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It had to be the worst year in magazines in some time, if not ever, and fourth-quarter 2009 was certainly harsh, but there are at least inklings of a better year to come for American magazine publishers--better meaning not quite as brutal.
Ad pages fell 25.6 percent in 2009 as compared to 2008, a truly awful performance, but in fourth quarter the pace of decline slowed some.
Pages were down 21.6 percent, according to Publishers Information Bureau. Part of that can be attributed to comparisons to a weaker year-earlier quarter, when the U.S. economy was in meltdown mode and advertisers were chopping spending.
Rate-card-reported ad revenue fell 18.1 percent for the full year, to $19,450,949,762, while fourth-quarter revenue dipped 12.4 percent, to $5,778,429,251.
But there's also reason to believe advertisers are beginning to spend again as the U.S. economy improves, and some of their ad dollars are going to magazines. Publishers report an influx of ad pages in the last months of the year and for the first months of this year.
Over the entire year of 2009, every top ad category, from toiletries to technology, saw huge declines in ad pages, all but one of the 12 in double digits.
But in fourth quarter the declines eased some, and one category, food and food products, actually saw pages rise by 9.8 percent. It's the No. 2 category in dollars.
Further, all-important automotive spending saw declines lessen over the final three months of the year, falling 21.9 percent versus 40.5 percent for the full year.
How much better will 2010 be?
Considerably, according to the most recent forecast from Magna's chief forecaster, Brian Wieser. He sees first-quarter magazine revenues declining by 12 percent then slowing improving from there, with total 2010 revenues coming in at minus 6 percent.
But there's certainly a ways to go, and how many magazines survive in the coming year is a big question
Of the 250-some titles tracked by PIB, only a dozen or so saw gains in ad pages in 2009, including several of the old Seven Sisters titles and fitness magazines, reflecting a trend of consumers cocooning through the economic downturn and advertisers reaching out to them in their homes.
Better Homes & Gardens was up 2.1 percent in ad pages, while Family Circle was up 6 percent and Ladies’ Home Journal showed gains of 3.1 percent. Fitness was up 9.1 percent and Muscle & Fitness was up 3.1 percent.
Other gainers: National Enquirer, 1.8 percent; OK!, 20.7 percent; The Week, 9.5 percent; and People Style Watch, 24.4 percent.
But there were dozens of losers, many showing double-digit declines.
Gourmet, which was recently folded, was off 49.3 percent. Kiplinger’s Personal Finance fell 34.1 percent, while BusinessWeek was off 33.8 percent.
