To call the last month a rocky one for magazines would be understating it. First came word from the Publishers Information Bureau that ad pages had declined nearly 13 percent during third quarter, the worst in recent memory, with year-to-date declines of 9.5 percent. Then came a rash of closings, including Radar, 02138 and Cosmogirl, followed by the announcement of hundreds of layoffs at Time Inc., Rodale and Condé Nast, among others. The most recent news came earlier this week, when word leaked that U.S. News & World Report, long considered the most vulnerable of the three major newsweeklies, was moving to monthly publication while pushing many of its resources to the web. Now there’s continued speculation over which magazines will be the next to go in this rough economic climate. The Grim Reaper, the anonymous and extremely knowledgeable person behind MagazineDeathPool.com, has been tracking all of these developments on his web site for several years with snarky headlines like yesterday’s “U.S. News & World Report too scared to kill itself.” The Reaper talks to Media Life about which magazine is likely to go next, which categories are most endangered, and why the layoffs may actually be good for the industry.

 
Which magazine death over the past month has been the most surprising?
 
None. At this stage of the game, there aren't that many surprising magazines shutdowns.

Every one that has shut down didn't shock anybody because of their dubious status. Without rock-solid fundamentals to withstand a terrible economy, coupled with the migration of consumers getting news and entertainment from the web, there is a lot of toast out there.
 

What magazines do you consider most endangered right now and why?
 
Doubledown Media [publisher of Trader Monthly and Dealmaker]. Highly susceptible to Wall Street's downfall, simply by the very nature of who their magazine is directed at and who their advertisers are -- stock traders. That world is dead.
 
SmartMoney and Kiplinger's. These two personal finance magazines are getting hit pretty hard.

I find it highly ironic because in this economy, people need this guidance more than ever, but many mutual fund advertisers get spineless any time there are Wall Street gyrations. It's really a toss up between the two.

Regarding Smart Money, does Murdoch still see value in investing in magazines now that he owns Dow Jones? Yet they have a very strong digital division that licenses its applications.

On the other hand, Kiplinger's is No. 3 in the category with a senior citizen audience and a poor digital strategy.
 
Blender. Kent Brownridge got away with murder in his one year at Alpha Media. Exhibit A: Blender, by unnecessarily investing a lot of money in increasing its rate base, replaced the editor in chief and publisher for no reason except for the sake of changing them.

The new publisher had a longtime Reader's Digest career and, from what I hear, his music knowledge shows it. Now they are on the ropes. The people running OK! may be thinking twice about hiring Brownridge to head their U.S. company.
 
Sound and Vision. Nobody is forking over money for these kinds of high-end stereo systems these days.
 
Boating/Yachting/Motorboating, etc. Who has money for these either?
 
U.S. News & World Report. This whole category is going down the tubes, and this magazine is primed to be the first to go. Only read in dentists' offices, as far as I can see.
 
Nickelodeon. An outdated concept for a cable TV network.
 
Entertainment Weekly. This should be a web site, maybe even merged with People. I cannot see this lasting in the long run.
 
Elegant Bride is redundant. Why does Condé Nast need three bridal magazines?
 
Life & Style. Bauer has to be looking at this one very hard, lagging behind everybody else.
 

What magazines are in the best shape to ride out the ad page declines?
 
If you are the No. 1 magazine in a large category, your odds are good to survive. If you are No. 2, things are somewhat shaky depending on how bad your ad and circulation swoons are. If you are third, you should be justifiably nervous.
 

What magazine category will suffer the most during this economic downturn?
 
There are five that I see in the most trouble: shelter, news, entertainment, personal finance, business.
 

In recent days, a number of publishers, from Time Inc. to Rodale, have announced serious staff cuts. What do you make of these cuts, and what does it say about the health of the magazine industry generally?
 
Layoffs don't mean a magazine is closing. It means that they are doing what they can to survive because headcount is a large expense.

The publishing industry is not used to many rounds of layoffs. If they look around to see other industries such as automobiles, airlines, manufacturing, and others, they would see that layoffs have always been a fact of life. 

Do you think a lot of these cuts are so-called trimming of the fat, or will we see many of these positions reopened when the economic crunch lessens?
 
I read last week that Portfolio had a staff of 140 people. I nearly fell off my rocker when I read that.

Perhaps the British were correct when they said that American magazines were overstaffed. Many small magazines have people taking multiple roles, so if you think about it, we may be looking at a magazine industry “correction.”
 
I do not think many of these positions will be re-opened because there will be less magazines in existence and the industry will have learned that in order to make money and survive, it has to hire people who wear many hats. It's starting to happen now, as reporters and editors are expected to write for both the magazine and the web site.