If you guessed ABC or CBS you'd be wrong
By Tom Conroy Dec 16, 2009
Where have all NBC’s 10 p.m. viewers gone?
One might think to ABC and CBS.
Early on, when NBC first announced it was creating a weeknight “Jay Leno Show,” the thinking was that NBC drama fans would turn to the other two broadcast networks.
But new data suggests that the prized 18-49-year-old viewers have instead fled to basic cable, helping create such fall hits as FX’s “Sons of Anarchy” and TNT’s “Men of a Certain Age.”
According to Nielsen numbers crunched by Turner Broadcasting, this season so far (through the week ending Dec. 6) the three broadcast networks are down 14 percent from last year among 18-49s in the 10 p.m. hour on weeknights.
Nearly all that loss is attributable to the whopping 45 percent hit that NBC has taken by airing “The Jay Leno Show” in place of the dramas that filled the hour last year.
But neither ABC nor CBS have gained from NBC’s loss. ABC is up only one tenth of a rating point in the demo at 10 p.m.; CBS is flat. (Neither Fox nor The CW program the 10 p.m. hour.) Three networks’ combined 18-49 rating has dropped by 1.3 points in the hour.
Meanwhile, ad-supported cable is up 1.6 points in the demo during the 10 p.m. hour.
While some of that rise is no doubt attributable to a shift away from broadcast TV that has been continuing steadily ever since basic cable was invented, it seems likely that many of those 18-49s are disaffected NBC drama fans.
This fall, the 10 p.m. weeknight hour has become the hottest time slot in cable, home to such hits as TNT's “Men of a Certain Age,” FX's “Sons of Anarchy,” Bravo’s “Real Housewives of Atlanta” and “Top Chef,” Lifetime’s “Project Runway,” MTV’s “Teen Mom” and TBS's “House of Payne.”
Last week, 13 of the top 20 shows among 18-49s shown on ad-supported cable during weeknight primetime aired during the 10 p.m. hour. In the corresponding week last year, only eight of the top 20 aired during that hour.
Other recent reports have said that NBC’s lost viewers may have been using their DVRs at 10 p.m. on weeknights. At least some of them would have been watching broadcast programming that aired earlier — not an ideal change for the networks, but one they can live with.
If instead broadcast’s most sought-after demographic is turning to cable at 10, that’s serious bad news. If ABC and CBS can’t benefit from NBC’s decision to drop expensive scripted programming at 10, they might find themselves forced to emulate it.
***
In cable ratings for the week ended Dec. 13:
Top five networks in primetime (18-49s): ESPN, USA, TBS, ABC Family, TNT.
Top five networks in primetime (total viewers): ESPN, USA, ABC Family, TNT, Hallmark Channel.
Top movie (18-49s): ABC Family’s “Santa Baby 2” (Sunday, 8 p.m.) 1.61 million.
Top sporting event (total viewers): ESPN’s “Monday Night Football: Ravens/Packers” (Monday, 8:30 p.m.) 13.48 million.
Shows making the top 10 among 18-34s, 18-49s and 25-54s: ESPN’s “Monday Night Football: Ravens/Packers” (Monday, 8:30 p.m.); E!’s “Keeping Up with the Kardashians” (Sunday, 10 p.m.); Bravo’s “Top Chef” (Wednesday, 10 p.m.).
Show on the rise: E!’s “Keeping Up with the Kardashians,” Sunday 10 p.m. The fourth-season premiere averaged 4.1 million total viewers, up more than 140 percent versus the 1.7 million who tuned into the season three premiere.
Show on the decline: A&E’s “Hoarders,” Monday 10 p.m. The reality series fell 23 percent week-to-week among 18-49s, from 1.95 million viewers to 1.51 million.
TOP 25 AD-SUPPORTED CABLE NETWORKS Ranked on Household Rating
Week Ending December 13
Rank
Primetime
Total Day
Net
(000)
Net
(000)
1
ESPN
2419
NICK
1683
2
USA
2070
NAN *
1212
3
TNT
1624
USA
1187
4
HALL
1623
TNT
1101
5
FOXN
1590
ESPN
1019
6
FAM
1441
FOXN
944
7
AEN
1351
ADSM*
919
8
NAN
1317
HALL
867
9
TBSC
1249
TOON
790
10
FX
1157
AEN
736
11
LIF
984
FAM
713
12
TOON
977
TBSC
713
13
DISC
936
LIF
656
14
HGTV
917
FX
631
15
SYFY
917
FOOD
579
16
AMC
910
TRU
573
17
FOOD
845
DISC
561
18
TRU
836
HIST
561
19
HIST
830
HGTV
539
20
SPK
750
SPK
535
21
TLC
725
AMC
500
22
CMDY
717
TVLD
460
23
BRAV
691
SYFY
443
24
LMN
671
MTV
437
25
MTV
657
LMN
432
* Network broadcasts less than 51% of minutes in a 24-hour day.
