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Over-hyping of the internet as the killer medium

Mar 3, 2008

They were all around a few years ago, quoted in the papers, holding seminars, speaking the new vision. The new vision was just short of apocalyptic. This emerging medium, the internet, was going to irrevocably upend traditional media as we knew it, making much of it obsolete.

They were modern-day snake oil salesmen, but back then few seemed to notice. Then the crash came and everyone noticed. The dot.com bubble burst. Venture capitalists lost billions. The ad economy tanked.

Those left still standing said of the internet, perhaps we promised too much. We won't do it again.

They are doing it again. The new mantra is that the internet's an all-powerful engine of growth that's bound to level what media stands in its way. Just the other day, in a Media Life poll, a number of media buyers and planners worried that the web's effectiveness as an ad vehicle was again being oversold.

The reality is that the internet has taken its place alongside other media, and its growth has certainly coming at the expense of those more established media.

But the internet is not going to kill magazines or radio or the local daily newspaper. In so many ways, they are thriving now, despite all the grim talk, and they will continue to thrive alongside the internet even as this sorting out process continues. If anything, the internet serves to enhance what they do well.

None of these media is as vulnerable as the doomsters would have us believe.

People still listen to the radio while driving, even if some drive time is spent on the phone. Newspapers are taking a huge hit in ad revenue, for sure, and readership is declining, but they still have huge local impact, and they still show yearly profits in the double digits. People still like to read print newspapers. They will not go away.

The same for magazines. Some are closing, made redundant by the internet, but many are thriving. Magazines do for readers what no other medium can, and likewise for advertisers. As a newer competitor, the internet is forcing magazines to reinvent themselves, which is all for the good.

But the internet is not going to kill off magazines. It will make them stronger.

Indeed, if anything has changed in the last several years, it’s that the more established media have gotten very good at pairing up with the internet and using it to enhance what they offer consumers and advertisers. That’s smart.

When evaluating all the new hype over the internet, it’s important to keep several things in minds, and one is that through history newer media have not killed off older media.

TV didn’t kill off radio, radio did not kill off newspapers and magazines and neither of those killed off out-of-home advertising. As it turned out, in fact, the newer media simply increased the size of the pie. They increased consumer engagement with all media, and they gave advertisers more ways to reach those consumers.

Another point to keep in mind is that change tends to come a lot slower than many expect, and that’s especially so in media. People are slow to accept new technologies, very slow, until they see a clear benefit. They are very slow to give up their old technologies.

Yet another is that the internet is itself now an old medium. It’s been around more than a decade. A lot of the damage has already been done.

And the last is this. There’s a lot of money riding on the false notion that the internet is an all-powerful medium destined to chew up all that come before it.

Remember the last time around and all the cockamamie pronouncements about how the internet would change the world. Wall Street bought them, and they'll buy them again.

It's important that media people do not.



Gene Ely is the editor of Media Life.




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