Outlook for cable
in 2010: Up and up
Recovery may already be setting in for the medium
By Toni Fitzgerald
Dec 23, 2009
Only a handful of media have held up well during this recession, and cable television is certainly one of them.
Third-quarter numbers suggest that the recovery so many other media are hoping for has already begun for cable. Next year should bring even better advertising numbers, as well as a continuing rise in viewership, buzz and awards for both basic and premium cable networks.
Year to date, cable advertising is either up or down only slightly, depending on which numbers you rely on. By comparison, television as a whole is down some 12 percent, while categories such as local newspapers, radio and magazines have fallen by more than 20 percent.
And 2010 looks to be an even stronger year for the medium. Magna's chief forecaster, Brian Wieser, sees cable growing between 4 and 6 percent next year, after a dip of nearly 4 percent this year.
Other ad trackers say this year's cable advertising numbers were even better. Year to date, Nielsen says cable spending is up 9 percent, with Spanish-language cable up even more, 36.7 percent.
The reason is pretty simple. At a time when expensive entertainment, such as ball games and Broadway, are losing audience, cable continues to gain viewers as a relatively cheap alternative. More viewers translate to more ad dollars.
"Cable provides people with thousands of hours of content and entertainment programming to engage in, and people want to be entertained," says Cross MediaWorks CEO Marc Krigsman.
"Wallets are tight right now, so I think you are going to continue to see that growth. Beyond being economical, the most powerful platform we have is still the television. You sit back and it delivers entertainment to you."
Cable gained in viewers, prestige and buzz this year, continuing the growth that began earlier this decade, when cable's share of viewership surpassed broadcast for the first time. It has yet to relinquish that lead.
Year to date through early December, cable's household share had nudged up 2 percent compared to last year, to 60.6 percent, at least its 10th consecutive year of growth, according to Turner Networks analysis of Nielsen data.
The four major broadcast networks' share dipped 2 percent, their third straight year of decline, to 32.1.
Cable also went over a 50 share among adults 18-49 for the first time, hitting 50.7, though as broadcasters continue to point out, they have the top shows overall on television while cable delivers mostly niche hits.
Still, the audience for those niche hits is increasing. Earlier this month, USA's "Monk" drew more than 9 million total viewers for its final episode, setting a cable record for a scripted series. Two months earlier, ESPN's "Monday Night Football" broke its own record, averaging more than 21 million viewers to become the most-watched program in cable history.
"MNF" and "Monk" dominated the television buzz on their respective weeks, and indeed cable has become more of a place for the so-called "event" viewing that used to dominate broadcast.
The most-watched original movie on any network over recent years, "High School Musical 2," aired on Disney Channel, and perhaps the most-buzzed-about series finale of the decade, "The Sopranos," aired on pay cable.
Even the highly anticipated "Seinfeld" reunion aired not on NBC but on HBO, as a storyline on "Curb Your Enthusiasm."
And that has helped cable emerge as the undisputed awards season champ. This year AMC's "Mad Men" captured its second consecutive best drama Emmy award, while the network's "Breaking Bad" got a best dramatic actor award for Bryan Cranston and Glenn Close won best dramatic actress for FX's "Damages."
For next month's Golden Globe awards, premium and basic cable networks received 34 nominations, compared to a mere 13 for broadcast.
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