BIA/Kelsey ups
outlook for radio spending
Other shorts: Prediction: Print will be obsolete by 2022
By Louisa Ada Seltzer
Aug 26, 2010
BIA/Kelsey ups outlook for radio spending
Radio has had a strong first half of the year, and that has prompted one forecaster to up its expectations for 2010. Over-the-air revenue will hit $13.93 billion in 2010, according to the latest forecast from BIA/Kelsey, a 4.4 percent gain from 2009. That's up slightly from the $13.8 million BIA/Kelsey predicted for full-year 2010 back in May. This comes just days after the Radio Advertising Bureau reported that on- and off-air first-half radio ad spending was $8.2 billion, up 6 percent from the first half of 2009. Adding in $459.3 million in expected revenue from digital and online sources, BIA/Kelsey sees total radio revenues hitting $14.4 billion this year, with growth going forward. In 2011 the firm puts overall radio revenue at $14.8, billion, with $15.3 billion in 2012, $15.9 billion in 2013 and $16.6 billion in 2014.
Prediction: Print papers will be obsolete by 2022
There's been much talk over recent years of the future of newspapers and their continued relevance five, 10 or 15 years down the line. At least one futurist believes that future is pretty bleak, at least in Australia but presumably in the rest of the world as well. Today "Living Networks" author Ross Dawson gives the keynote at the Newspaper Publishers Association Future Forum in Sydney, and his talk will focus on this prediction: Aussie newspapers will be completely irrelevant by 2022, at least in their current form. Publishers will have to transform themselves into multimedia or e-media companies to stay afloat, partly because digital newsreaders will be so cheap ($10 or less) that we can all afford to have them. Dawson, in a preview on his web page, predicts that successors of the iPad will become Aussies' primary news interfaces, and they'll often be given away as part of a promotion. And citizen journalism isn't going anywhere: Dawson thinks journalism will be increasingly "crowdsourced," or produced by legions of amateurs rather than pricy professionals.
Study: Web TV is up but not replacing cable
There's a growing fear among cable operators that their subscribers, especially younger ones, will cut the cord with so many TV shows available for free on the internet. But there's evidence that it's not happening yet. Just 3 percent of 18-34-year-olds have canceled their cable service over the past year, according to a survey from Altman Vilandrie & Company and Peanut Labs, though a quarter "have seriously considered dropping my subscription TV service because internet video services meet most of my needs." The survey also found what most already thought to be true, that younger viewers are more likely to watch TV shows online. According to the survey, 16 percent of 18-34s watch full TV broadcast episodes online daily, compared to just 6 percent of those 35 and older. Overall, 10 percent of respondents said they watch full TV episodes online daily, double the 5 percent who said the same thing in 2009. Conversely, 42 percent of 18-34s watch TV shows daily during their normal broadcast time, versus 60 percent of those 35 and older.
TiVo: Will promo viewers become program viewers?
TiVo is adding yet more capabilities to its Stop||Watch™ ratings service. Yesterday the Alviso, Calif., company said that it will now be able to determine what percentage of TiVo users exposed to a program promo actually watched the show in a service narrowly geared toward advertisers, brands and networks. The idea is to provide more dynamic insight into consumer behavior than TiVo has offered before, providing a link between cause and effect rather than just looking at the final numbers for the TV show. The data will be based on Power||Watch ratings, which includes a voluntary panel of 35,000 TiVo subscribers. TiVo describes the service thusly: "With this ability programmers could find that an audience that watches just one promo for a particular show is 20% more likely to view their program than those who see none, while viewers who saw three promos were 40% more likely to follow through and watch the promoted program."
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