It’s looking more and more like Jay Leno is bound for ABC when his contract with NBC is up next year. He joked about it on "The Tonight Show" last week, and days later ABC Entertainment president Steve McPherson acknowledged that the network would love to have him.
It would certainly seem a smart move for ABC, whose "Nightline" news show has long trailed "Tonight" and CBS’s "Late Show with David Letterman."
One scenario, and one quite simple to imagine, would have Leno’s 4.8 million total viewers following him to ABC and boosting his new show to No. 1.
But don't bet on it.
If he does move to ABC, Leno will certainly attract loads of viewers, but there's no way to assume he'll jump to No. 1 right off, if ever.
There are a number of factors working against that scenario, and one is his replacement, Conan O’Brien, who takes over next year.
On ABC, Leno would be competing directly against him, so it would be a three-way race: Leno, O'Brien and Letterman.
But there's another factor to consider: an extended cooling off period for Leno after he leaves his NBC show.
His last night hosting the show will be May 29 of next year. After that, Leno can’t appear on another network until his NBC contract runs out in 2010.
"Late Night with Conan O’Brien" is currently averaging 1.9 million viewers, or some 3 million fewer than Leno. It’s likely some Leno fans will sample O’Brien, though they could also bolt to Letterman. The same thing happened after Johnny Carson left "Tonight" in 1992.
It’s extremely unlikely O’Brien will be able to retain Leno’s full viewership, since he has a very different, much more offbeat style of humor than his predecessor. Older viewers especially, the ones who haven’t already turned to Comedy Central’s "Daily Show" or "Colbert Report," are expected to click away from O’Brien.
But will those viewers still be available up to a year later, when Leno returns?
Leno's comedy, which sometimes seems dated with its references to the Menendez brothers and Bill Clinton’s womanizing, will seem even moreso in two years.
Another factor is ABC's "Nightline" and its 3.4 million viewers. In going with Leno, ABC would risk alienating that audience, which has stuck with the show through a variety of changes over the past two and a half years, since Ted Koppel left.
Canceling "Nightline" would eliminate broadcast’s only non-comedy late-night option. If those viewers are angry, they won’t try out Leno. Instead they will likely move over to cable or turn off the TV entirely.
***
Meanwhile, in other dayparts for the week ended July 6, NBC’s “Meet the Press” was preempted due to the network’s coverage of Wimbledon, and that helped CBS’s “Face the Nation” to first among the Sunday morning shows in total viewers with 2.74 million and among viewers 25-54 with a 0.8 rating. ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” was second in viewers with 2.41 million and among 25-54s with a 0.6, with “Fox News Sunday” pulling 1.18 million viewers and a 0.4 among 25-54s.
In late night, with NBC’s shows also delayed due to Wimbledon coverage, CBS’s “The Late Show with David Letterman” was first for the week, averaging 3.5 million total viewers and a 1.0 rating among adults 18-49. ABC’s “Nightline” had 3.2 million viewers and a 0.9 rating in the demo, with NBC’s “Tonight Show with Jay Leno” bringing in 2.9 million viewers and a 0.8 18-49 rating. In late-late night, CBS’s “The Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson” had 1.6 million total viewers and a 0.5 in 18-49s, with NBC’s “Late Night with Conan O’Brien” at 1.4 million viewers and a 0.5, ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live” also at 1.4 million viewers and a 0.5, and NBC’s “Last Call with Carson Daly” bringing in 800,000 viewers and a 0.3 among 18-49s.
In morning shows, NBC’s “Today” was first with 4.9 million total viewers and a 3.7 household rating and 14 share, followed by ABC’s “Good Morning America” with 3.8 million viewers and a 3.0/11. CBS’s “Early Show” was third with 2.4 million total viewers and a 1.8/7.
CBS had the largest full daytime audience during the week, averaging 3.46 million viewers, and was tied for first among women 18-49 with a 1.1 rating. ABC had the second-largest audience, averaging 2.58 million viewers, and was also tied for first among women 18-49 with a 1.1 rating. NBC had a full daytime audience of 2.3 million and was third among women 18-49 with a 1.0 rating.
