A different take on
the state of magazines
A well-regarded buyer says we need to look ahead
By Diego Vasquez
Apr 14, 2010
As soon as the Publishers Information Bureau numbers come out each quarter, the buzz begins: How much were ad pages off this time? It was the same earlier this week, when first-quarter numbers were released, and the answer was not nearly as much as the last few quarters, with first quarter off just 9.4 percent, the first time in more than a year that did not see a double-digit percentage decline. Still, perhaps it's time to start looking at different gauges to judge the health of the magazine industry. That's the argument of media veteran Roberta Garfinkle, senior vice president and director of print strategy at TargetCast tcm. Print advertising levels are clearly not returning to 2008 levels, but e-readers are poised to make a big impact on the magazine industry. Thus the new way to evaluate the state of magazines may be to look at growth in digital apps, advertising and readership, and the swiftness with which the industry is pulling together to address new challenges. Garfinkle talks to Media Life about the most recent PIB numbers, what magazine categories have held up best and worst during the recession, and why everyone should be reevaluating what magazine success really means.
What's the most interesting thing about this latest round of PIB numbers?
I think the biggest overarching issue in this is it’s neither a glass-half-full nor a glass-half-empty--it’s a new glass. Everybody needs to get over it. We’re not going back to 2008. It’s a new era in the business and we need to start in the industry looking forward instead of constantly looking back.
“Was last year better? Will this year be worse?” Stop it is my advice to everybody.
You sort of anticipated this next question. Obviously the industry is seeing declines on top of what was a terrible first quarter 2009, but the declines are not nearly as bad as last year. Do you see this as glass half full, half empty, or neither one?
I think everything is going to change so much going forward. The e-readers will change the game, which is another reason we need to stop dwelling on the past and just look forward.
Several ad categories, including auto, toiletries and financial/real estate, saw increases. What spurred those increases and do you think we'll see them recover to 2008 levels any time in the next few years?
I think the financial situation has eased up a bit.
There was this whole thing about conspicuous consumption for awhile, and now some people are starting to spend again.
It doesn’t surprise me that categories like auto and real estate saw increases, particularly with the deals the automakers are offering--they’re practically paying people to buy a car.
What other ad categories are on their way up? Which ones will continue to lag?
I have no basis on this other than gut instinct, but I would think that travel would start to come back a bit.
Finance will come up a little bit as people have more discretionary income and can start putting money away.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we started to see some increase in fashion. And pharma always does well; the more headaches we have, the more need for pharmaceutical advertising
But honestly I don’t know which will lag, it’s all kind of a crap shoot for me.
What types of magazines (editorial focus wise) have held up best during this recession? Why?
I think the newsweeklies had some problems, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we started to see the number coming up with things like the iPad, and iPhone applications. Of all the criticisms that the category is irrelevant because people need the news on the go, that’s what these applications do.
I think that 2010 will be a tough year and you’ll see changes in the business.
More titles will go out of business, although I won’t predict which. People will be cutting circulation, but the opportunity to get your enhanced magazine digitally is going to make a big difference.
Which, based on the latest numbers, continue to suffer and why?
I think the entertainment category is by far and away not out of the woods yet. Any category with a large number of titles, and I don’t know how many that is, will start to see falloff.
Print advertisers may start doing a bit more with digital versions, maybe taking some money away from print versions, and that’s got to play out for a while yet. It really all depends.
It really comes down to how soon will the industry be able to do any measurement with digital versions? They’ll have to get together and come up with some sort of metric.
Last week I mentioned [to some colleagues] the fact that there was criticism around if you wanted to buy a copy of a magazine at the Apple store, they charge you the newsstand price. I think one of the concerns for publishers is whoever is buying from the Apple store, they don’t have access to that data [who the people are].
Once you start charging for advertising and you want to say this magazine will reach men 25-34 who drive imported cars, you’ll need to know that, and the only way we’ll know is if someone’s monitoring it.
What types of deals have publishers been pushing to lure in advertisers during this recession?
In general it’s deep discounts. I think it’s trying to do more for less and coming up with better programs. But it’s still mainly just discounting.
What do you think about the big multi-publisher campaign that launched recently heralding the power of magazines? Is it a smart idea? Will it really have any effect?
I think the publishers should be commended for the fact that you have multiple companies working together to promote their industry and ultimately their titles.
But I honestly don’t know how this will work.
I think it’s commendable that they’re working together instead of each company doing their own thing. It’s very helpful for the industry that they’re trying to find a way to work together and promote magazines, not just their titles.
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