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are just booming With ad spending surging, despite the global downturn Oct 2, 2008 The travel magazines capture an arresting picture: A bright red sun shining over the Ganges as people wade in from its banks, their dark bodies swaddled in the barest clothing. And that picture still captures much of India, which remains a very rural country. And of course all this comes amid a major media slowdown worldwide as the global economy suffers the heaves of the credit crisis and other woes. Ad forecasts for the U.S. and other developed media markets for 2008 and 2009 make for grim reading. "There are several very strong organic drivers in this market, which give it very good insulation from the wider global economy,” says Adam Smith, futures director at GroupM in London. One is the growing wealth of the country. By 2025, India is expected to have a bigger upper middle class than China. What’s more, demographically it will be the youngest of the three big industrializing countries by a long way. Currently it has a median age of 25, which is expected to rise to 31 by 2027. That compares to 34, rising to 40 for China, and 38, rising to 43 for Russia. The second key driver is the vibrancy of the country’s traditional media, says Smith. The country has been relaxing restrictions that limit the ownership positions that foreign countries can have in media. Magazines that aren’t news titles can now be 100 percent foreign owned. The third driver is that advertisers are broadening their target audience, moving away from the focus on the housewife as the chief advertising target. But there is a downside. While the number of local editions of international magazine titles is increasing rapidly, the amount of advertising money being spent isn’t. As such the magazine market isn’t growing as quickly as some other sectors in the market. GroupM forecasts 12 percent growth for the magazine sector in 2008, to hit $175.9 million, and about 5 percent growth in 2009. “It is chockablock with new launches, but advertising money isn’t rising,” says Smith. That compares to the newspaper category, which GroupM forecasts will grow 18 percent in 2008 to $2.36 billion and another 18 percent in 2009. That's already led to a flood of foreign newspapers planting new roots in India.
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