In evening network news for the week ended July 13, NBC’s “Nightly News with Brian Williams” was first among total viewers, averaging 7.5 million, and tied for first among 25-54s with a 1.8 average rating. ABC’s “World News with Charles Gibson” was second in viewers, averaging 7.31 million, and tied for first in 25-54s with a 1.8 rating, while CBS’s “Evening News with Katie Couric” was third for the week with 5.62 million total viewers and a 1.3 25-54 rating.
|
LATE-NIGHT RATINGS
Week Ending July 6, 2008
Five-day averages |
|
Program |
Network |
People 2+ |
Adults 18-49 |
|
Total viewers (millions) |
Rtg% |
|
Late Show with David Letterman |
CBS |
3.5 |
1.0 |
|
Nightline |
ABC |
3.2 |
0.9 |
|
Tonight Show with Jay Leno* |
NBC |
2.9 |
0.8 |
|
The Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson |
CBS |
1.6 |
0.5 |
|
Late Night with Conan O’Brien* |
NBC |
1.4 |
0.5 |
|
Jimmy Kimmel Live |
ABC |
1.4 |
0.5 |
|
Last Call with
Carson Daly* |
NBC |
0.8 |
0.3 |
|
*NBC’s programs were re-titled due to late-night
Wimbledon coverage and won’t count toward the season average.
Source: NTI
|
|
MORNING SHOW RATINGS
Week Ending July 6, 2008
Five-day averages |
|
Program |
Network |
Households |
People 2+ |
|
Rtg% |
Shr |
Total viewers (millions) |
|
Today |
NBC |
3.7 |
14 |
4.9 |
|
Good Morning
America |
ABC |
3.0 |
11 |
3.8 |
|
Early Show |
CBS |
1.8 |
7 |
2.4 |
|
Source: NTI |
|
DAYTIME RATINGS
Week Ending July 6, 2008
Five-day averages |
|
|
Total viewers (millions) |
Women 18-49 |
|
Network |
(millions) |
Rtg% |
|
CBS |
3.46 |
1.1 |
|
ABC |
2.58 |
1.1 |
|
NBC |
2.30 |
1.0 |
|
Source: NTI |
|
EVENING NETWORK NEWS RATINGS
Week Ending July 13, 2008
Five-day averages |
|
Program |
Network |
25-54s |
People 2+ |
|
Rtg% |
Total viewers (millions) |
|
NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams |
NBC |
1.8 |
7.500 |
|
ABC World News with Charles Gibson |
ABC |
1.8 |
7.310 |
|
CBS Evening News with Katie Couric |
CBS |
1.3 |
5.620 |
|
Source: Nielsen Media Research |
|
SYNDICATION
Ranked on Households
Week Ending June 29, 2008
|
|
# |
PROGRAMS |
Syndicator |
Households |
|
US
Rtg% |
(000) |
|
1
|
WHEEL OF FORTUNE
|
CTD
|
6.4
|
7267
|
|
2
|
JEOPARDY
|
CTD
|
5.5
|
6209
|
|
3
|
TWO-HALF MEN-SYN (AT)
|
WB
|
4.6
|
5144
|
|
4
|
JUDGE JUDY (AT)
|
CTD
|
4.5
|
5127
|
|
5
|
OPRAH WINFREY SHOW
|
CTD
|
4
|
4548
|
|
6
|
ENTERTAINMENT TONIGHT(AT)
|
CTD
|
3.9
|
4420
|
|
6
|
FAMILY GUY-MF-SYN (AT)
|
2/T
|
3.9
|
4406
|
|
8
|
DR. PHIL SHOW (AT)
|
CTD
|
3.5
|
3987
|
|
8
|
CSI MIAMI-SYN (AT)
|
CTD
|
3.5
|
3909
|
|
10
|
SEINFELD (AT)
|
SPT
|
3.4
|
3859
|
|
11
|
WHEEL OF FORTUNE WKND
|
CTD
|
3.1
|
3513
|
|
11
|
LIST OF A LIFETIME 6
|
NBU
|
3.1
|
3475
|
|
13
|
LAW & ORDER:SVU-SYN (AT)
|
NBU
|
3
|
3422
|
|
13
|
EVRY LVS RAYMOND-SYN(AT)
|
CTD
|
3
|
3410
|
|
13
|
GEORGE LOPEZ (AT)
|
WB
|
3
|
3336
|
|
16
|
INSIDE EDITION
|
CTD
|
2.7
|
3097
|
|
16
|
SEINFELD-WKND (AT)
|
SPT
|
2.7
|
3097
|
|
16
|
BUENA VISTA
VI
|
DAD
|
2.7
|
3044
|
|
16
|
FRIENDS (AT)
|
WB
|
2.7
|
3043
|
|
21
|
MILLIONAIRE (AT)
|
DAD
|
2.6
|
2988
|
|
21
|
KING OF QUEENS-SYN (AT)
|
SPT
|
2.6
|
2981
|
|
22
|
KING OF QUEENS-WKND (AT)
|
SPT
|
2.5
|
2821
|
|
23
|
LIVE WITH REGIS AND KELLY
|
DAD
|
2.4
|
2731
|
|
23
|
JUDGE JOE BROWN (AT)
|
CTD
|
2.4
|
2693
|
|
23
|
PEOPLE'S COURT (AT)
|
WB
|
2.4
|
2666
|
|
Source: Nielsen Media Research |
