Look to 2009
for magazines to revive
It will take an easing of the credit and housing crises
By Toni Fitzgerald
Oct 21, 2008
Magazines have been hit hard in the first three quarters of the year, with ad pages falling 9.5 percent year to year, according to numbers issued last week by the Publishers Information Bureau.
The question now, after a third quarter in which pages were off an alarming 12.9 percent, is when will things start to turn around.
The answer: Not for at least several more months.
First media people think the credit and housing crises will need to be worked through, if not resolved, and the economy on its way to a rebound.
"You’ll see things start to turn around at the end of the second quarter next year,” says Peter Craig of Los Angeles-based magazine consultancy Bay Sherman & Craig, once the new president gets in office and new programs are put in place.
“A lot of money needs to be spent to create jobs, security and get the banking problems resolved. We’ll see a lot better numbers after the election, with the really significant improvements at the end of the second quarter once the housing market has stabilized and the credit crunch has gotten better.”
The immediate question is how fourth quarter will turn out.
Magazines won’t benefit from the temporary fourth-quarter jolt that political revenue will deliver for TV and radio, and if the trend seen in third quarter holds, the hurt could deepen significantly.
Over the three months between July and September, ad pages took one of the worst tumbles in memory, off nearly 13 percent. Of the nearly 250 titles tracked by PIB, 47 saw year-to-year ad page gains during the quarter.
Fortune Small Business saw the biggest year-to-year quarterly jump, up 42.7 percent from 79.84 to 113.92. OK! Weekly saw the second-biggest gain, up 39.3 percent from 156.58 to 218.05.
Third came Fast Company, up 30.5 percent from 98.78 to 128.89 pages.
Most of the top gainers were either relatively new publications, like OK! and Wondertime, up 25.9 percent in third quarter, that were building from small bases or smaller niche magazines like Ride BMX or Executive Travel Skyguide, which weren’t hurt by the overall economic downturn.
Meanwhile, the biggest decliner during third quarter was Hearst’s Quick & Simple, which closed in July. The failed women’s title was off 67 percent from last year.
Medizine’s Diabetes Focus had the second-biggest decrease, off 48.1 percent from 21 pages to 11. The Saturday Evening Post posted the third-biggest downturn, down 46.2 percent from 99.67 to 53.6.
Eleven publications saw ad pages fall 30 percent or more during third quarter.
All six Sunday magazines tracked by PIB saw declines, with Relish, the only publication up year to date, seeing the biggest quarterly decline, off 22.2 percent from 51.84 to 40.31.
Of the 23 categories of magazines tracked by Media Life, all showed ad page declines.
