Conan O’Brien’s taking over “The Tonight Show” from Jay Leno three weeks ago has been decidedly bumpy. His ratings have been slipping since his premiere, and last week CBS’s “Late Show with David Letterman” ranked No. 1 in total viewers for the first time in more than three years.
Yet media buyers and analysts think that in the long term O’Brien stands a better than even chance of pulling ahead to retain NBC’s nearly half-century dominance in late night.
Working in O’Brien's favor, among other things, is the sheer momentum of the "Tonight" show.
Still, to do so they say O'Brien must change, growing into the role as host on the far larger stage that is "Tonight." That means shedding the self-deprecating humor and physical comedy that that carried him for years as host of “Late Night with Conan O'Brien.”
It was an idiosyncratic style that puts viewers’ attention squarely on him. They had to like him to like the show.
On "Tonight," the draw is less the host than the show itself, with its traditions and big-name guests.
O'Brien appears to be attempting to make that transition, but at this point he looks to be stuck between his old persona and his first efforts at a new, more mainstream persona, and he's clearly uncomfortable.
“The thing that is complicating this is that O’Brien has really had some transition issues,” says Robert Thompson, an authority on pop culture and director of the Bleier Center for Television and Popular Culture at Syracuse University.
“The people I talk to don’t like the new Conan. This show isn’t nearly as interesting as his other show used to be.”
But critics are quick to note that Leno faced a similar challenge when he took over “Tonight” from Johnny Carson two decades ago. He too struggled.
When Leno first came on the show, he was seen as an edgy comedian by comparison to Carson. But Leno quickly morphed into an everyman’s comedian with inoffensive humor, essentially putting the focus on the show and his guests rather than himself.
In doing so, he won over Carson's longstanding fan base, and his ratings went up.
O’Brien's challenge now is to win over Leno’s viewers while retaining those who have followed him from his old show.
Last week, Letterman ranked No. 1 in viewers with 3.46 million people, compared to “Tonight’s” 3.32 million.
O’Brien’s lead in 18-49s has been slipping. Last week, he had a 0.5 rating point advantage over Letterman, down from a 1.4 advantage in his premiere week.
Another problem for O’Brien is NBC’s primetime ratings, which have been sinking. Much of O’Brien’s performance will depend on how well the network does in the fall, notably with Leno’s new weeknight show at 10 p.m.
Still, in the long run, provided O’Brien evolves into a host for a mass audience, he will probably beat Letterman.
Late-night viewers are notoriously loyal, sticking with a show like “Tonight” for decades, rather than switching channels. “Tonight” also historically gets bigger name guests than “Late Show.”
And O’Brien has a strong fan base among young viewers who so far are sticking with him.
In his second week on “Tonight,” O’Brien’s rating among 18-34s was 178 percent higher than Letterman’s, according to a Magna analysis of Nielsen ratings. In 18-49s, it was 80 percent. Letterman beat O’Brien among adults over 35 years old and over 50.
In any case, it probably won’t be clear who will ultimately win in late night for another few months, says David Scardino, entertainment specialist at RPA in Santa Monica, Calif.
“The thing about late night is it’s a lot more of a marathon than a race,” he says. “It will only be over a bit of time that we will be able to get a good handle on the daypart, probably in about six months.”
