What 2010 holds
for cable television
The big stories: Recovery and more interactivity
By Diego Vasquez
Jan 28, 2010
For many media, it's still too early to talk about an advertising turnaround. Not so for cable. After years of stealing share and advertisers from broadcast, cable was one of the first segments of media to stabilize and, at the end of the year, start to see slight year-to-year revenue gains. Now media people say cable is doing well in first quarter, and should perform decently for the remainder of the year based in part on the promise of greater interactive advertising deals that everyone from Canoe to Cablevision is pushing. The medium continues to challenge broadcast, too, in terms of viewer share, though broadcast still draws by far the biggest crowds to its programs. Turner Networks has been especially vocal about competing with broadcast, and USA recently moved its hit shows "White Collar" and "Psych" from Friday to Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, where they face stronger broadcast competition. Meanwhile, Fox News Channel followed a strong 2009 with huge ratings last week as viewers tuned in to watch election returns for the surprising Republican victory in the Massachusetts special Senate election. Marc Morse, senior vice president of national broadcast at RJ Palmer, talks to Media Life about the recovery underway in cable, what network had the best year, and why that could change very quickly.
What was the biggest story of 2009 in cable?
I don’t know if there was a biggest story.
The story may have been the financial meltdown. Every medium out there was hurt by fourth quarter ‘08, and it really scared a lot of advertisers and froze a lot of budgets.
But things now are starting to pick up. People are now paying moderate increases, rather than decreases.
What will be the three biggest storylines in cable this year?
I think the bigger cable networks will push their primetime schedules more heavily. I think USA did a good job getting to agencies and positioning their schedule. I think they do a better job than most.
The economy is showing signs of turning around. If the story in ‘09 was really the economy, then one this year is the turnaround.
Also, I think moving forward a lot of advertisers will look to do interactive deals in cable, and there are different varieties. DirecTV has interactive, and also there’s Canoe. It’s basically you’re watching advertising and you can interact with it, they’re like the middle man between the MSOs (multiple system operators), the cable networks and the ad community.
If you want more information about a product, you can communicate that with your operator. I think TV will become more interactive going forward.
Do you anticipate advertising in this category to begin recovery in first-half 2010? Why or why not? If not, then when?
Yes. I think in fourth quarter ‘09 it surprised a lot of people. People thought it would still be soft and everyone was predicting second and third quarter 2010 for it to start picking up, but it started in fourth quarter last year and it was a big shock.
They said , “Wow, there’s more money in the marketplace than we thought.” Instead of starting in second and third this year, in started in fourth and first.
Which cable network or networks had the best 2009? Why?
As far as positioning and stories I think USA did a really good job last year.
Their schedule is pretty strong in general. If you look at some of their programming, “Burn Notice” was a series that did extremely well for them. They’ve positioned themselves as kind of a primetime replacement, and I think you’ll start seeing that more and more from the bigger entertainment cable networks.
They’ll want to participate in the network upfront, especially USA. Although the shows still don’t do network ratings.
What cable network or networks had the most disappointing 2009?
I don’t really have any networks that were disappointing, to me they’d really have to implode on themselves.
I guess if NBC was a cable network they’d be the most disappointing. They had a great late-night schedule and prime was a mess, but now both are broke. But there is no is cable disappointment.
How important is network branding in cable? Who has done the best job at it?
I think it is important, but it can also hurt you at the same time. If you brand yourself too narrowly it can end up hurting you.
But if you do it the right way, like USA, Turner or Lifetime, kind of branding yourself as the network alternative, you’re putting yourself in a big position.
Whereas if you’re branded a niche network, it can be tough. MTV probably has every single teen category out there and yet they’re still expected to grow business, but if you have everyone already then what do you do?
Whereas USA, Turner, Lifetime and the bigger general cable networks are more open to grabbing all sorts of categories of both programs and advertising.
Did you see any variance in cable subscription rates as the recession peaked? Were people cutting it to save money, or subscribing in greater numbers to gain cheap entertainment?
No, I didn’t see that. I think it’s still cheaper to stay home and watch cable than to go out to a fancy restaurant or go out and spend a lot of money.
Although I don’t think subscriptions increased either.
What is the single-most important thing for media buyers and planners to know about cable in 2010?
There’s no one single most important thing to know about it, but what’s important is that planners and buyers keep close tabs on the changes that happen in cable.
Networks can be hot one minute then have ratings fall off the next. You don’t want to stereotype a network either way, good or bad, because things change from quarter to quarter.
USA had a great year last year, but it doesn’t mean they’ll have a great year this year. Ratings go up and down very quickly. Stay on top with what goes on in cable because it fluctuates.
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