Behind the shifts
in late-night viewing
Big news stories have pushed ABC's 'Nightline' to No. 1
By Diego Vasquez
Oct 4, 2011
For years "Nightline" was an afterthought in late-night, but the ABC newsmagazine has overtaken both CBS and NBC in late night to become No. 1 over the past year. "Nightline" finished the 2010-'11 season in first place in total viewers and adults 25-54, and the show kicked off the new TV season with its first-ever premiere week win among total viewers, 25-54s and 18-49s. While "Nightline" has seen viewership climb during this recent hot streak, both NBC's "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" and CBS's "The Late Show with David Letterman" have declined. Those dips probably aren't solely due to the increased competition on cable, where ratings for TBS's "Conan" with Conan O'Brien have fallen steeply since its debut last November. Rather there are also more people time-shifting primetime programs into late night and then DVRing the late-night shows to watch at another time. "Nightline," on the other hand, is seen as DVR-proof because it is driven by news, which is rarely tape-delayed. With the presidential election on the horizon, "Nightline's" lead may continue to grow. Brian Hughes, vice president and director of audience analysis Magna Global, talks to Media Life about why "Nightline" is hot, how to rate "Conan's" performance, and how DVRs have impacted late night.
What are three things to watch for in late night this season?
I wouldn’t say there are specific things to watch for this season. The players are in place at this point, and there doesn’t appear to be big changes on the horizon in terms of late night-specific programming.
How much of an impact are cable late-night shows like "The Daily Show" and "Conan" having on broadcast? Or are they really targeting different audiences?
They don’t necessarily impact each other directly. Broadcast shows like "The Tonight Show" and "Late Night with David Letterman" have median ages in the mid 50s and broader audiences overall.
"Daily Show," "Colbert Report" and "Conan," meanwhile, skew slightly more male and have median ages in the mid 30s.
The overall trend that everyone is subject to is the continuing proliferation of viewing options and resulting audience fragmentation.
"Conan" is coming up on its one-year anniversary. How would you rate the show's performance so far and why?
I’d call it a bit of a mixed bag.
On one hand, its household rating is hovering right around where "Lopez Tonight" was in 2010, but is much stronger among young men. In fact, by that measure, it’s a top-10 show in the 11 p.m. hour. "Daily Show" and "Colbert" still have a bit of an edge overall, though.
Would you say that returning Jay Leno to the "Tonight Show" spot has ultimately been a smart move for NBC? Why or why not?
In the end, I do think it was the right move for them. While Conan’s hosting stint did bring some younger viewers into the fold, it didn’t have the same broad appeal as Leno’s "Tonight Show" and thus lost ground against the competition.
Since Jay’s return, ratings have not quite returned to the levels they maintained before the switch, but it still typically edges out "The Late Show" on CBS.
"Nightline" has seen viewership increase over the past year, and it has passed both its broadcast rivals. What is driving this bump and why?
This seems to be driven by interest in current events, such as natural disasters, the royal wedding, and the death of Osama bin Laden. With the impending presidential election it’s likely this trend will continue.
How much is DVR viewership, people time-shifting shows to watch in late-night, impacting late-night viewing?
Since Nielsen changed that way TV usage is reported back in February, we have seen increases in late night that are likely due to DVR playback.
Both "The Tonight Show" and "The Late Show with David Letterman" have seen some ratings declines, but it’s hard to attribute that to DVR activity alone, as the fragmentation issue is always in play.
Viewership is fairly close in the late-late night category on ABC, NBC and CBS. What are the most important storylines to keep an eye on there?
Other than the "Nightline" increases we discussed, I don’t expect there to be a lot of meaningful shifts among those three networks.
What has been the most significant change in the late-night landscape over the past five years?
It’s really the same thing that has happened to television in general: The way people watch has changed. A late-night timeslot does not necessarily mean you have to stay awake to see it.
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