“When times are tough and they should be advertising, companies pull back,” Craig says. “It’s an easy pullback, and it’s a mistake.”
|
Automotive
Year to date |
|
Titles |
2008
$s |
2007 $s |
%
chnge |
'08
pages |
'07
pages |
%
chnge |
|
AUTOMOBILE MAGAZINE
|
51,225,140
|
58,426,470
|
-12.3
|
560.56
|
676.99
|
-17.2
|
|
AUTOWEEK
|
30,010,217
|
31,791,859
|
-5.6
|
869.63
|
936.26
|
-7.1
|
|
CAR AND DRIVER
|
145,420,761
|
157,329,859
|
-7.6
|
731.59
|
832.01
|
-12.1
|
|
HOT ROD
|
46,920,632
|
51,508,924
|
-8.9
|
469.90
|
551.59
|
-14.8
|
|
MOTOR TREND
|
119,737,346
|
134,507,991
|
-11.0
|
771.87
|
922.02
|
-16.3
|
|
ROAD & TRACK
|
91,016,756
|
95,539,930
|
-4.7
|
783.24
|
861.98
|
-9.1
|
|
TOTALS
|
484,330,852
|
529,105,033
|
-8.5
|
4,186.79
|
4,780.85
|
-12.4
|
|
Source: PIB |
|
Entertainment/Celebrity
Year to date |
|
Titles |
2008
$s |
2007 $s |
%
chnge |
'08
pages |
'07
pages |
%
chnge |
|
ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY
|
142,703,090
|
168,442,999
|
-15.3
|
904.01
|
1,118.08
|
-19.1
|
|
IN TOUCH WEEKLY
|
108,377,853
|
100,624,905
|
7.7
|
871.87
|
773.88
|
12.7
|
|
LIFE & STYLE WEEKLY
|
26,460,122
|
33,004,388
|
-19.8
|
416.04
|
478.84
|
-13.1
|
|
OK WEEKLY
|
47,755,400
|
32,466,998
|
47.1
|
586.21
|
436.15
|
34.4
|
|
PEOPLE
|
669,969,559
|
684,519,890
|
-2.1
|
2,551.53
|
2,720.76
|
-6.2
|
|
STAR
|
131,811,328
|
147,353,073
|
-10.5
|
914.26
|
935.49
|
-2.3
|
|
TV GUIDE
|
154,793,878
|
151,116,328
|
2.4
|
755.63
|
812.27
|
-7.0
|
|
US WEEKLY
|
236,212,573
|
225,999,484
|
4.5
|
1,373.02
|
1,419.25
|
-3.3
|
|
TOTALS
|
1,518,083,803
|
1,543,528,065
|
-1.6
|
8,372.57
|
8,694.72
|
-3.7
|
|
Source: PIB |
|
Music
Year to date |
|
Titles |
2008
$s |
2007 $s |
%
chnge |
'08
pages |
'07
pages |
%
chnge |
|
BLENDER
|
37,407,971
|
43,237,399
|
-13.5
|
378.45
|
501.66
|
-24.6
|
|
ROLLING STONE
|
125,205,510
|
140,888,731
|
-11.1
|
779.76
|
953.99
|
-18.3
|
|
SPIN
|
26,815,290
|
23,804,313
|
12.6
|
491.59
|
455.54
|
7.9
|
|
VIBE
|
56,703,353
|
65,941,836
|
-14.0
|
578.99
|
701.71
|
-17.5
|
|
TOTALS
|
246,132,124
|
273,872,279
|
-10.1
|
2,228.79
|
2,612.9
|
-14.7
|
|
Source: PIB |
|
Teen magazines
Year to date |
|
Titles |
2008
$s |
2007 $s |
%
chnge |
'08
pages |
'07
pages |
%
chnge |
|
COSMOGIRL
|
51,049,844
|
56,949,635
|
-10.4
|
460.07
|
535.29
|
-14.1
|
|
J-14
|
5,544,985
|
5,845,891
|
-5.1
|
180.37
|
204.51
|
-11.8
|
|
SEVENTEEN
|
74,387,546
|
77,393,149
|
-3.9
|
608.49
|
672.19
|
-9.5
|
|
TEEN VOGUE
|
80,965,604
|
77,428,245
|
4.6
|
814.73
|
856.09
|
-4.8
|
|
TOTALS
|
211,947,979
|
217,616,920
|
-2.6
|
2,063.66
|
2,268.08
|
-9.0
|
|
Source: PIB |
|
Women's service/beauty
Year to date |
|
Titles |
2008
$s |
2007 $s |
%
chnge |
'08
pages |
'07
pages |
%
chnge |
|
ALLURE
|
140,555,123
|
128,642,265
|
9.3
|
1,187.08
|
1,228.45
|
-3.4
|
|
COSMOPOLITAN
|
278,632,612
|
303,776,641
|
-8.3
|
1,182.82
|
1,360.61
|
-13.1
|
|
GLAMOUR
|
236,874,832
|
253,845,241
|
-6.7
|
1,302.37
|
1,447.59
|
-10.0
|
|
MARIE CLAIRE
