 2006.
That follows a flush of reports that 2007 came in below what many expected and that 2008, while looking better because of election ad spending and the Summer Olympics, won't be particularly hot either.
This latest report from the tracker of ad spending reflects as much as anything the slowing of the U.S. economy, says Annie Touliatos, director of product development and marketing at Nielsen Monitor-Plus.
"The overall economy is having an influence in advertising," Touliatos tells Media Life. "I think we’re lucky the influence isn’t bigger, that there’s at least a little bit of growth. The Olympics and the elections should certainly help matters in 2008."
By its accounting, Nielsen reports that the internet was the fastest-growing medium, up 18.9 percent, with consumer magazines coming in at No. 2, up 7.6 percent, just ahead of outdoor, which rose 7.2 percent (see charts, below).
Newspapers had the worst year by far, with local papers down 7.5 percent in total ad revenue and national papers off slightly more, 7.7 percent.
Just a week ago, TNS Media Intelligence reported that 2007 ad spending finished up a bare 0.2 percent and that spending actually slowed in the fourth quarter, coming in at minus 0.1 percent.
The real issue is not 2007 but 2008 and how quickly the ad economy will revive.
Back in January, TNS had forecast a growth pace of 4.2 percent for this year, but these months later that may seem overly optimistic.
Just yesterday, ZenithOptimedia reduced its 2008 forecast for U.S. ad spending to 3.7 percent growth, down from the 4.1 percent it anticipated back in December, and it blames much of it on the credit crunch that's resulted from the subprime mortgage meltdown.
And just when that works itself out is the big unknown, but it's unlikely that the ad economy will bounce back until it does.
ZenithOptimedia is not all that optimistic. Yesterday it also downgraded its forecasts for 2009 and 2010 to 2.1 percent and 2.2 percent, down from the 3.0 percent for each it forecast in December.
|
U.S. ad spending in 2007 |
|
Media Category |
2006 vs. 2007
% Change |
|
Internet |
18.9% |
|
National Magazines |
7.6% |
|
Outdoor |
7.2% |
|
Nat'l Sunday Supplements |
4.9% |
|
National Cable TV |
2.2% |
|
Spanish-Language TV |
1.5% |
|
Network TV |
-1.5% |
|
Local Magazines |
-1.7% |
|
Spot Radio |
-2.0% |
|
Spot TV Markets 101-210 |
-2.6% |
|
Network Radio |
-3.9% |
|
B-to-B Magazines |
-4.0% |
|
Local Sunday Supplements |
-4.9% |
|
Spot TV Markets 1-100 |
-5.1% |
|
Local Newspaper |
-7.5% |
|
Nat'l Newspaper |
-7.7% |
|
Total Advertising Spending |
0.6 % |
|
Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus
-Syndicated TV and FSI Coupons were excluded due to methodology changes
-Newspaper reflects display ads only |