Forecast: Online $
will jump 20 percent
Other shorts: Analyst: Whew, last season really stunk
By Louisa Ada Seltzer
Jun 9, 2011
Forecast: Online $ will jump 20 percent this year
Last year was a big year for online advertising, but 2011 will be even bigger. U.S. online ad spending will grow 20.2 percent to $31.3 billion this year, according to the latest forecast from eMarketer, a year after rising 14.9 percent to $26.0 billion. And the medium is expected to grow for the foreseeable future. According to eMarketer ad spending will rise 17.6 percent next year, then 12.0 percent in 2013, 10.4 percent in 2014 and 8.8 percent in 2015, when spending will reach $49.5 billion. Principal analyst David Hallerman says that the internet has become as fundamental as TV to advertisers, and that a couple different factors will play into the medium's expected growth. "As consumers continue to increase their time spent online and as the resurgent economy continues to bolster ad budgets, we’re going to continue to see an influx of dollars toward the internet," Hallerman said in a release. According to the forecast internet ad spending will account for 28 percent of total U.S. major media ad spending in 2015.
Analyst: Whew, last season really stunk
The general rule of thumb is that one-third of new shows get picked up for a second season. Last season it was well below that. A new report from Nomura analyst Michael Nathanson, released yesterday, finds that a mere 23 percent of last fall's scripted shows made it to season two, the worst percentage in the past five years. Five shows launched last fall are returning for another season, three of them on CBS. Fox's "Raising Hope" and CW's "Nikita" are the other two. ABC and NBC had no scripted premieres last fall that survived, though they did combine for three of the four midseason pickups. Though hit shows these days have lower ratings than a few years ago, their value has actually risen because they are so much rarer. "The value of shows that are now deemed 'hits' are rising despite their smaller ratings," Nathanson says, noting that the dollars per average rating point for two recent comedies sold into syndication, "Modern Family" and "The Big Bang Theory," are "double to more than triple the comparisons of the comedies sold five years ago."
Study: Quality local reporting is suffering
The deep cuts at radio and TV stations and especially newspapers during the recent recession has had a profound impact on local reporting. A new study commissioned by the Federal Communications Commission, being released today, finds that there's a serious shortage of "local, professional, accountability reporting." Interestingly, the recent boom in hyperlocal news sites such as Patch.com has done little to stem this decline. The report, written by former Newsweek reporter Steven Waldman, says the dearth of reliable local reporting means less accountability for state and local government, whose decisions and declarations are often going unchallenged. Waldman offers some suggestions for fixing the problem, including directing government ad spending toward local rather than national media to help their bottom line and boost hiring, and changing journalism school curriculum to focus on the sort of reporting done at the local level.
UFC eyeing stake in Comcast's G4
Two years ago, the WWE floated the idea of a WWE network. Vince McMahon saw the addition of a cable channel as the natural next step for his sports and entertainment franchise, which has shows on USA Network and Syfy. But the idea remained just that, an idea, and now it looks like another extreme sports franchise could beat the WWE to cable. The Ultimate Fighting Championship is in talks with G4, Comcast's gaming- and technology-focused network, to acquire a controlling interest in the channel. The negotiations come after the UFC's CEO said last year that the sometimes-controversial league planned to launch its own network in the next few years. It may have figured that getting a piece of an already-existing one would be easier. G4 is targeted at men 18-34, the same audience that watches UFC, but it is one of the lower-rated networks on cable. UFC may be hoping that, in addition to the G4 presence, it will gain a presence on NBC, which is also owned by Comcast. The talks were first reported by the Wall Street Journal.
Minority kids consume more media, study says
Anyone who has been around kids can tell you they spend a lot of time consuming media, and it seems minority kids are doing so at a much higher rate. Minority youth (Black, Hispanic and Asians age 8-18) consume an average of four and a half more hours of media per day than white youths, according to a study from the Center on Media and Human Development at Northwestern University's School of Communication. And that extra media use comes from a variety of sources: TV (a difference of one to two hours per day between white and minority youth), music (about an hour a day difference), computers (up to an hour and a half a day difference) and video games (30 to 40 minutes' difference). But when it comes to reading print--yes, kids still read--the differences are minimal. Across all groups young people read for pleasure an average of 30 to 40 minutes per day. For the full 24-page report, click here: http://web5.soc.northwestern.edu/cmhd/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/SOCconfReportSingleFinal-1.pdf.
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