|
104,502,375
|
102,778,812
|
1.7
|
937.87
|
973.86
|
-3.7
|
|
TOTALS
|
760,564,942
|
789,042,959
|
-3.6
|
4,610.14
|
5,010.51
|
-8.0
|
|
Source: PIB |
|
Fashion
Year to date |
|
Titles |
2008
$s |
2007 $s |
%
chnge |
'08
pages |
'07
pages |
%
chnge |
|
ELLE
|
226,266,780
|
202,455,741
|
11.8
|
1,817.92
|
1,725.30
|
5.4
|
|
HARPER'S BAZAAR
|
151,757,494
|
135,437,346
|
12.0
|
1,411.00
|
1,316.21
|
7.2
|
|
LUCKY
|
124,330,686
|
128,523,331
|
-3.3
|
1,184.38
|
1,290.12
|
-8.2
|
|
TOWN & COUNTRY
|
106,342,959
|
88,310,091
|
20.4
|
1,067.54
|
1,091.32
|
-2.2
|
|
VOGUE
|
301,067,656
|
300,644,756
|
0.1
|
2,204.44
|
2,293.19
|
-3.9
|
|
W
|
120,338,752
|
122,976,501
|
-2.1
|
1,430.56
|
1,543.09
|
-7.3
|
|
TOTALS
|
1,030,104,327
|
978,347,766
|
5.3
|
9,115.84
|
9,259.23
|
-1.6
|
|
Source: PIB |
|
Travel
Year to date |
|
Titles |
2008
$s |
2007 $s |
%
chnge |
'08
pages |
'07
pages |
%
chnge |
|
ARTHUR FROMMERS BDGT TRVL
|
23,733,510
|
22,365,989
|
6.1
|
474.76
|
523.03
|
-9.2
|
|
CONDE NAST TRAVELER
|
128,923,138
|
125,252,825
|
2.9
|
1,187.97
|
1,229.76
|
-3.4
|
|
DEPARTURES
|
53,232,229
|
51,559,406
|
3.2
|
659.97
|
698.96
|
-5.6
|
|
ENDLESS VACATION
|
10,493,050
|
10,642,232
|
-1.4
|
132.95
|
135.55
|
-1.9
|
|
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC TRVLR
|
29,144,346
|
26,329,135
|
10.7
|
412.08
|
391.88
|
5.2
|
|
TRAVEL+ LEISURE
|
106,426,039
|
108,776,791
|
-2.2
|
1,046.10
|
1,100.93
|
-5.0
|
|
TOTALS
|
351,952,312
|
344,926,378
|
2.0
|
3,913.83
|
4,080.11
|
-4.1
|
|
Source: PIB |
|
General Interest & Lifestyle
Year to date |
|
Titles |
2008
$s |
2007 $s |
%
chnge |
'08
pages |
'07
pages |
%
chnge |
|
AARP-THE MAGAZINE
|
125,967,405
|
145,295,663
|
-13.3
|
222.47
|
271.99
|
-18.2
|
|
ATLANTIC
MONTHLY THE
|
21,704,738
|
22,037,669
|
-1.5
|
354.79
|
422.52
|
-16.0
|
|
GUIDEPOSTS
|
30,763,844
|
30,646,309
|
0.4
|
377.58
|
387.60
|
-2.6
|
|
NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
|
71,303,289
|
69,032,813
|
3.3
|
319.79
|
318.21
|
0.5
|
|
NEW YORK
MAGAZINE
|
153,419,701
|
149,746,010
|
2.5
|
2,199.35
|
2,236.39
|
-1.7
|
|
NEW YORKER
|
122,690,970
|
146,649,166
|
-16.3
|
1,015.11
|
1,306.04
|
-22.3
|
|
READER'S DIGEST
|
184,569,534
|
238,738,394
|
-22.7
|
669.02
|
763.33
|
-12.4
|
|
SMITHSONIAN
|
51,547,954
|
51,893,712
|
-0.7
|
377.43
|
395.62
|
-4.6
|
|
SOUTHERN LIVING
|
143,695,778
|
154,756,783
|
-7.1
|
875.08
|
986.87
|
-11.3
|
|
SUNSET
|
56,756,757
|
70,060,095
|
-19.0
|
567.91
|
742.43
|
-23.5
|
|
TEXAS
MONTHLY
|
51,869,019
|
59,250,405
|
-12.5
|
1,353.08
|
1,565.95
|
-13.6
|
|
VANITY FAIR
|
187,969,921
|
201,192,475
|
-6.6
|
1,297.09
|
1,470.48
|
-11.8
|
|
TOTALS
|
1,202,258,910
|
1,339,299,494
|
-10.2
|
9,628.7
|
10,867.43
|
-11.4
|
|
Source: PIB |
|
Parenting
Year to date |
|
Titles |
2008
$s |
2007 $s |
%
chnge |
'08
pages |
'07
pages |
%
chnge |
|
AMERICAN BABY
|
79,096,795
|
79,830,327
|
-0.9
|
434.68
|
474.23
|
-8.3
|
|
BABY TALK
|
47,901,767
|
47,366,790
