There's been talk of a shakeout in celebrity magazines ever since the field became so crowded several years ago.
Yet there's been no shakeout to date, and a surprisingly large share of media people continue to see a solid future for print titles even with the rise of web sites like TMZ.com that regularly scoop them on stories.
The future of celebrity gossip is clearly online, media planners and buyers believe, but most do not expect print titles to disappear, though obviously some will do better than others.
That's the outcome of a Media Life survey last week following the news that Janice Min was leaving as editor of Us Weekly and is expected at some point to end up editing an online publication.
Asked whether most celebrity and entertainment magazines will still exist in their current print form in five years, more than half thought so, with 54 percent agreeing with this statement: "Yes. There's still a huge appetite for these publications, and they're learning how to use the web to their advantage."
The remaining 46 percent thought not, agreeing with this statement: " No. Like the newsweeklies, we will see them thoroughly change their approach, and some will become online-only."
No surprise, of the existing print titles, People was seen to have the brightest future in print. It's not a surprise because it's the biggest and the oldest and generally ranked by media people as the strongest editorially.
Just under 64 percent ranked People as No. 1 in that regard, and no one else came even close. Only Entertainment Weekly crept into the double digits at 12 percent. Star was next at under 10 percent.
Ok! and Us tied for third at just over 5 percent.
Media people also believe People has the strongest future online as well, though not by such a wide margin.
Asked which entertainment magazine had the brightest future online, 43 percent chose People. Next came Entertainment Weekly at 18 percent, then Us at 16 percent and Star at 10 percent.
Which titles have the bleakest futures in print? There are three close contenders, in the minds of media people: Life & Style and OK! tied for No. 1 at 29.5 percent, and right behind, at just over 27 percent, was TV Guide. In Touch was fourth at just over 6 percent.
And what will be the one thing that separates winners and losers in the race for survival in print and online?
Answer: making them work well together.
The largest share of respondents, 58 percent, agreed with this statement: "A smart internet strategy that allows the print title and the web site to play off each other to the benefit of both."
Next, at 47 percent, came: "Scoops. Titles that get the breaks on stories will survive and those that don't will lose. Readers will decide."
And just behind, at 45 percent: came: "Editorial quality is No. 1. In these hard times, the less-well-done titles are at risk of losing readers, and advertisers will follow."
Two things would appear to matter a lot less, and one was ad sales savvy, at 25 percent, and deep pockets, at 16 percent.
The biggest online-only threat to print-web hybrids is TMZ, and by a wide margin.
Asked which web site provides the biggest challenge to print magazines and their sites, 66 percent chose TMZ.
Perez Hilton came in No. 2 at 18 percent.
Lastly, Media Life wanted to know how planners and buyers read the departure of Min from Us. We asked, tell us what it says about the future for celeb/entertainment titles, if anything?
The answer, nothing and everything, depending on who's talking. Opinions were all over the lot. Here are a few.
"She was probably getting pushed out."
"US Weekly is heading for a fall. Only People will survive by staying true to its credible roots."
"Nothing ... she wanted too much money."
"Celeb/entertainment titles will be challenged. With people out of work and serious issues like healthcare in the forefront, celebrities appear increasingly shallow and peripheral."
"NOTHING. Her challenge was the newsstand--declining sales make it hard to negotiate an increased compensation package."
"It tells us that she accomplished her goals there and was ready to move on."
"That Jann [Wenner] is cheap and she is hard-headed."
"Nothing. It is all about Jann and Janice blowing up at each other. A battle of wills."
"Welcome to Shake-out city--population dwindling."