Source: Turner Research from Nielsen Media Research data
TOP 25 AD-SUPPORTED CABLE PROGRAMS Ranked on Households
Week Ending December 13
Rank
Program
Net
(000)
1
Ravens/Packers
ESPN
9571
2
The Closer
TNT
4562
3
Men Of A Certain Age
TNT
4113
4
Heisman Trophy Present
ESPN
4045
5
2009 - Steelers vs. Browns
NFLN
3270
6
WWE Entertainment
USA
3250
7
WWE Entertainment
USA
3154
8
NCIS
USA
3104
9
Spongebob
NICK
3030
10
NCIS
USA
2999
11
Keeping Up With the Kardashians
EN
2911
12
NCIS
USA
2908
13
NCIS
USA
2847
14
NCIS
USA
2845
15
Spongebob
NICK
2831
16
Sportscenter
ESPN
2818
17
iCarly Movie: I Quit iCarly
NICK
2809
18
Spongebob
NICK
2808
19
Christmas In
Canaan
HALL
2783
20
The Penguins Of
Madagascar
NICK
2735
21
iCarly
NICK
2731
22
NCIS
USA
2718
23
Law & Order: SVU
USA
2706
24
The O'Reilly Factor
FOXN
2700
25
iCarly
NICK
2678
Source: Turner Research from Nielsen Media Research data
TOP 10 AD-SUPPORTED CABLE NETWORKS Adults 18-34
Week Ending December 13
Rank
PRIME TIME
TOTAL DAY
Net
(000)
Net
(000)
1
ESPN
801
ADSM*
463
2
USA
625
ESPN
391
3
TBSC
621
NICK
341
4
FX
478
TBSC
326
5
FAM
414
USA
317
6
AEN
412
NAN *
316
7
MTV
404
FX
252
8
TNT
362
MTV
244
9
CMDY
318
TNT
241
10
EN
318
FAM
222
* Network broadcasts less than 51% of minutes in a 24-hour day.
Source: Turner Research from Nielsen Media Research data
TOP 10 AD-SUPPORTED CABLE SHOWS Adults 18-34 Week Ending December 13
Rank
PROGRAM
NET
(000)
1
Ravens/Packers
ESPN
3303
2
Keeping Up With the Kardashians
EN
2206
3
Teen Mom
MTV
1324
4
Family Guy
ADSM
1315
5
It's Always Sunny In
Philadelphia
FX
1310
6
Family Guy
ADSM
1259
7
Real World/Road Rules: The Ruins
MTV
1245
8
Family Guy
ADSM
1232
9
Family Guy
ADSM
1217
10
Top Chef
BRAV
1215
Source: Turner Research from Nielsen Media Research data
TOP 10 AD-SUPPORTED CABLE NETWORKS Adults 18-49 Week Ending December 13
Rank
PRIME TIME
TOTAL DAY
Net
(000)
Net
(000)
1
ESPN
1632
ESPN
711
2
USA
1276
USA
665
3
TBSC
1067
ADSM*
650
4
FAM
976
TNT
623
5
TNT
919
NICK
567
6
FX
907
TBSC
567
7
AEN
863
NAN *
552
8
DISC
672
FX
480
9
SYFY
619
FAM
465
10
FOOD
581
AEN
424
* Network broadcasts less than 51% of minutes in a 24-hour day.
Source: Turner Research from Nielsen Media Research data
TOP 10 AD-SUPPORTED CABLE SHOWS Adults 18-49
Week Ending December 13
Rank
PROGRAM
NET
(000)
1
Ravens/Packers
ESPN
6932
2
Keeping Up With the Kardashians
EN
3135
3
2009 - Steelers vs. Browns
NFLN
2475
4
Heisman Trophy Present
ESPN
2468
5
WWE Entertainment
USA
2383
6
Top Chef
BRAV
2326
7
WWE Entertainment
USA
2189
8
Men Of A Certain Age
TNT
2074
9
Sportscenter
ESPN
2044
10
The Closer
TNT
1875
Source: Turner Research from Nielsen Media Research data
TOP 10 AD-SUPPORTED CABLE NETWORKS Adults 25-54
Week Ending December 13
PRIME TIME
TOTAL DAY
Rank
Net
(000)
Net
(000)
1
ESPN
1631
USA
666
2
USA
1251
TNT
665
3
TNT
984
ESPN
637
4
FAM
938
TBSC
487
5
TBSC
903
NAN *
475
6
AEN
895
NICK
461
7
FX
819
AEN
456
8
SYFY
667
ADSM*
434
9
DISC
664
FAM
434
10
FOOD
606
FX
432
* Network broadcasts less than 51% of minutes in a 24-hour day.
Source: Turner Research from Nielsen Media Research data
TOP 10 AD-SUPPORTED CABLE SHOWS Adults 25-54 Week Ending December 13
Rank
PROGRAM
NET
(000)
1
Ravens/Packers
ESPN
6967
2
Heisman Trophy Present
ESPN
2640
3
Men Of A Certain Age
TNT
2630
4
2009 - Steelers vs. Browns
NFLN
2618
5
The Closer
TNT
2431
6
Top Chef
BRAV
2375
7
WWE Entertainment
USA
2346
8
Keeping Up With the Kardashians
EN
2327
9
WWE Entertainment
USA
2196
10
Sportscenter
ESPN
1848
Source: Turner Research from Nielsen Media Research data
