When the Audit Bureau of Circulations released second-half 2008 numbers last week, media buyers were expecting to see declines. But the sharpness of those declines, coming after a fourth quarter in which ad pages were off 17 percent, according to the Publishers Information Bureau, stung. Single-copy sales dipped 11 percent, according to the ABC, and more than half the nearly 800 consumer titles tracked showed a decline in total circulation. Now publishers are faced with the tough issue of whether to reduce their rate base, abandoning the often-expensive task of keeping their circulation up, or attempting to ride out the economic collapse without making adjustments, a strategy that media buyers worry could increase reliance on “junk” circulation like public-place distribution in such venues as doctors' offices and schools. Some magazines have already begun to cut. Last week Vibe chopped its rate base for the second time in less than a year, and the newsweeklies have all reduced theirs in the past two years, following a major reduction by TV Guide a few years back. Roberta Garfinkle, senior vice president and director for print strategy at TargetCast TCM, talks to Media Life about media buyers’ biggest concerns stemming from the latest ABC data.

 
What most stood out to you from the recent batch of ABC data?
 
I went through FAS FAX the other day and the biggest thing is half the magazines showed a decrease in circulation. That just absolutely floored me. I don’t ever remember a number like that.

There were 790 magazines listed, and out of those, 369 showed a negative percent change in combined total paid and verified circulation. Shocking.
 
And the second thing that stood out for me was the vast majority of publications are showing negative numbers in single copy sales.
 

What numbers are media buyers most concerned about?
 
I think we’re very concerned about verified numbers, and the issue there is whether or not publishers are using that circulation to make rate base. I mean, we’re concerned about all the numbers.

Newsstand is going down, and the fear is that public-place circulation will increase, so we’re really concerned about all the numbers.

Which categories are holding up best in terms of newsstand sales?
 
Every category is impacted by it because of the situation, in general, at newsstands. No category seems to be exempt.
 

Which categories look the most troubled?
 
You know, at this point, I’d say the celebrity tiles, which depend a great deal on newsstand circ.

With newsstand sales down, how are publishers ensuring they meet their rate base?
 
We don’t know yet. I think that’s part of the issue about whether or not they’ll push public place distribution to help rate base, but it’s just too soon to know.

We've seen notable cuts in rate base in the newsweekly category in the past few years. What's your opinion on these cuts, do they make the magazine a more targeted and attractive buy?
 
Well, there really is no newsweekly category anymore, there’s just two books. U.S. News is going monthly and to special reports, and then you’ve got Time and Newsweek. Time, their circulation was actually flat in December ‘08 versus ‘07, and oddly enough they’re one of the few – and I bet this has to do with the election – that had single-copy sales that were up.
 
Newsweek’s single copy sales were up too. But, again, I think that’s a function of the election, and Newsweek has already announced that it’s cutting its circulation virtually in half by the end of 2009.
 

What is media buyers' biggest concern about magazine circulation generally right now?
 
With magazines I think the issue is that every magazine is going to have to look at its circulation, what it costs to maintain that circulation, and decide whether or not they have to cut circulation to help their bottom lines.
 
I think you’ve already started to see that; Vibe did it, Newsweek is doing it, I can’t tell you all of them but it’s starting.

I think it’s going to be the rolling stone effect, that it’s going to build and build and build and as we get further into the year it will be more commonplace.

But that’s not a bad thing. I think they have to bite the bullet and do it.