|
1.1
|
327.32
|
338.76
|
-3.4
|
|
CHILD
|
0
|
28,923,235
|
-
|
0.00
|
404.64
|
-
|
|
COOKIE
|
37,049,867
|
22,743,886
|
62.9
|
490.49
|
428.33
|
14.5
|
|
FAMILY FUN
|
75,434,521
|
70,545,697
|
6.9
|
493.69
|
487.66
|
1.2
|
|
PARENTING
|
99,831,195
|
105,279,132
|
-5.2
|
684.87
|
714.38
|
-4.1
|
|
PARENTS
|
162,611,293
|
152,732,308
|
6.5
|
1,039.02
|
1,031.75
|
0.7
|
|
WONDERTIME
|
15,233,312
|
10,136,830
|
50.3
|
345.74
|
303.15
|
14.0
|
|
TOTALS
|
517,158,750
|
517,558,205
|
-0.1
|
3,815.81
|
4,182.9
|
-8.8
|
|
Source: PIB |
|
Personal finance
Year to date |
|
Titles |
2008
$s |
2007 $s |
%
chnge |
'08
pages |
'07
pages |
%
chnge |
|
BARRONS |
45,066,615
|
43,969,792
|
2.5
|
1,060.68
|
1,070.08
|
-0.9
|
|
KIPLINGERS PERSNL FINANCE |
22,809,397
|
25,378,046
|
-10.1
|
308.72
|
357.20
|
-13.6
|
|
MONEY |
102,684,723
|
100,452,616
|
2.2
|
540.04
|
534.09
|
1.1
|
|
SMARTMONEY |
30,186,874
|
39,098,523
|
-22.8
|
358.98
|
483.44
|
-25.7
|
|
TOTALS |
200,747,609
|
208,898,977
|
-3.9
|
2,268.42
|
2,444.81
|
-7.2
|
|
Source: PIB |
|
Newsweeklies
Year to date |
|
Titles |
2008
$s |
2007 $s |
%
chnge |
'08
pages |
'07
pages |
%
chnge |
|
ECONOMIST |
93,483,849
|
73,766,123
|
26.7
|
1,769.13
|
1,670.71
|
5.9
|
|
NEWSWEEK |
237,578,612
|
315,464,901
|
-24.7
|
1,034.68
|
1,244.06
|
-16.8
|
|
THE WEEK |
19,760,226
|
18,452,478
|
7.1
|
381.62
|
400.03
|
-4.6
|
|
TIME |
313,886,163
|
366,097,974
|
-14.3
|
1,179.46
|
1,459.74
|
-19.2
|
|
U.S.
NEWS |
138,200,378
|
194,615,435
|
-29.0
|
848.65
|
1,181.89
|
-28.2
|
|
TOTALS |
802,909,228
|
968,396,911
|
-17.1
|
5,213.54
|
5,956.43
|
-12.5
|
|
Source: PIB |
|
Women's Service
Year to date |
|
Titles |
2008
$s |
2007 $s |
%
chnge |
'08
pages |
'07
pages |
%
chnge |
|
BETTER HOMES & GARDENS
|
547,346,531
|
610,905,583
|
-10.4
|
1,226.29
|
1,463.66
|
-16.2
|
|
FAMILY CIRCLE
|
254,590,657
|
280,426,576
|
-9.2
|
1,059.21
|
1,252.59
|
-15.4
|
|
FIRST FOR WOMEN
|
33,070,597
|
30,678,491
|
7.8
|
484.03
|
477.51
|
1.4
|
|
GOOD HOUSEKEEPING
|
392,544,163
|
368,797,994
|
6.4
|
1,183.78
|
1,177.34
|
0.5
|
|
LADIES' HOME JOURNAL
|
220,113,560
|
256,431,937
|
-14.2
|
898.33
|
1,111.35
|
-19.2
|
|
MARTHA
STEWART LIVING
|
136,093,783
|
136,359,126
|
-0.2
|
917.26
|
990.67
|
-7.4
|
|
MORE
|
82,346,521
|
98,008,649
|
-16.0
|
647.85
|
888.24
|
-27.1
|
|
REAL SIMPLE
|
192,935,749
|
207,751,796
|
-7.1
|
1,253.58
|
1,422.13
|
-11.9
|
|
REDBOOK
|
150,442,526
|
160,026,092
|
-6.0
|
1,058.35
|
1,162.28
|
-8.9
|
|
WOMAN'S DAY
|
281,788,728
|
283,294,291
|
-0.5
|
1,135.79
|
1,201.60
|
-5.5
|
|
WOMANS WORLD
|
23,708,020
|
21,656,990
|
9.5
|
269.94
|
271.96
|
-0.7
|
|
WOMEN'S HEALTH
|
58,709,640
|
33,955,632
|
72.9
|
536.95
|
454.78
|
18.1
|
|
WORKING MOTHER
|
22,957,038
|
19,032,921
|
20.6
|
344.95
|
301.50
|
14.4
|
|
TOTALS
|
2,396,647,513
|
2,507,326,078
|
-4.4
|
11,016.31
|
12,175.61
|
-9.5
|
|
Source: PIB |
|
Fan Sports
Year to date |
|
Titles |
2008
$s |
2007 $s |
%
chnge |
|
